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Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation corporate publication series. Corporate publications describe or promote RAND divisions and programs, summarize research results, or announce upcoming events. Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner David Ochmanek, Michael Sulmeyer EDITORS Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner David Ochmanek, Michael Sulmeyer EDITORS James M. Acton, Michael Albertson, Alexei G. Arbatov, Elbridge A. Colby, Michèle A. Flournoy, Rose E. Gottemoeller, Andrew R. Hoehn, Christopher J. Lamb, James N. Miller, David Ochmanek, Eugene Rumer, James A. Schear, Walter B. Slocombe, Michael Sulmeyer, Dean A. Wilkening CONTRIBUTORS Funding for this book was made possible by RAND’s Investment in People and Ideas program, which combines philanthropic contributions from individuals, foundations, and private-sector firms with earnings from RAND’s endowment and operations to support innovative research on issues crucial to the policy debate but that reach beyond the boundaries of traditional client sponsorship. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8456-9 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. 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RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS BOSTON, MA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Contents Figures and Tables .................................................................................... v Acknowledgments .................................................................................. vii Foreword Walter B. Slocombe ................................................................................1 CHaptER ONE The Life and Work of Ted Warner David Ochmanek and Michael Sulmeyer ........................................................7 CHaptER Two Early Contributions to the Study of the Soviet Armed Forces and Bureaucratic Politics Michael Sulmeyer and Michael Albertson ...................................................... 15 CHaptER THREE Assessing Military Capabilities Using an “End-to-End” Conceptual Framework David Ochmanek ................................................................................ 29 CHaptER FOUR Defense Planning After the Cold War Andrew R. Hoehn ................................................................................ 41 CHaptER FIVE Pentagon Strategies Christopher J. Lamb ............................................................................. 59 CHaptER SIX Orchestrating Complex Contingency Operations: A Forever Bumpy Ride James A. Schear .................................................................................. 81 iii iv Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy: A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner CHaptER SEVEN Dealing with Russia After the Cold War and After Eugene Rumer .................................................................................... 95 CHaptER EIGHT On Not Throwing the Nuclear Strategy Baby Out with the Cold War Bath Water: The Enduring Relevance of the Cold War James M. Acton .................................................................................. 107 CHaptER NINE Strategic Stability Between the United States and Russia Dean A. Wilkening .............................................................................123 CHaptER TEN The Need for Limited Nuclear Options Elbridge A. Colby ............................................................................... 141 CHaptER ElEVEN The Development and Ratification of New START Rose E. Gottemoeller ............................................................................ 169 CHaptER TWELVE Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament: Are We Ready to Open the Box of Pandora? Alexei G. Arbatov ............................................................................... 175 Afterword Michèle A. Flournoy and James N. Miller .................................................... 187 Edward L. Warner III: Publications ........................................................... 193 About the Authors ................................................................................. 195 Abbreviations .......................................................................................201 Figures and Tables Figures 3.1. Critical Functions for the Employment of Air Power in Theater War ............ 35 9.1. Russian Counterforce First Strike on U.S. Strategic Forces ......................130 9.2. Russian Counterforce First-Strike Scenarios Against Varying U.S. Strategic Force Postures ............................................................... 132 9.3. U.S. Counterforce First Strike Against Varying Russian Strategic Force Postures ................................................................................. 133 9.4. Russian Counterforce First-Strike Scenarios Against Varying U.S. Strategic Offensive Force Postures with a Limited U.S. Homeland Missile Defense ..................................................................................136 9.5. U.S. Counterforce First-Strike Scenarios Against Varying Russian Strategic Postures and Response Options with a Limited U.S. Homeland Missile Defense ...........................................................137 12.1. Russia, the United States, and the Other Nuclear-Weapon States ............... 177 12.2. Global Stockpiles of Nuclear Weapons .............................................. 181 12.3. Nuclear-Weapon Stockpiles as Counted Under the 2010 New START ........ 182 Tables 9.1. Illustrative New START Forces ......................................................127 9.2. Illustrative Planning Factors ..........................................................128 v Acknowledgments Editing this volume has been an enriching experience, presenting an unexpected opportunity to collaborate with both long-time friends and new colleagues. It is a tes- timony to Ted Warner’s lasting influence and his relationship with former colleagues that every author we contacted about the project was quick not only to accept our invi- tation to join the effort but also to respond to deadlines. We thank them for following through on their commitments to this book and for their patience with us through several rounds of edits. We also thank Ted himself for his involvement in the project. He worked actively with each author to help shape their contributions, in some cases applying the rather dense editing familiar to his former subordinates. In every case, however, he struck the perfect balance between support for the work and deference to the contributors, always cognizant that he was the honoree. A brief note on sources: This festschrift contains the candid memories of many close friends and colleagues of Ted Warner. While the authors frequently cite publicly available sources and undertook additional research to resolve questions about the his- torical record, they have written largely from personal recollection and without refer- ence to archival materials. We also engaged in additional fact-checking and verification when needed. Several individuals deserve special mention for their contribution to turning this book into reality.