A Statistical and Geographical Analysis of Workplace Accidents in England and Wales Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy by Linda Woods May 2017 Acknowledgements It has only been through the help and support of numerous people that this research has come to fruition, and to these people I am extremely grateful. First and foremost, I thank my supervisor, Professor Chris Lloyd, who has supported me throughout my studies. I have been incredibly fortunate to have such a knowledgeable, patient and encouraging supervisor who has helped guide me over the course of this research. Many thanks also to Professor Alex Singleton who convinced me to pursue my doctoral degree and provided many opportunities over the years, including presenting at two international conferences. I also extend this thanks to Professor Chris Brunsdon for contributing invaluable technical advice and support. Funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and support from the Health and Safety Executive, as the CASE award partner, made this research a reality, and to both I am hugely grateful. A special thanks goes to my fellow colleagues at the University of Liverpool for their support and advice, particularly during the write up stages of the thesis. The support from my friends and family has been immeasurable. A huge thanks in particular goes to my mother-in-law, Wendy Woods, for proof reading every word I have written. My Dad has been a pillar of support throughout my studies and I cannot thank him enough for his wisdom and guidance. My mum, whom we miss dearly, deserves an enormous thank you for providing me with endless opportunities and always encouraging me to succeed. The final thank you has to be to my husband, John Woods. His unwavering support, even through the most stressful times, has provided me with the momentum to keep going, for which I will be eternally grateful. Abstract This research investigates the risk-factors associated with workplace accidents by analysing data generated by Reporting of Injuries, Diseases and Dangerous Occurrences Regulations (RIDDOR), a framework in which the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) collects reports of workplace accidents and injuries. It is reported by the HSE that work-related accidents are a significant problem facing today’s workforce. Unfortunately, however, occupational health and safety have largely been under researched. Little work has previously been carried out surrounding the key determinants of workplace accidents, how these determinants might vary geographically, and whether physical conditions, such as the weather and levels of daylight, might impact levels of occupational health and safety. This research therefore seeks to address these gaps by examining the socio-economic and physical determinants of workplace accidents and injuries, and examines whether the relationships between these risk-factors and accident rates vary geographically and seasonally. Three distinct methods are utilised in analysing the RIDDOR data. These methods include: a global regression analysis based on a set of socio-economic characteristics of workers, a Geographically Weighted Regression analysis of these characteristics on three case study regions: North West England, North East England and London, and text mining, in the form of topic modelling the free-text fields of descriptions of incidents reported under RIDDOR. The key results reveal that age and socio-economic class are influencing factors of workplace accidents. Occupation type is also found to have an effect on workplace accident risk, with workers in low skilled jobs associated with an increased risk of having a work-related injury compared to workers in highly skilled occupations. The relationships between these risk-factors and accident rates have been found to vary geographically, with risk-factors appearing to have a stronger relationship with workplace accidents in particular seasons compared to others. Policy recommendations are formulated to equip the HSE with the knowledge of the key high-risk groups within the workplace population so that preventative measures can be established to reduce the rates of workplace accidents in the future. Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................ v List of Tables ........................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aims and Objectives ............................................................................................................ 5 1.3 Outline of Thesis Structure ................................................................................................. 8 Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................... 11 Literature Review ..................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2 Social Factors ...................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 The Individual ........................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 The Job/Organisation .............................................................................................................. 22 2.3 Environmental Factors ...................................................................................................... 30 2.3.1 Weather Conditions .................................................................................................................. 30 2.3.2 Daylight Hours .......................................................................................................................... 32 2.4 Geographic Variations ....................................................................................................... 35 2.5 Background to Health and Safety in Great Britain ....................................................... 38 2.5.1 Health and Safety Policy and Legislation .............................................................................. 38 2.5.2 Health and Safety Statistics ...................................................................................................... 40 2.5.3 Future Outlook of Health and Safety .................................................................................... 43 2.6 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 45 Chapter 3 ........................................................................................................... 49 Data and Methods Review ...................................................................................... 49 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 49 3.2 Data Review ........................................................................................................................ 50 3.2.1 Data Context: Introduction to RIDDOR ............................................................................. 50 3.2.2 The RIDDOR Sample Data .................................................................................................... 53 3.2.3 Census Data ............................................................................................................................... 61 3.3 Methods ............................................................................................................................... 64 3.3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 64 3.3.2 Use of Software ......................................................................................................................... 64 3.3.3 Global Regression Modelling- Generalised Linear Models ................................................ 66 3.3.4 Local Regression Modelling- Geographically Weighted Regression ................................. 70 3.3.5 Text Mining and Topic Modelling ......................................................................................... 76 3.4 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 79 Chapter 4 ........................................................................................................... 81 Exploratory Analysis of the RIDDOR Data ............................................................. 81 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 81 4.2 Background Statistics on RIDDOR Records ................................................................. 82 4.3 Characteristics of Injured Employees