THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER July 28, 2010 AYOTTE, BINNIE TOP GOP CANDIDATES AGAINST HODES IN NH SENATE RACE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center 603/862-2226 DURHAM, NH – Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie continue to lead the Republican field against Democrat Paul Hodes in the race for the US Senate seat from New Hampshire. However, the electorate remains very fluid and only 15% say they have definitely decided who they will support. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll ,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred four (504) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 19 and July 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 453 likely 2010 general election voters (margin of sampling error +/-4.6%). 2010 U.S. Senate Race The New Hampshire Senate seat continues to be one of the most closely watched in the country and campaign activity has been increasing as the September 14 th primary approaches. Both Republicans and Democrats see this seat as critical and are investing heavily. Second District Congressman Paul Hodes is giving up his seat in Congress to run for the Senate against four Republicans; former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, Manchester attorney and former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, and businessmen Bill Binnie and Jim Bender. But it is summertime, and most voters are more interested in their vacations and baseball than they are in the Senate race. Only 15% say they have definitely decided who they plan to vote for, 19% say they are leaning toward a candidate, and 66% say they have considered some candidates, but are still trying to decide who to support. It is not surprising that Republicans and Independents would be undecided about who they will back, but even 58% of Democrats say are undecided about who they will support. Favorability Ratings of Senate Candidates Paul Hodes remains unpopular in the Granite State. Currently, only 32% of Granite Staters have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 31% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral, and 29% don’t know enough about him to say. Hodes’ net favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is +1%, down from and has been below +10% since June 2009. “Hodes has had low favorability ratings for some time now and this has affected how he runs his campaign,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. “Because it is difficult to improve his own popularity in a short period of time, he is working to lessen the popularity of his Republican opponents, especially Kelly Ayotte.” ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 50% 40% 30% 20% Favorability Ratings – Paul Hodes Statewide 10% 0% Apr. '04 July '04 Sep. '04 Hodes strategy appears to be working as unfavorable more than doubled since April. In the most Jan.recent '05 of Ayotte, 27% have an unfavorable opinion of her,Ap r. '05 net favorability is only +9%, down from +25% in Apri July '05 Ayotte’s decline in favorability rating has largely Oct. '05 among Democrats, down from +2% in April. Her net f +48% to +40%, and she has had seen somewhat sharper Feb '06 Apr. '06 July '06 Sep. '06 50% Feb. '07 Favorable Apr. '07 40% July '07 Sep. '07 30% Granite ratings State for Poll, former 36% Newof New Hampshire Hampshire AttorneyFeb. adults ' 0Generalhav8 7% are neutral, and 30% don’t know enoughUnfavorable aboutAp herr. '08 20% July '08 come froml Democrats.and from +37% Currently, a year ago.Ayotte has a -22% Favorability Ratings – Kelly Ayotte Statewide Sep. '08 10% Feb. '09 avorability rating among Republicans has declined s Apr. '09 decline among Independents, from +30% to +18%. Jun. '09 0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 e a favorableKelly Ayotte opinion have to say. Ayotte’s favorability rating lightly, from Favorable Unfavorable Businessmen Bill Binnie has invested heavily in both print and broadcast media, but this strategy is not yet visible in his favorability ratings. Currently, 23% have a favorable opinion of Binnie, 17% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 7% are neutral, and 53% don’t know enough about him to say. Binnie’s net favorability is +6%, down slightly from +11% in April. Among Republicans, Binnie’s net favorability rating is currently +30%, unchanged from April when it stood at +31%. Favorability Ratings – Bill Binnie 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Hollis businessman Jim Bender has also been