ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Policy Forum would like to thank Tanzania Development Research Group for drafting the Tanzania Governance Review 2015/16. The cartoons were drawn by Adam Lutta (Adamu). Tanzania Governance Reviews for 2006-7, 2008-9, 2010-11, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015/16 can be downloaded from the Policy Forum website. The views expressed and conclusions drawn on the basis of data and analysis presented in this UHYLHZGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHÀHFWWKRVHRI3ROLF\)RUXP7*5VUHYLHZSXEOLVKHGDQGXQSXEOLVKHG PDWHULDOVIURPRI¿FLDOVRXUFHVFLYLOVRFLHW\DQGDFDGHPLDDQGIURPWKHPHGLD3ROLF\)RUXPKDV made every effort to verify the accuracy of the information contained in TGR2015/16, particularly with media sources. However, Policy Forum cannot guarantee the accuracy of all reported claims, statements, and statistics. Whereas any part of this review can be reproduced provided it is duly sourced, Policy Forum cannot accept responsibility for the consequences of its use for other purpos- es or in other contexts. 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Box 38486 Dar es Salaam Tel +255 22 2780200 Website: www.policyforum.or.tz Email: [email protected] ISBN: 978-9987-708-26-0 3ROLF\)RUXP௑ i TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction and overview ................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview 2015 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 The Constitutional Review ............................................................................................ 1 1.3 The unresolved Escrow affair ....................................................................................... 1 1.4 The parliamentary and presidential elections ................................................................ 2 Table 1.1: Presidential election results, October 2015 .................................................. 3 1.5 Governance trends ........................................................................................................ 4 1.5.1 Voice and accountability ...................................................................................... 5 1.5.2 Rule of law ........................................................................................................... 5 Figure 1.1: Supernatural beliefs, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, percent...................... 7 Box 1.1: A rising tide of street violence, and terrorism?................................................. 8 1.5.3 Corruption control ................................................................................................. 8 1.6 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 10 Appendix 1.1: Promises of CCM presidential aspirants ................................................ 12 Chapter 2: Public money and national governance ............................................................. 13 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Taxation and aid ............................................................................................................ 13 2.2.1 Tax exemptions .................................................................................................. 14 2.2.2 Revenue leakages.............................................................................................. 15 2.2.3 Budget support .................................................................................................. 15 Figure 2.1: Public expenditure and budget support trends (percent of GDP) ............... 15 2.3 Public expenditure ......................................................................................................... 16 2.3.1 National debt ...................................................................................................... 17 2.3.2 Government guarantees and pension funds....................................................... 18 2.3.3 Public investment, procurement and contracting................................................ 19 2.3.3.1 Public Private Partnerships................................................................................ 20 2.3.3.2 The National Development Corporation............................................................. 20 2.3.3.3 TANESCO........................................................................................................... 21 2.4 Transparency and accountability.................................................................................... 21 2.4.1 Parliament and corruption control...................................................................... 23 Figure 2.1: Public perceptions of corruption: ‘most’ or ‘all’ are corrupt (percent)........... 24 2.4.2 The judiciary ...................................................................................................... 24 2.4.3 Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau and Ethics Tribunal............... 25 Table 2.1: PCCB performance 2009-2015..................................................................... 26 ii Table 2.2(VFURZUHODWHGFKDUJHV¿OHVE\3&&%DQG(WKLFV7ULEXQDO hearings 27 2.4.4 The Controller and Auditor General.................................................................... 29 Figure 2.1: Audit performance of ministries and agencies, 2012/13-2014/15................ 30 Table 2.3: MDA weaknesses in expenditure management, FY 2014/15 (TShs)............. 30 2.5 Big Results Now!............................................................................................................ 30 2.6 Conclusion..................................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 3: Public money and local governance.................................................................... 32 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Trends in service delivery performance.......................................................................... 32 3.2.1 Education ........................................................................................................... 32 Table 3.1: Number of schools and TTCs and enrolments, 2007-15, Tanzania mainland 33 Table 3.2: Standard 3 test performance 2013/14 (percent) ........................................... 34 3.2.2 Healthcare ......................................................................................................... 35 Chart 3.1: Infant and child mortality rates in Tanzania, 2000-15 ..................................... 35 Table 3.3: Infant and child mortality rates 2005-15, deaths per 1,000 live births........... 36 Box 3.1: The limits of the possible in lobbying for maternal and child health................. 37 3.2.3 Water and sanitation........................................................................................... 38 3.2.4 Urban roads ....................................................................................................... 39 3.3 Controller and Auditor General ................................................................................ 39 Table 3.4: LGA procurement irregularities, 2014-15....................................................... 40 3.4 Parliamentary oversight.................................................................................................. 41 3.5 Conclusion...................................................................................................................... 41 Chapter 4: Policy, regulation and economic governance..................................................... 42 4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 42 4.2 Private sector policy and regulation................................................................................ 42 Figure 4.1: Tanzania’s industrial establishments and employment size, 2013............... 43 4.2.1 Extractive industries.............................................................................................. 43 Table 4.1: Mining investment attractiveness index, 2011-2015, scores and percentile.. 44 Figure 4.2: Expectations of trends in corruption, percent............................................... 45 4.2.1.3 Cement............................................................................................................... 47 4.2.1.4 Tanzania Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative....................................... 48 Table 4.2: TEITI payments to government and all company payments, in US$, 2008-2014 48 Table 4.3: Extractive industries sales 2014, TShs billion and US$s............................... 49 Box 4.1: Evidence of tax evasion................................................................................... 50 4.2.2 Tourism.................................................................................................................. 51 Table 4.4: Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index, Tanzania 2015 ............................ 51 4.2.2.1 3RDFKLQJDQGG\QDPLWH¿VKLQJ 54 iii 4.3 Land and agriculture ...................................................................................................... 55 4.3.1 Horticulture ......................................................................................................... 59 Figure 4.3: TAHA Associate members