Energy Use and Climate Change: Challenges & Opportunities in Indian Mega-Cities P. R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented at the International Symposium on ‘Urban Energy and Carbon Management: Challenges for Science and Policy’ February 4, 2008, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India World Urbanization Trends Population (millions) Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (United Nations) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Mega Cities • As per the UN definition a mega city has > 10 million population. At Indian Mega cities present there are 20 mega cities in the world, out of which three are in Delhi India (Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi). (12.8 M) • By 2015, there will be 33 mega- Ahmedabad Kolkata cities, 27 of them in the developing (4.5 M) (13.2 M) world. Mumbai (16.4 M) Hyderabad (5.5 M) • By 2025, there are likely to be close Chennai Bangalore (6.4 M) to 40 mega cities, out of which 6 are (5.7 M) expected to be Indian cities. In India, cities with more than 4 million population are classified as mega cities. At present there are 7 such cities. Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Urbanization in India Census Urban Urban to Total Growth Rate No. of Year Population Population (%) UAs/Towns (million) Decadal Annual (%) (%) 1951 62 17.3 41.4 3.5 2843 1961 79 18.0 26.4 2.3 2365 1971 109 19.9 38.2 3.2 2590 1981 159 23.3 46.1 3.8 3378 1991 217 25.7 36.2 3.1 3768 2001 285 27.8 31.1 2.7 4368 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Urbanization in India % of Urban No. of Towns Annual Census Year Population growth rate 1991 2001 1991 2001 1991-2001 (%) Class I (including Metro Cities) 300 393 64.9 68.7 3.4 Class II (50K – 99,999) 345 401 11 9.7 1.8 Class III (20K - 49,999) 947 1151 13.3 12.2 2.2 Class IV (10K-19,999) 1167 1344 7.9 6.8 1.6 Class V (5K – 9999) 740 888 2.6 2.4 1.9 Class VI (<5K) 197 191 0.3 0.2 0.8 Metro Cities (UA) 23 35 33.3 37.8 4.3 (above 1 million) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India A Case Study of Ahmedabad City Gujarat, India Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: City Growth Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad City Population • 1991: 3.31 million • 2001: 4.51 million Area • 1991: 250 sq.km • 2001: 450 sq.km Type Land Cover (%) Existing Proposed Built-up 40 30 Area under Plantation 5 18 Un-built area 10 27 Paved area 30 9 Ahmedabad City (October 2000) Tar surfaces (roads) 15 15 Vegetation Water Built-up area Open Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: City Built-Form Decadal change Land Cover (1991-2000) Very Dense built-up area 46% Medium Dense built-up area 227% Built-up + Sparse Vegetation 91% Barren -38% Sparse Vegetation -23% Dense Vegetation -35% Water bodies -45% Total Sand 91% Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Vehicles in Ahmedabad (2004) ¾ Vehicles = 1.45 million (majority two wheelers) ¾ 1.4 vehicles per family ¾ @ half personal vehicles (4 & 2 -wheelers) ¾ Buses and taxis 7%; 3-wheelers 13% ¾ 100,000 vehicles are added every year Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: Industries ¾ Textile Processing ¾ Foundry, Crushing and Grinding Units ¾ Thermal Power Plant ¾ Coal Yards and Ash Yards/Ponds ¾ Dyes, Intermediates and Chemicals ¾ Dairy, Flour Mills, Bakeries, Groundnut Roasting Units ¾ Precious Metal Refining Units ¾ Brick Kilns and Incinerators Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: Electricity Consumption 4000 Year Domestic Commercial Industrial Others 3500 1990 19% 9% 61% 11% 3000 2500 1995 24% 11% 55% 10% 2000 1500 2000 32% 13% 42% 13% 1000 2005 35% 14% 45% 7% Consumption (Mill. KWh) 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Ahmedabad Electricity Company Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad City Climate Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: City Climate Average Temperature 50 44.3 44.4 46.6 44.4 44.4 45.7 45.4 44.4 44.0 45.5 43.8 44.2 44.5 46.3 45 Summers 40 35 30 25 20 Celsius 0 15 8.2 8.0 8.4 7.9 8.4 6.9 6.6 6.0 6.2 6.6 10 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.4 5 Winters 0 1971 1981 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year Source: Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: City Climate Rainfall No. of Rainy Day s Average Annual Rainfall (mm) 13 2 5 . 5 80 12 9 3 . 5 1400 70 1200 10 4 1. 