THE PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EU ON TURKEY'S ACCESSION PROCESS FOR MEMBERSHIP A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY HANDE GÜRDA Ğ IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN EUROPEAN STUDIES DECEMBER 2008 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Sencer Ayata Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Assist. Prof. Dr.GalipYalman Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Ra şit Kaya Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Ra şit Kaya (METU, PADM) Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sevilay Kahraman (METU, IR) Assist. Prof. Dr. Nail Alkan (GU, IR) I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Signature: iii ABSTRACT THE PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EU ON TURKEY'S ACCESSION PROCESS FOR MEMBERSHIP Gürda ğ, Hande M.S. Graduate Programme of European Studies Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ra şit Kaya December 2008, 192 pages The main aim of this thesis is to examine the perspectives of the European public opinion on the issue of Turkish membership to the EU. That way the question whether Turkish accession can be managed in a similar way to that of other enlargements will be better enlightened. This thesis will examine how the general public perspective is shaped or changed in the post Helsinki era. In order to determine the general tendencies of public opinion of EU, on Turkey’s accession; three approaches on the issue, British, French and German perspectives, as sample cases will be studied. In order to fully comprehend the subject , arguments and reasons cited against or for Turkish membership in various political parties/campaigns’ and non-governmental organizations, their reflections in written and visual media and recent opinion polls will be elaborated and compared as well as the official point of view on the matter. Key words: The EU, Turkey, Public Opinion, France, Germany, Britain iv ÖZ AB KAMUOYUNUN TÜRK İYE’N İN AVRUPA B İRL İĞİ NE ÜYEL İK SÜREC İNE YÖNEL İK YAKLA ŞIMLARI Gürda ğ, Hande Yüksek Lisans, Avrupa Çalı şmaları Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Ra şit Kaya Aralık 2008, 192 sayfa Bu tezin temel amacı, AB ülkelerinde kamuoylarının Türkiye'nin üyeli ğine nasıl baktı ğını ara ştırmaktır. Böylelikle Türkiye’nin AB’ye katılımının di ğer geni şleme süreçleriyle benzer şekilde yürütülüp yürütülemeyece ği konusu da kavranmı ş olacaktır. Bu tez çalı şması ile, Helsinki Zirvesi sonrası dönemde AB'de genel kamuoyu perspektifinin nasıl şekillendi ği ve ne tür de ğişimler gösterdi ğini incelenmi ştir. Avrupa’da, Türkiye’nin AB’ye katılımı hakkındaki genel e ğilimleri belirlemek amacıyla, konuya ili şkin üç farklı yakla şıma, İngiliz, Fransız ve Alman perspektiflerine yer verilmi ştir. Bu amaçla da resmi görü şlerin yanı sıra, çe şitli siyasi partilerin ve sivil toplum kurulu şlarının programlarında ve kampanyalarında yer alan olumlu ve olumsuz tezlerinden, bu tezlerin ve yakla şımların görsel ve yazılı basındaki yansımalarından ve son yıllarda yapılan ara ştırmalar ile kamuoyu yoklamalarından kar şıla ştırmalı olarak faydalanılmı ştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: AB, Türkiye, Kamuoyu, İngiltere, Fransa, Almanya v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Ra şit Kaya for his great support and tolerance throughout the completion of my thesis. Without his guidance and valueable suggestions this thesis would not have been possible. I would also like to thank to my examination committee members Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sevilay Kahraman and Assist. Prof. Dr. Nail Alkan for their very useful contributions to the thesis. Finally, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my family and my friends. Their persistent support encouraged me to keep on studying in the process of writing my thesis. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM.....................................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT............................. ..................................................................................... iv ÖZ................................................... .....................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.............. .....................................................................................vi TABLE OF CONTENTS........ ..................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1. INTRO DUCTION………………………………………………………….. 1 2. THE PUBLIC OPINION, EU and TURKEY……………………………….. 4 2.1 The Role Of Public Opinion On Policy Formulation.....................................4 2.2 The EU Today....................................................... ..........................................6 2.3 A Brief Account Of The Turkish –Eu Encounters Since Turkish Application For Membership.........................................................................12 2.4 Arguments And Reasons Evoked Against and/or For Turkish Membership....................................................................................................18 3. FRENCH POSITION AND ATTITUDE OF FRENCH PUBLIC OPINION AS TO TURKISH MEMBERSHIP TO EU……………………….24 3.1 A Brief History of Turkish-French Relations………………. ........................24 3.2 French Position On Enlargement.. ..................................................................27 3.3 French Position On Turkish Accession...................... ....................................30 3.3.1 Position of Major Political Forces..........................................................30 3.3.2 The Media’s Impact on French Public Opinion.....................................46 3.3.3 Other Actors Who Have A Role On The Shaping Of French Public Opinion.......................................................................................50 4. GERMAN POSITIODN AND ATTITUDE OF GERMAN PUBLIC OPINION AS TO TURKISH MEMBERSHIP TO EU……………………….64 4.1 A Brief History of Turkish-German Relations……………. ........................64 4.2 German Position On Enlargement. .................................................................68 4.3 German Position On Turkish Accession.. ...................................................70.... vii 4.3.1 Position of Major Political Forces..........................................................70 4.3.2 The Media’s Impact on German Public Opinion......... ..........................95 4.3.3 Other Actors Who Have A Role On The Shaping Of German Public Opinion.......................................................................................98 5. BRITISH POSITION AND ATTITUDE OF BRITISH PUBLIC OPINION AS TO TURKISH MEMBERSHIP TO EU ……………………….108 5.1 A Brief History of Turkish-British Relations……….……. ........................108 5.2 British Position On Enlargement.. ..................................................................111 5.3 British Position On Turkish Accession.. ...................................................111..... 5.3.1 Position of Major Political Forces..........................................................114 5.3.2 The Media’s Impact on British Publi c Opinion.....................................129 5.3.3 Other Actors Who Have A Role On The Shaping Of British Public Opinion.......................................................................................135 6. GENERAL ASSESMENT……………………………………..……………….144 7. CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………….159 REFERENCES...............................................................................................................169 viii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The subject of enlargement is a key aspect in shaping the future of European Union (EU). Debates on the absorption capacity of the Union and the implications of the accession of new members have become an everyday calculation for both member and candidate countries. In the case of Turkey’s candidacy, the speculations, debates and various accession scenarios seem even more vivid. Turkey’s many distinctive characteristics compared to those of current members make the relations between Turkey and EU quite controversial. On the road ahead, there lay many topics that need to be discussed and solved. Since a clear date of accession is still unknown, the issue of Turkish accession seems to continue to be a debated issue for quite a long time. The main aim of this thesis is to question and examine the main factors that influence and shape the perceptions about the issue of Turkish Accession to the EU in the eyes of the governments and the peoples of EU countries. To attain this purpose, three major countries of the EU, namely France, Germany and Britain are selected for analysis. What the publics of these countries think or how they perceive the issue is of great importance for the future development of Turkey’s accession process for membership. Although sometimes there are some discrepancies between the general view point of the public and the actions of politicians, the impact of the public opinion in decision making and implementation processes is still too significant to ignore. 1 As for the analysis the time period between the 1999 Helsinki summit