Great Council of Report to Great Lakes the International Research Managers Joint Corr~rnission Great Lakes Modeling Summit: Focus on Lake Erie Modeling Summit Planning Committee Council of Great Lakes Research Managers March 2000 ISBN 1-894280-17-2 Printed in Canada on Recycled Paper Cover Photos: National Parks Service (background), P. Bertram (left), Romy Myszka (right) Modeling Summit Planning Committee Jan J.H. Ciborowski, Joseph V. DePinto, David M. Dolan, Joseph F. Koonce, and W. Gary Sprules On behalf of the Council of Great Lakes Research Managers we would like to thank the authors for contributing white papers for the summit and the following Panel members: Bob Lange, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Tim Johnson and Tom Stewart, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources; Glenn Warren, Environmental Protection Agency, Great Lakes National Program Office; and Todd Howell, Ontario Ministry of Environment. We would also like to thank Carl Walters, Institute of Animal Resource Ecology, University of British Columbia for his plenary presentation, Modeling, Management, and Adaptive Policy Destgn: A History of Good Intentions Gone Astray. Editors: Lisa A. Tulen and Joseph V. DePinto Graphic Design: Bruce Jarnieson A suggested citation for this document: Council of Great Lakes Research Managers. 2000. Great Lakes Modeling Summit: Focus on Lake Erie. Tulen, Lisa A. and Joseph V. DePinto, [Eds.]. InternationalJoint Commission, Windsor, Ontario. TABLE OF CONTENTS I Background I1 Introduction I11 Discussions and Results IV Conclusions and Recommendations Appendix A Program 4 Appendix B Integrated Ecosystem Response Medels for Lake Erie by Russell G. Kreir Jr. Abstract Introduction Ecosystem Response Model for Lake Erie Enhancements for Integrated Ecosystem Response Models for Lake Erie Ecosystem Productivity Model Integration of Productivity and Bioaccumulation Models Food Chain Contaminant Bioaccumulation Model Population Effects Models Conclusions and Recommendations Appendix C A History of Eutrophication Modeling in Lake Erie byJamesJ Fieabick and Dominic M. DiToro Introduction Model Evolution Initial Efforts Loading to LAKE 1 LAKE 1A Post Audits Application to Climate Warming Current State-of-thescience Revelance of Eutrophication Models to Lake Erie Water Quality Problems Appendix D Ikophic Ikansfer in Lake Erie: a Whole Food Web Modeling Perspective by K G. ~les,0. E-Johnwon, E. S. Millard M Munawar, D. S. S6mart,J Tyler, R Dmno66, S.J. Wlrippk, M. Legncr, ZJ Momk, D. Ghr, andJ. M.Je& Introduction Objectives Targeted State Variables Nutrient Concentrations Total Algal Biomass, Zebra Mussel Biomass Blue-green Algal Biomass, Walleye Biomass Fish Body Burdens of Bioaccumulative Chemicals Richness and Evenness of Intermediate Fish Trophic Levels State Variables in Relation to Stressors Addressing Lake Erie Millennium Management Issues Management Problem Being Addressed Modeling Assumptions Relevant Space and Time Scales Data/Monitoring/Research Needs Overall Model Utility continued Appendix E Modeling the Effects of Nutrient Concentrations on Ecosystem Stability: Framework for a Great Lakes Model by Robert I: Heath, WL?eSturtevan&, Daniel Shoup, and Per En@ Abstract Introduction Model Considerations Microbial Food Web and Lake Erie Communities A Model of the Base of the Food Web Model Analysis Microbial Food Webs, Offshore Communities, and Lake Erie Models Implications for Lake Erie Management Acknowledgements Appendix F Conceptualization of an Aquatic Ecosystem Model for Integrated Management of Lake Erie by Joseph I? DePinto, VztorJ. Bimn,Jr., TimolhyJ. Feist, and Jagiit Kaur Introduction and F'roblem Statement Historic Perspective - Need for a Lake Erie Aquatic Ecosystem Management Model Management Questions for Lake Erie Conceptualization of Lake Erie Aquatic Ecosystem Management Model F'rogress Toward an Operational Aquatic Ecosystem Model for the Great Lakes Research and Data Needs Appendix G The Lake Erie System Model by Hans Biberhofer, Maria Colauecciria, Sandra George, Roger KnQht, Stuart Ludn'n, and Phil Ryan Introduction Assumptions Fuzzy Cognitive Map Relevance to Great Lakes Appendix H Ecological Modeling of Lake Erie Trophic Dynamics - 1999 by David A. Culver Introduction The Model Model Conshuction Contaminants Stressors Needs Lake Erie Management Appendix I Resolution of Issues of Scope and Detail in the Development of the Lake Erie Ecological Model by Joseph E Koonce and Ana B. Locci Introduction LEEM Description Modeling Framework Assumptions Model Structure LEEM Application Testing, Calibration and Validation Predictive Capability Discussion References FIGURES AND TABLES Appendix B Figure 1 Lake Michigan Modeling Framework Figure 2 Enhanced Ecosystem Response Modeling Framework Appendix C Figure la Steady State Transport for Seven Compartment Western Lake Erie Model Figure lb Kinetic Pathways of the Endogenous Variables Figure 2a Chlorophyll Verification Comparison of Model Results and Observed Data Figure 2b Inorganic Phosphorus Verification Comparison of Model Results and Observed Data Figure 3a Ammonia Nitrogen Verification Comparison of Model Results and Observed Data Figure 3b Nitrate Nitrogen Verification Comparison of Mode1 Results and Observed Data Figure 4a Relationship Between Total Algal Cell Counts and Total Chlorophyll Measurements in Western Lake Erie Figure 4b Chlorophyll Hindcast to 1930 Comparison of Model Results and Observed Data Figure 5 Lake Erie Model Segmentation of Western, Central, and Eastern Basins Figure 6 Lake Erie Variable Interactions Figure 7a Lake Erie Calibration Results, 1970 - Chlorophyll a, Carbon, Total Phosphorus Figure 7b Lake Erie Calibration Results, 1970 - Orthophosphorus, Nitrogen, Reactive Silica Figure 8a Correlations Between Surface Water Quality Variables Figure 8b Temperature and Oxygen Concentration for Central Lake erie for 1967 through 1972 Figure 9a Verification Scores, Difference of Means Test, Pooled Six-state Variables, 1967-1976 Figure 9b Relative error Scores, Six-state Variables and Across All Variables Figure 10 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Cruise Mean Total Phosphorus Data Figure 11 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Cruise Mean Soluble Reactive Phosphorus Figure 12 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Cruise Mean Chlorophyll a - Western, Central, and Eastern Basins of Lake Erie Figure 13 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Yearly Dissolved Oxygen Statistics - Western, Central, and Eastern Basins of Lake Erie Figure 14 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Yearly Total Percept Area Anoxia Statistics - Central Basin of Lake Erie Figure 15 Comparison of Model Predicted and 1970 to 1980 Observed Yearly Mean Nitrate Plus Nitrate Nitrogen Statistics - Western, Central, and Eastern Basins of Lake Erie Appendix D Figure 1 The Food Web of the Western Basin of Lake Erie as Represented in the Trophic Transfer Model Appendix E Table I Lake Erie Management Issues, Ecosystem State Variables of Interest, Modeling Needs 38 Table 2 Average Storage Size and Process Rates in Nearshore and Offshore Stations 4 1-42 Figure la Steady State Model Derived from Data in July 1994 - nearshore station example 43 Figure lb Steady State Model Derived from Data in July 1994 - offshore station example 44 Figure 2 Total System Through Flow (TST) of Steady State Models of the Coastal Stations USB and LSB and the Offshore Stations SLE and CLE 45 continued continued Figure 3a Fate of Algal and Bacterial C Flux 46 Figure 3b Fate of Algal and Bacterial P Flux 46 Figure 4 Cycling Indices (CI) of Steady State Models of the Coastal Stations USB and ISB and the Offshore Stations SLE and CLE 47 Figure 5 Comparison of Steady State Stability Indices, Margin of Stability and Index of Response Time for Carbon Models and Phosphorus Models 47 Figure 6 Microbial Food Web Homomorphic Subregion of the Plankton Ecosystem Determined by Correlation Analysis of the Steady State Models (NS and OS Models Together) 48 Figure 7 Correlation of System Resilience (Inverse Response Time) to Systems Perturbed by DOP Pulses vs. Bacterial P Retention 48 Appendix F Figure 1 Historical Trends of Total Phosphorus Load and Phytoplankton Density in the Western Basin of Lake Erie 54 Figure 2 PCB Concentrations in Lake Erie Walleye 55 Figure 3 Lake Erie Aquatic Ecosystem Management Model Relates Multiple Response Endpoints to Multiple Stressors Acting in Concert 58 Figure 4 Integrated Module Configuration for Lake Erie Aquatic Ecosystem Management Model 58 Figure 5 Conceptual Model of Carbon Flow in the Proposed Lake Erie Aquatic Ecosystem Management Model 60 Appendix G Figure 1 A Practical Application of the Hutchinson-Fry Niche Concept 64 Appendix H Figure 1 An Ecological Model of the Great Lakes Emphasizing the Lower Trophic Levels 67 Table 1 Taxinomic Composition of Biota Included in the Model as State Variables 68 Figure 2 Process for Constructing a Spatially Explicit Lower Trophic Level Dynamics Model 69 Appendix I Figure 1 Schematic Diagram of the Lake Erie Ecological Model 72 Table 1 Summary of LEEM State Variables for the Whole-lake Version 73 Figure 2 LEEM Simulation of Walleye Recovery for Varying Levels of Exploitation 75 I. BACKGROUND II. INTRODUCTION The Lake Erie Task Force completed its report in The Council of Great Lakes Research Managers February of 1997 providing a conceptual model of the (Council) was established in 1984 to enhance the Lake Erie Ecosystem that is now being