Climate Change Adaptation and Flood Management Strategy June 2013 Aussi disponible en français Forward In April 2010, the Cities of Moncton and Dieppe, and the Town of Riverview were selected to participate in the Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) program, which is a cost-shared federal program developed to identify and reduce risks posed by climate change. Under this program, each region of Canada is developing solutions for region-specific issues related to climate change. The results of this study, which was completed by AMEC, were presented to Moncton City Council in the fall of 2012. In response, Moncton City Council resolved to undertake a climate change adaptation plan and flood management strategy by June 2013. While efforts to reduce global warming remain important, there is no doubt that our climate is changing. While the City remains committed to reducing its carbon footprint, there is now both the opportunity and the need to anticipate and adapt to our changing climate as well. This document was prepared by the City’s corporate Climate Change Action Committee (CCAC). The CCAC is committed to working with Moncton City Council, the community at large, and our partners at the regional, provincial and federal levels to better understand the implications of climate change and to take action on adaptation strategies, so that the Moncton community and region will continue on a path of resiliency and prosperity. Jacques Dubé, City Manager Chair, Corporate Climate Change Action Committee June, 2013 i City of Moncton Corporate Climate Change Action Committee (2013): Project Management Group: Jacques Dubé, City Manager (Chair) Jack MacDonald, General Manager, Engineering and Environmental Services Catherine Dallaire, General Manager, Corporate Services Don MacLellan, General Manager, Community Safety Services John Martin, CFO, General Manager, Finance and Administrative Services Stephen Trueman, General Manager, Legal and Legislative Services Maurice Belliveau, General Manager, Economic Development and Events Rod Higgins, General Manager, Parks & Leisure Services Laurann Hanson, General Manager, Human Resources Technical Advisory Group: Sébastien Arcand, Senior Planner, Urban Planning Eric Arsenault, Moncton Fire Department Chief Elaine Aucoin, Director, Environmental Planning and Management, Engineering and Environmental Services Bill Budd, Director, Urban Planning Ginny Cosgrove, Corporate Analyst, Strategic Initiatives Claude Despres, Director, Strategic Initiatives John Gillis, Senior Real Estate Officer Gregg Houser, Deputy Treasurer Controller, Finance and Administrative Services Michelle McAloon, Landscape Project Coordinator, Parks & Leisure Services Don Morehouse, Director, Public Works and Utilities, Engineering and Environmental Services Alcide Richard, Director, Design/Construction, Engineering and Environmental Services Randy Richard, Senior Building Inspector, Building Inspections Kevin Silliker, Director, Economic Development Sherry Sparks, Director, Building Inspections Stephane Thibodeau, Transportation and Parking Coordinator, Engineering and Environmental Services Paul Thomson, Director, Corporate Communications ii City of Moncton Climate Change Adaptation Plan and Flood Management Strategy Forward Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 2 Developing Moncton’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan .......................................... 2 3 Climate Change Trends ....................................................................................................... 4 3.1 Temperature and Precipitation ................................................................................ 4 3.2 Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................... 4 3.3 Extreme Weather Events ............................................................................................ 7 4 Flood Risk Assessment ......................................................................................................... 8 4.1 AMEC Study Findings .................................................................................................. 8 4.2 CCAC Flood Scenario Assessments ........................................................................ 9 4.3 Proposed Strategy for Reducing Flood Risk ......................................................... 21 4.4 Addressing Flood Risk Outside the Scope of the AMEC Study ......................... 25 5 Assessment of Other Climate Trends .............................................................................. 26 5.1 Warmer Average Temperatures & Extreme Heat Days .................................... 26 5.2 Other Extreme Weather Events .............................................................................. 29 6 Conclusions/Recommendations ..................................................................................... 31 0 1 Introduction In April 2010, the Cities of Moncton and Dieppe and the What is Climate Change? Town of Riverview were selected to participate in a Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) program, a The term ‘climate change’ refers cost-shared federal program developed to identify and to “the warming of the earth’s reduce the impacts posed by climate changei. atmosphere and oceans, in addition to an increase in the natural variability of the climate”. Through this partnership, a technical study, prepared by (Municipal Climate Change Action AMEC Earth and Environmental, was produced to help Plan Guidebook, Canada-Nova identify climate change trends and what these trends Scotia Infrastructure Secretariat, mean for our regionii. The AMEC report recognized that in 2011) eastern Canada, a main hazard associated with climate Climate change trends indicate change is the increased risk of higher intensity and more that in the future, we are more frequent storm events, and increased risk of flooding. likely to experience: o warmer temperatures In October, 2012, the results of the RAC project were o increasing amounts of presented to Moncton City Council. Recognizing its precipitation importance, City Council requested that staff develop an o greater UV exposure; action plan and flood management strategy by June o sea level rise (higher tides); o stronger winds, storm surges 2013, based on the recommendations of the AMEC study. o more frequent storm events; and Since the RAC program was first initiated, communities o more frequent ‘extreme across Canada have become increasingly engaged in weather events' such as heat how climate change will impact their community and waves, droughts, and heavy what steps can be taken to adapt to our changing precipitation in the form of climate. The importance of adaptation action has been rain, snow or ice storms, echoed by the federal government, which has indicated coupled with strong winds. that Climate Change Action Plans (CCAPs), which include climate change adaptation strategies, will be required in What is Climate Change most provinces to access Gas Tax fundingiii . Adaptation? As a result of increased attention to climate change at all Climate change adaptation is levels, there is a growing amount of information and about taking actions that will resources available to assist communities in addressing this help to reduce the impacts important issue. With climate change adaptation associated with anticipated climate change trends, events strategies, communities have the opportunity to reduce and hazards. It is also about risks and strengthen community resiliency and adaptation taking advantage of new capacity. opportunities that may be created as a result of climate change. 1 2 Developing Moncton’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan This Plan was developed in order to: 1. Better understand the potential risks related to climate change, particularly with respect to more frequent and intense (or extreme) weather events, in conjunction with higher tides in the future; 2. Consider the potential impacts of climate change on City of Moncton operations, including essential services, infrastructure, facilities and assets; 3. Begin understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the community at large, from a social, cultural, economic and environmental perspective; 4. Identify the types of climate change adaptation strategies and actions that will help to manage and reduce risks associated with climate change; and 5. Identify ways in which to increase the adaptive capacity of the Corporation and the community at large. While this work focused primarily on the potential impacts and vulnerability with respect to flooding risk, the team also considered other potential climate change hazards including heat wave/drought, forest fire, cold wave, ice storm and severe winter storm conditions. A Risk Management Approach Managing the risks of climate change involves understanding how our climate is anticipated to change over time, as well as the probability that a serious climate related event is likely to occur. The team relied upon two key sources of data: The Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Greater Moncton Area, New Brunswick report, prepared by AMEC Earth and Environmental (2011). A key strength of this report is well-researched and documented forecast for a 1:100 year storm in the tri-community area, factoring in climate change trends for rainfall and tide levels. New Brunswick Climate Futures data provided by the Atlantic Climate