Packaging Tomorrow Modelling the Material Input for European Packaging in the 21st Century M.P. Hekkert L.A.J. Joosten E. Worrell 98001 Packaging Tomorrow Modeling the Material Input for European Packaging in the 21st Century M.P. Hekkert L.A.J. Joosten E. Worrell This work was funded by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Department of Science Technology and Society Utrecht University Padualaan 14 NL- 3584 CH Utrecht The Netherlands Report No. 98001 ISBN 90-73958-39-3 March 1997 1 2 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 THE MATTER PROJECT................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 PACKAGING IN EUROPE.................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 AIM AND STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT ........................................................................................... 6 2 AUTONOMOUS DEVELOPMENTS............................................................................................... 9 2.1 EUROPEAN POLICIES IN REDUCING PACKAGING MATERIAL. ........................................................... 9 2.2 AUTONOMOUS DEVELOPMENTS FOR THE MARKAL MODEL ....................................................... 10 3 COSTS AND ENERGY CALCULATIONS METHOD FOR PACKAGING OPTIONS.......... 11 3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 11 3.2 CAPITAL COSTS............................................................................................................................ 11 3.3 VARIABLE COSTS......................................................................................................................... 12 3.3 ENERGY USE ................................................................................................................................15 4 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR FOOD BOTTLES ................................ 19 4.1 EUROPEAN MARKET ..................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 GLASS BOTTLES AND JARS ........................................................................................................... 20 4.3 PET BOTTLES............................................................................................................................... 23 4.4 LIQUID BOARD ............................................................................................................................. 26 4.5 METAL PACKAGING...................................................................................................................... 28 4.6 PC AND HDPE BOTTLE................................................................................................................ 31 4.7 PLASTIC POUCH ........................................................................................................................... 32 4.8 THERMOFORMED CUPS................................................................................................................. 32 5 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR NON-FOOD BOTTLES ...................... 35 5.1 IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS............................................................................................................... 35 6 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR BOXES AS PRIMARY PACKAGING ............................................................................................................................................................... 39 6.1 FOOD AND NON-FOOD BOXES ....................................................................................................... 39 6.2 MATERIALS FOR BOXES................................................................................................................ 39 6.3 IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS............................................................................................................... 40 6.4 MODELING BOXES........................................................................................................................ 41 7 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR FLEXIBLE PACKAGING.................. 43 7.1 WESTERN EUROPEAN MARKET..................................................................................................... 43 7.2 OPTIONS....................................................................................................................................... 51 7.3 MODELING FOR MATTER........................................................................................................... 55 8 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR CARRIER BAGS ................................. 59 8.1 EUROPEAN SITUATION.................................................................................................................. 59 8.2 MODELING CARRIER BAGS ........................................................................................................... 59 8.3 IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS............................................................................................................... 59 9 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR INDUSTRIAL SACKS ........................ 61 9.1 EUROPEAN SITUATION.................................................................................................................. 61 9.2 MODELING INDUSTRIAL BAGS ..................................................................................................... 61 10 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR INDUSTRIAL BOXES...................... 63 10.1 CRATES...................................................................................................................................... 63 10.2 TRANSPORT BOXES .................................................................................................................... 64 10.3 INDUSTRIAL CONTAINERS .......................................................................................................... 66 11 CURRENT AND FUTURE MATERIAL INPUT FOR INDUSTRIAL PALLETS ................. 69 11.1 THE EUROPEAN MARKET........................................................................................................... 69 3 11.2 MATERIAL OPTIONS ................................................................................................................... 69 11.3 PALLET POOLS............................................................................................................................ 71 11.4 COSTS OF PALLET PRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 72 12 CALCULATING THE DEMAND FOR PACKAGING IN 2000 AND BEYOND ................... 73 12.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 73 12.2 BEVERAGES, CARBONATED........................................................................................................ 74 12.3 BEVERAGES, NON CARBONATED ................................................................................................ 75 12.4 DAIRY PRODUCTS, NO MILK ....................................................................................................... 75 12.5 WET FOOD.................................................................................................................................. 76 12.6 DRY FOOD, NON SUSCEPTIBLE.................................................................................................... 76 12.7 DRY FOOD, SUSCEPTIBLE ........................................................................................................... 77 12.8 NON FOOD LIQUIDS .................................................................................................................... 78 12.9 DRY NON FOOD .......................................................................................................................... 78 12.10 CARRIER BAGS ......................................................................................................................... 79 12.11 INDUSTRIAL BAGS .................................................................................................................... 79 12.12 INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT PACKAGING....................................................................................... 80 12.13 INDUSTRIAL PALLETS ............................................................................................................... 80 12.14 PALLET WRAPPING ................................................................................................................... 81 13 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS......................................................................................................... 88 13.1 PACKAGING VOLUME ................................................................................................................. 88 13.2 PACKAGING REDUCTION ............................................................................................................ 88 7 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 91 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................... 92 APPENDIX I: LIFECYCLE COSTS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION