View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Archive Ouverte en Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication Potential benefits of wind forecasting and the application of more-care in Ireland Ruairi Costello, Damian Mccoy, Philip O’Donnel, Geoff Dutton, Georges Kariniotakis To cite this version: Ruairi Costello, Damian Mccoy, Philip O’Donnel, Geoff Dutton, Georges Kariniotakis. Potential benefits of wind forecasting and the application of more-care in Ireland. Med power 2002, Nov Athènes, Greece. hal-00534004 HAL Id: hal-00534004 https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00534004 Submitted on 4 May 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Potential Benefits of Wind Forecasting and the Application of More-Care in Ireland R. Costello*, D. McCoy, P. O’Donnell A.G. Dutton G.N. Kariniotakis ESB National Grid CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Ecole des Mines de Paris/ARMINES, Power System Operations Energy Research Unit Centre d’Energétique Ireland United Kingdom France. * ESB National Grid, 27 Fitzwilliam Street Lower, Dublin 2, Tel: +353-1-7027245, Fax: +353-1- 4170539, [email protected] ABSTRACT: The Irish Electricity System and its future II. THE IRISH ELECTRICTY SYSTEM developments with regard to the integration of wind energy is described. The importance of an accurate wind forecasting tool Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland form one and the development of the More-Care wind modules for use by synchronous system at 50 Hz. With regards to the Republic the Transmission System Operator (TSO) in Ireland is outlined. An accurate tool for wind forecasting is anticipated to greatly help of Ireland, 93% of the energy is from thermal plant, 4 % in permitting greater penetration of renewable energy sources in from hydro and 3 % from wind and other renewables. The our island system. Irish electricity transmission network consists of over 5,800 km of lines and cables at 400 kV, 220 kV and 110 kV and Keywords: Wind Forecasting, More-Care, TSO, Hirlam. is operated from the National Control Centre in Dublin by ESB National Grid (TSO license). I. INTRODUCTION LOGUESTOWN COOLKEERAGH COLERAINE LIMAVADY KILTOY Presently there is 137 MW of wind generation installed in LISAGHMORE LETTERKENNY BALLYMENA LARNE BALLYLUMFOR KELLS STRABANE KILROOT. MAGHERAFELT ANTRIM the Republic of Ireland which amounts to around 3% of BINBANE GOLAGH NORTHERN POW ER STN W EST RATHGAEL IRELAND HANNAHSTOWN LISBURN CASTLEREAGH DUNGANNON system capacity. In May 2002 contracts were awarded, CATHALEEN'S CLIFF WARINGSTOWN FALL TANDRAGEE BALLYAHINCH ENNISKILLEN BANBRIDGE under the fifth Alternative Energy Requirement (AER) LISDRUM SLIGO TAW NAGHMORE NEW RY BELLACORICK competition, to 354 MW of wind projects with planning MOY ARIGNA SHANKILL DUNDALK LOUTH CARRICK-ON- SHANNON MEATH HILL GILRA permission by the Irish government [1]. CASTLEBAR FLAGFORD DRYBRIDGE RICHMOND NAVAN LANESBORO PLATIN This was a step in the right direction towards the target KNOCKUMBER GLASMORE MULLINGAR WOODLAND CLOON ATHLONE FINGLAS of 500 MW of renewable capacity by 2005 in Ireland [2]. If GRANGE RHODE NORTH WALL MAYNOOTH RINAW ADE POOLBEG SHELLYBANKS GALW AY CASHLA THORNSBERRY INCHICORE SHANNONBRIDGE BLAKE CARRICKMINES FERBANE Ireland is to meet the E.U. target of 13.2 % of total energy SOMERSET NEW BRIDGE KILTEEL FASSAROE DUNSTOWN POLLAPHUCA DALLOW TURLOUGH HILL from renewables by 2010, wind farm development will PORTLAOISE IKERRIN SHELTON ARKLOW have to move at a more accelerated pace than up to now [3]. ENNIS CARLOW ABBEY TULLABRACK KELLIS DRUMLINE ARDNACRUSHA PROSPECT THURLES MUNGRET AHANE MONEYPOINT CASTLEFARM MONETEEN KILLONAN KILKENNY The Transmission System Operator (TSO) requires an TARBE RT AUGHINISH CRANE LIMERICK RATHKEALE TRIEN DOON WEXFORD CAHIR BALLYDINE accurate and reliable wind power forecasting system if the ANNER TRALEE CHARLEVILLE WATERFORD GREAT ISLAND BUTLERSTOWN large-scale integration of wind energy is to be successful. MALLOW KNOCKEARAGH BARRYMORE DUNGARVAN KNOCKRAHA KILBARRY MIDLETON This project produces forecasts for eleven wind farms INNISCARRA MACROOM MARINA TRABEG AGHADA CARRIGADROHID RAFFEEN BRINNY with installed capacity of 69.49 MW and uses HIRLAM BANDON DUNMANWAY weather forecasts provided by Met Éireann as input. This paper: Figure 1: The Irish Transmission System 1. Describes the difficulties posed by increased levels of wind penetration for the TSO. The nominal installed capacity in the Republic of 2. Introduces the two More-Care wind forecasting modules Ireland is currently 5.5 GW. Since the opening of the for use in the National Control Centre in Dublin and market in February 2000, 3 thermal Independent Power presents some preliminary results. Producers (IPP) totalling 862 MW have been connected to the transmission system. The System peak in 2001 occurred in December and was 4091 MW. 24.2 TWhr of energy was generated that year. In 2000 the peak of 3844 MW was also Paper accepted for presentation at the 3rd Mediterranean in December and 22.9 TWhr was the annual system energy. Conference and Exhibition on Power Generation, The layout of the Irish Transmission System in the Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion Republic and the North can be seen from Figure 1. MED POWER 2002, jointly organized by National Technical University of Athens, The level of interconnection between the South and IEE Hellas, Israel and Cyprus, North systems has increased with the upgrading of the main Athens, Greece, November 4-6, 2002 north-south interconnector between the ESB 220 kV system and the NIE 275 kV system and the upgrading of two (formerly standby) interconnectors at 110 kV through the use of phase shifting transformers. In addition the new 500 MW HVDC link between NIE and Scotland has been in commercial operation since January 2002. III. ANTICIPATED PROBLEMS FOR THE TSO IV. TSO REQUIREMENTS The main obligation of a Transmission System Operator In order to fully benefit from a large-scale integration of wind (TSO) is to provide an efficient, reliable and secure power on the Irish power system it would be a great transmission system, whilst ensuring efficient system co- advantage to know as far as possible in advance, with a given ordination and real-time electricity supply. amount of certainty, the wind power production. This paper The present level of wind generation is discernible to the deals with forecasting 48 hours in advance but an accurate 7- System Operator and impacts on the scheduling and dispatch day forecast or even longer would be very beneficial to the of conventional marginal plant. Without an accurate forecast TSO in operating the electricity system. It is very important the Operator has to be conservative and assume there is little that the forecast is both accurate and reliable. or no wind. Under-exploiting renewables in this way can The requirements of the transmission system operator for increase the already large costs of electricity in islands. The a wind power forecasting system can be summarised as follows: trend is towards larger wind farms with the likelihood of large offshore wind farms – predominately along the East a) Forecasts should be available for individual windfarms Coast where it is shallow. and groups of wind farms. b) forecasts should be wind power output, in MW, rather 700 than wind speed, 600 c) hourly forecasts extending out to a forecast horizon of 500 at least 48 hours, 400 Historical MW d) an accurate forecast with an associated confidence 300 Planned* level (dispatchers would tend to be more conservative 200 when dealing with larger forecast uncertainties), 100 e) a reliable forecast of likely changes in wind power 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 production and Year f) a better understanding of the meteorological conditions which would lead to the forecasts being poor g) Use of historical data to improve accuracy of forecast Figure 2: Planned Growth of Wind Energy [1]. over time - the method for doing this needs to be built As wind farms increase in size, it is extremely important into the program for the System Operator to receive on-line data for each wind farm: V. MORE-CARE WIND MODULES • wind speed • kV The objective of the More-Care project has been to develop • wind direction • Availability an advanced Energy Management System (EMS) to assist the • temperature • plant status operators of a medium or a large isolated power system • pressure • potential output For the case of Ireland, More-Care has been configured to • MW • Setpoint operate as a stand-alone wind forecasting platform for the • MVAR prediction of the output of eleven wind farms. As part of the More-Care platform two wind modules This online data – especially the MW signal – is very were developed for Ireland by: useful for Operators as another measure of accuracy of the forecast. 1. Ecole des Mines de Paris / Armines Due to the nature of the Irish System in so far as it is a 2. Rutherford Appleton Lab (RAL) small island system and wind generators displace Both modules are developed in a generic way so as to be conventional generators, it is necessary to also consider able to handle future installations of wind farms. For this effects such as: reason, the modules communicate with a relational database • Frequency regulation that handles all static parameters as well as input and output • Active Power Control (dispatchability) data. • Reactive Power Control • Reserve A. Wind Power Forecasting MODULE 1 • Marginal plant ARMINES has developed a wind power forecasting module • Fault ride through capability integrating short and long-term models [4].