advertising on television and his name recognition has climbed in recent months. Currently, 17% of Granite Staters have a favorable opinion of Bender, 11% have an unfavorable opinion, 4% are neutral, and 68% don’t know enough about him to say. Bender’s net favorability rating is +6%, up from 0% in April. Bender’s favorability ratings among Republicans, all important for the September primary, have jumped in recent months. In April, only 7% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Bender while 28% have a favorable opinion of him in the latest Granite State Poll. Favorability Ratings – Jim Bender 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne remains largely unknown across the state -- 16% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of him, 14% have an unfavorable opinion, 6% are neutral, and 65% don’t know enough about him to say. Lamontagne’s net favorability rating is +2%, up from -2% in April. Favorability Ratings – Ovide Lamontagne Statewide 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jun. '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Favorable Unfavorable Senate Trial Heats Ayotte continues to be the strongest Republican in a race with Hodes but her lead has narrowed in the latest Granite State Poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Hodes and Ayotte, 45% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Ayotte, 37% would back Hodes, 1% back some other candidate and 17% are undecided. Hodes has narrowed this gap largely by bringing Democrats back to him. Currently, 72% of Democrats say they would vote for Hodes against Ayotte, up from 65% in April. Ayotte has continues to lead among political independents by 45% to 19%, essentially unchanged since April when she led by 44% to 23%. NH Senate Race – Ayotte (R) vs. Hodes (D) 60% 47% 50% 45% 41% 39% 40% 40% 37% 30% 35% 33% 33% 32% 20% 10% 0% June '09 Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Ayotte Hodes Businessman Bill Binnie has also maintained a slight lead over Hodes since April. Currently, 41% of likely voters say they will vote for Binnie, 38% prefer Hodes, and 21% are undecided. Binnie leads among Independents by 40% to 21%. NH Senate Race – Binnie (R) vs. Hodes (D) 60% 50% 41% 38% 40% 34% 38% 30% 36% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Binnie Hodes Jim Bender, the least known GOP candidate, continues to narrowly trail Hodes. In a Hodes, Bender matchup, 39% of likely voters say they will vote for Hodes, 36% prefer Bender, and 25% are undecided. Bender, like other Republicans, also leads Hodes among Independents, by a narrow 31% to 24% margin. NH Senate Race – Bender (R) vs. Hodes (D) 60% 50% 39% 37% 40% 36% 36% 30% 34% 27% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Bender Hodes Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne fares worst among Republicans against Hodes – 42% of likely voters say they would vote for Hodes, 36% would vote for Lamontagne, 1% prefer some other candidate and 21% are undecided. NH Senate Race – Lamontagne (R) vs. Hodes (D) 60% 50% 42% 37% 38% 40% 36% 37% 30% 36% 28% 29% 20% 10% 0% Oct. '09 Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 Lamontagne Hodes Senator Jeanne Shaheen has remained largely out of most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of New Hampshir neutral or don’t know enough about her to say. Sha Shaheen is viewed very favorably by Democrats (net Republicans (net –52%). 100% 90% Favorability Ratings – Jeanne Shaheen 80% 70% 60% 50% the political limelight and her popularity has impr 40% heen’se adultsnet favorability view her favorably,rating is +17%, 35% viewup from her +8% unfavorab 30% 20% Favorability Ratings+76%), – Jeannefavorably Shaheen by Independents (net +18%), but ve 10% 0% Oct. '01 Feb. '02 Apr. '02 June '02 Feb. '03 In his final months in office, Republican Senator JApr. '03 Hampshire residents have a favorable opinion of Gre don’t know enough about him to say. Gregg’s net fa July '03 Oct. '03 oved slightly. In the favorably by Republicans (net +65%) and by Independ Feb. '04 Apr. '04 July '04 inApril.ly, and 14% are Sep. '04 Feb. '05 Apr. '05 ry unfavorably by 100% July '05 Oct. '05 90% Favorable Feb '06 80% Favorability Ratings – Senator Judd Apr.Gregg '0 6 70% July '06 Sep. '06 60% Feb. '07 50% Apr. '07 udd Gregg is still popular in the Granite State. C 40% UnfavorableJuly '07 30% Sep. '07 Favorability Ratings –gg, Senator 26% have Judd an Gregg unfavorable opinion of him, and 22% Feb. '08 20% vorability rating is +26%, unchanged since April. G Apr.