6 988.8 60 955.7 1000 Rainfall (mm) 831.3 50 78 7.8 72 7.9 683.5 680.9 800 40 575.2 597 54 4.7 54 1.1 71 600 30 54 380 397.8 48 44 400 39 41 20 36 38 Number of rainy days 34 34 35 21 20 22 20 200 10 17 0 0 1961 1971 1981 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad City Impacts from Energy Use and Climate Change Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: Health Impacts of Air Pollution Industrial Commercial Residential Morbidity Area (% Area (% Area (% affected) affected) affected) Chronic Cough 3.7 1.6 2 Breathlessness while 5.5 4.6 3.3 walking Nausea 3.7 0.8 2.3 T.B. 0.6 0.4 0.5 Asthma 2.4 0.7 1.8 Hemoptysis 0.6 0.5 0.2 Wheezing 5.8 1 1.4 Eye Irritation 24.3 3.5 6.7 Cataract 3.5 5.9 2.1 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Ahmedabad: Urban Heat Island • Average temperature difference between urban Ahmedabad and countryside is more than 90C • Only 5% tree cover against 20% required • Industrial areas show a temperature increase of 4-8 0C Source : A. John Arnfield ; Stylized results from 2 decades of urban climate research Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Mitigation and Adaptation Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Mitigation and Adaptation Options Planned interventions in Ahmedabad: 2007 • Air Pollution Control Action Plan • Use of CNG in public and semi-public modes of transport • Energy efficient buildings • Strengthening of public transport systems: BRTS • Sabarmati River Front Development Project • Kankaria Lake Front Development Project • Encouraging Urban Plantation Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Air Pollution (& Climate) Action Plan Highlights • Action Plan under implementation for 18 months • 26 CNG stations made operational • 500 CNG buses on road • 8,000 CNG auto rickshaws on road • 112 New Vehicle Pollution Certification centers • Bharat (EURO) III norms for new vehicles • Industries with major boilers: 150 wet scrubbers installed • 190 industrial units switched over to NG as fuel • Restriction on movement of 6-seater diesel rickshaws, heavy vehicles • Projects of Ring Road, flyovers, bridges, carpeting of roads Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Energy Conservation Options for Cities Industrial Sector: Scope for energy savings in streelights • Energy audits and housekeeping Example: Ahmedabad city • Technology upgradation Type of connections Number • Ordinary 278 Residential & Commercial: • Tubelights (40W) 25,734 • CFLs to replace incandescent lamps • CFLs (11W) 13,848 • Efficiency improvements in cooling devices • Mercury 2,657 • Sodium 37,036 • LPG replaces coal and wood • Fluid 296 Transport: ¾ Energy savings to the extent of 20-30% may be achieved by • CNG in auto rickshaws replacing tubelights and ordinary • Vehicle fuel consumption improvement lamps with CFLs Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Energy Efficient Buildings Torrent Research Center, Ahmedabad • 12°-13°C drop compared to temperature outside the building • Inside temperature variation generally below 4°C as compared 14°C to 17°C outside • About 200 Ton air-conditioning plant capacity is saved • Construction cost 12% more than that of a conventional building • Annual savings in electricity consumption @ Rs. 6 million. • The pay-back period of additional capital cost @ 2 years. Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Enhanced Public Transport Systems: BRTS BRTS Exclusive Corridor 235km Feeder Network 145km Total BRT Network 380km ¾ Decrease in the growth of personal vehicles ¾ Shift from diesel or petrol to CNG Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Sabarmati River Front Development Courtesy: Dr. Bimal Patel Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Kankaria Lake Front Development Courtesy: HCP Design & Project Management Pvt. Ltd., Ahmedabad Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Encouraging Urban Plantation Sabarmati River Front Kankaria Lake Front Development 2000 2000 6500 7000 6500 2000 2000 CYCLE PEDESTRIAN 1000 BUS LANE 1000 CARRIAGE WAY 30000 TRACK PATHWAY BRT Road Section Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Mega City Challenges: Sustainable Development and Climate Change Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India India: Energy and Carbon Emissions Future Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population From 2005-2050: Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005 Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Economy 23 times Annual Population Growth: 0.9% Population 1.56 times 3,500 8,000 Other Renewables Energy Carbon Emissions Nuclear 7,000 3,000 Hydro Gas 6,000 2,500 Oil Coal 5,000 Commercial Biomass 2,000 Non Com Biomass 4,000 Mtoe 1,500 3,000 1,000 Million CO2 Ton 2,000 500 1,000 0 0 2005 20102015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Projected Growth of Greater Ahmedabad 6.5 Million People, 500 sq.km 10 Million People, 800-900 sq.km Kalol Kalol Gandhinagar Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Ahmedabad Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Horizontal vs.