Draft Report: Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Authors: Katherine A. Mitchell, California Biomass Collaborative, UC Davis, Nathan C. Parker, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis, Benktesh Sharma, Center for Forestry, UC Berkeley, Stephen Kaffka, Director, California Biomass Collaborative, UC Davis January 2015 Table of Contents Forest Biomass ....................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass ........................................................... 1 Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................... 1 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 4 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... 5 List of Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 6 Motivation ............................................................................................................................................... 9 Potential of Forest Residue for Biofuel Production ....................................................................... 9 Forest residue: what is forest residue and the need for a California resource assessment 10 Forest residue: wildfire risk reduction policy effects on forest residue resource assessment ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Benefits of Using Forest Residue for Biofuels .............................................................................. 12 Wildfire in California ................................................................................................................... 12 Management for healthy forests reduces wildfire occurrence and severity. ....................... 13 Objectives .............................................................................................................................................. 16 Approach ............................................................................................................................................... 16 A Combined‐Models Forest Feedstock and Biorefinery Siting Approach .............................. 16 Description of the BioSum model .............................................................................................. 17 1 Description of GBSM ................................................................................................................... 17 Forest Products Industry Residue Market and Biofuels ............................................................. 18 Mill residues ................................................................................................................................. 18 Future availability of mill residues for biofuel production .................................................... 19 Activities and Methods ....................................................................................................................... 20 BioSum Methods .............................................................................................................................. 20 Study area, FIA plots and exclusions ........................................................................................ 20 BioSum model process flow ....................................................................................................... 21 Forest management Prescriptions Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 ................................................ 23 GBSM Methods................................................................................................................................. 26 GBSM process flow ...................................................................................................................... 27 Characterization of conversion technologies ........................................................................... 28 Results .................................................................................................................................................... 29 BioSUM Results Scenario 1: Availability of Forest Residue ....................................................... 29 GBSM Results Scenario 1: Supply, Fuel Pricing, Optimal Biorefinery Locations ................... 30 Spatial distribution of residue supply ....................................................................................... 30 Economic biofuel potential from forest residues ..................................................................... 32 Spatial results of biorefinery siting and pricing ...................................................................... 34 Value added by biofuels for forest management .................................................................... 35 Scenario 2 Results: Wildfire Risk Reduction ................................................................................ 38 Regional Differences in Biomass Amounts .............................................................................. 39 Regional and Land Owner Differences in Supply‐Cost Curves ............................................ 39 Economic biofuel potential from forest residues ..................................................................... 41 Spatial results of biorefinery siting and pricing ...................................................................... 41 Advancement in Science and Measurement of Success ................................................................. 42 Insights, Observations and Conclusions ........................................................................................... 42 Environmental Impacts, Sustainability and Biofuels .................................................................. 42 Sustainability ................................................................................................................................ 43 Forest Carbon Storage and California Policy ............................................................................... 44 Carbon storage in California forests .......................................................................................... 44 Forest carbon policy in California.............................................................................................. 46 Where Will Future Forest Residues Come From? ....................................................................... 47 2 Private land vs public land ......................................................................................................... 47 CALFIRE woody biomass resource assessment ...................................................................... 48 Can biofuels help pay for forest restoration? ............................................................................... 49 Growing crisis of wildfire costs for California forests ............................................................ 49 Monetizing societal benefits helps pay for forest restoration ................................................ 50 Forest‐based Biofuels and Rural Economic Development ......................................................... 51 Overview of Key Findings .............................................................................................................. 52 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX A: California Policy to De‐Carbonize Transportation Fuels .................................... 64 APPENDIX B. BioSum Forest Management Prescriptions Scenario 2 (Packages). ................... 67 APPENDIX C. BioSum ResultsTables for Scenario 1 ...................................................................... 70 APPENDIX D. Community‐scale Forest Bioenergy Projects under Development .................... 71 3 List of Figures Figure 1. Forest Residue (Woody Biomass). ....................................................................................... 11 Figure 2. Overly Dense vs Healthy Thinned Conifer Forest Stand. ................................................. 14 Figure 3. Catastrophic Wildfires Burn Hotter than the Historic Fire Regime................................... 15 Figure 4. FIA Plot Locations. .................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 5. BioSum Model Process Flow Diagram ................................................................................ 23 Figure 6. GBSM Process Flow Diagram. .............................................................................................. 26 Figure 7. GBSM Road Network. ........................................................................................................... 28 Figure 8. Maps of Forest Residue Amounts and Distribution. ........................................................... 31 Figure 9. Variation in Forest Residue Cost and Supply ....................................................................