IS DAYTON FAILING?: Bosnia Four Years After The Peace Agreement RESTRICTED CIRCULATION ICG Balkans Report N°80 Sarajevo, 28 October 1999 Table Of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i I. INTRODUCTION: DAYTON'S GOALS 1 A. Purpose .............................................................................................................................. 1 B. Annex By Annex................................................................................................................ 2 II. ANNEX 1-A: CEASE FIRE AND MUJAHEDEEN 3 A. Cessation Of Hostilities .................................................................................................... 4 B. Armed Civilian Groups: Militia And Paramilitary ........................................................... 4 C. Foreign Troops: The Osama Bin Laden Connection..................................................... 4 D. Who Pays The Rent?......................................................................................................... 5 E. War Criminals .................................................................................................................... 5 F. The Fear Of Body Bags: Why Dayton Isn't Working...................................................... 6 III. ANNEX 1-B: REGIONAL STABILIZATION 7 A. Purpose .............................................................................................................................. 7 B. Confidence And Security Building Measures ................................................................ 7 C. Implementation.................................................................................................................. 8 D. The Standing Committee On Military Matters ................................................................ 8 E. The Federation Armies: HVO And Abih .......................................................................... 8 F. Funding An Arms Race? .................................................................................................. 9 G. Sub-Regional Arms Control ........................................................................................... 10 H. Agreement On Regional Arms Control ......................................................................... 10 IV. ANNEX 2: BOUNDARIES AND BRCKO 11 A. Boundaries....................................................................................................................... 11 B. Brcko: A United District?................................................................................................ 11 V. ANNEX 3: ELECTIONS 11 A. The Failure Of "Democratic" Elections ......................................................................... 11 B. The Fraudulent 1996 Elections: Déjà Vu From 1990.................................................... 12 C. The 1997 Elections: Gerrymandering Dayton To Death.............................................. 13 D. OSCE Intervention........................................................................................................... 15 E. The 1998 Election: Poplasen Wins ................................................................................ 15 F. The Potemkin Village Of Multi-Ethnic Administration................................................. 16 G. Boycotts And Threats Of Violence ................................................................................ 17 H. The PEC And The Draft Permanent Election Law........................................................ 17 I. Whither Elections?……............................................................................................ ……18 VI. ANNEX 4: THE CONSTITUTION 18 A. The House Of Cards........................................................................................................ 19 B. Why Is It Not Implemented? ........................................................................................... 19 C. Three Peoples, Two Entities, One Republic ................................................................. 20 D. Constituent Peoples: Us Vs. Them Vs. Them............................................................. 21 E. Denial Of Individual Human Rights ............................................................................... 21 F. Dayton's Glue: The Weakness Of The Joint Institutions ............................................ 22 G. The Parliamentary Assembly ......................................................................................... 22 H. The House Of ["Constituent"] Peoples: Institutionalised Discrimination ................. 22 I. Legislative Ineffectiveness............................................................................................. 23 J. The Presidency................................................................................................................ 24 K. Co-Presiding: The Council Of Ministers ....................................................................... 25 L. The Constitutional Court Of Bih .................................................................................... 26 M. The Failure Of Central Institutions ................................................................................ 26 Is Dayton Failing? ICG Balkans Report N°80, 28 October 1999 Page ii VII. ANNEX 5: ARBITRATION 27 VIII. ANNEX 6: HUMAN RIGHTS 27 A. The Human Rights Chamber.......................................................................................... 28 B. Speed And Case Load.................................................................................................... 28 C. Ombudsperson................................................................................................................ 29 D. Why Is The Commission Ineffective?............................................................................ 30 E. The Confusion Of Bureaucracy ..................................................................................... 30 F. Human Rights Soldiers................................................................................................... 31 G. Human Rights - What They Could Be............................................................................ 31 H. Whither Human Rights.................................................................................................... 32 IX. ANNEX 7: REFUGEE RETURN – THE KEY TO DAYTON 32 A. How Many Have Actually “Returned?” ......................................................................... 32 B. Republika Srpska: The Ethnic Cleansers Win.............................................................. 33 C. Federation: Croat Obstruction, Bosniak Semi-Obstruction ....................................... 33 D. 1999 Returns.................................................................................................................... 34 E. The Escape Clause: Chapter 1....................................................................................... 34 F. The Ill-Fated Commission............................................................................................... 34 G. Results.............................................................................................................................. 35 H. The Property Fund .......................................................................................................... 36 I. Refugee Return And Security Issues ............................................................................ 36 J. Minority Return Minimalism ........................................................................................... 37 K. Refugee Return Opportunities....................................................................................... 37 L. Refugee Return Strategies ............................................................................................. 38 M. The High Representative Acts ....................................................................................... 38 N. The Fear Of What May Develop ..................................................................................... 39 X. ANNEX 8: PRESERVING NATIONAL MONUMENTS 39 A. The List And The Law ..................................................................................................... 39 B. The Need For Protection: Radimlja Necropolis And The "Bogomil" Stecci ............. 40 C. Non-Compliance And Extinction ................................................................................... 40 XI. ANNEX 9: PUBLIC CORPORATIONS 40 A. Commission On Public Corporations ........................................................................... 41 B. Transportation Commission And Railway Corporation .............................................. 41 C. The Electric Company And Other Non-Existent Corporations................................... 41 XII. ANNEX 10: THE OFFICE OF THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE 42 A. What Is It? ........................................................................................................................ 42 B. Authority + No Power = Non-Implementation............................................................... 42 XIII. ANNEX 11: INTERNATIONAL POLICE TASK FORCE (IPTF) 43 A. The Purpose Of Annex 11............................................................................................... 43 B. Republika Srpska: Defiance And Reluctance............................................................... 44 C. The Federation: A House Divided… .............................................................................. 45 D. Un-Federated Federation: Stolac And Croat Separatism...........................................