USAID OFFICE OF FOOD FOR PEACE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO BELLMON ESTIMATION September 2010 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Fintrac Inc. USAID Office of Food For Peace DR Congo Bellmon Estimation September 2010 The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Prepared by Fintrac Inc. Fintrac Inc. www.fintrac.com [email protected] US Virgin Islands 3077 Kronprindsens Gade 72 St. Thomas, USVI 00802 Tel: (340) 776-7600 Fax: (340) 776-7601 Washington, D.C. 1436 U Street NW, Suite 303 Washington, D.C. 20009 USA Tel: (202) 462-8475 Fax: (202) 462-8478 USAID-BEST Washington, D.C. 1436 U Street NW, Suite 104 Washington, D.C. 20009 USA Tel: (202) 742-1055 Fax: (202) 462-8478 BEST ANALYSIS – DR CONGO Prepared by Fintrac Inc. Preface During the months of July, August, and September 2010, the Bellmon Estimation Studies for Title II (BEST) team undertook an analysis aimed at generating recommendations for a Bellmon Determination to be made by USAID. The purpose of the analysis was to determine that any direct distribution and monetization of US agricultural commodities provided for use in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during FY11 through Title II meet the criteria set forth in the Bellmon Amendment. Based on USAID Mission feedback received by late October 2010, the study team updated select information within this report using the most current available data as of early November 2010. BEST ANALYSIS – DR CONGO Prepared by Fintrac Inc. Table of Contents Acronyms and Notes .................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Country Background ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Food Aid ..............................................................................................................................................................................2 1.3. Adequacy of Ports, Storage, and Transportation ................................................................................................................3 1.4. Monetization Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.5. Distribution Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 2. Country Overview.............................................................................................................. 10 2.1. Country Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2. Economic Overview .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.3. Agriculture .........................................................................................................................................................................18 Chapter 3. Food Aid Overview ............................................................................................................ 33 3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................33 3.2. Previous Initiatives ............................................................................................................................................................ 33 3.3. Planned Initiatives ............................................................................................................................................................. 37 Chapter 4. Adequacy of Ports, Storage, and Inland Transport ....................................................... 41 4.1. Ports ..................................................................................................................................................................................42 4.2. Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................57 4.3. Road ..................................................................................................................................................................................59 4.4. Air ......................................................................................................................................................................................62 4.5. River ..................................................................................................................................................................................62 4.6. Storage ..............................................................................................................................................................................62 Chapter 5. Monetization Analysis ...................................................................................................... 65 5.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................65 5.2. Monetization History .......................................................................................................................................................... 65 5.3. Initial Commodity Selection ............................................................................................................................................... 67 5.4. Market Analysis – Wheat .................................................................................................................................................. 69 5.5. Market Analysis - Wheat Flour .......................................................................................................................................... 75 5.6. Market Analysis: Vegetable Oil ........................................................................................................................................ 77 5.7. Market Analysis: Nonfat Dry Milk ..................................................................................................................................... 80 5.8. Market Analysis – Maize ................................................................................................................................................... 80 5.9. Market Analysis – Rice ...................................................................................................................................................... 85 5.10. Market Analysis: Beans .................................................................................................................................................... 88 5.11. Regional Monetization ....................................................................................................................................................... 91 Chapter 6. Distribution Analysis ........................................................................................................ 94 6.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................94 6.2. Objectives of this Distribution Analysis .............................................................................................................................94 6.3. Food Aid Distribution Modalities and Geographic Targeting for FY11-FY15 Title II Non-emergency Programming Cycle 94 6.4. Localized Food Deficits, and Private Market Capacity to Meet Localized Food Deficits ..................................................96 6.5. Key Considerations for All Distributed Food Aid Interventions in the DR Congo ............................................................105 6.6. General Guidelines to Ensure Proposed FFW, FFA, and PM2A Programs Will Not Result In Production Disincentive or Market Disruption ...........................................................................................................................................................................110 6.7. Existing Food Aid and Cash Transfer Programs .............................................................................................................116 BEST ANALYSIS – DR CONGO Prepared by Fintrac Inc. Acronyms and Notes ACP Africa-Caribbean-Pacific ADRA Adventist Development and Relief Agency BCC Banque Centrale du Congo BCC Behavior Change Communication BEST Bellmon Estimation Studies for Title II BPI Bureau Projet Ituri BTC Belgian Technical Cooperation BXW Banana Xanthomonas Wilt C:AVA Cassava: Adding Value for Africa Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development CAADP Program CAKO Commission Agricole du Kasai Oriental CAR Central African Republic CARE Cooperative for Assistance