20042004 AA RecordRecord YearYear forfor TornadoesTornadoes Dan McCarthy, Joe Schaefer and Greg Carbin NWS Storm Prediction Center 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 1 Workshop Main Aspects of 2004 • Very slow start for tornadoes – Below normal through April – April highlight in Illinois • Two-personality May – Unfavorable pattern through the 19th – Very favorable after the 20th • A Tropical Storm and 5 Hurricanes • Busy “second season” THIS LEAD TO 1,722 TORNADO REPORTS IN 2004 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 2 Workshop 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 200 400 600 800 0 1950 Tornadoes By Year 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 Workshop 1974 Year 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 3 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 100 150 200 250 50 0 1950 Tornado Days 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 Workshop 1974 Y 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 4 Tornado Fatalities 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 5 Workshop 2004 Tornado Reports 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Second 1400 Season 1300 1200 1100 Hurricanes 1000 900 800 700 600 Outbreaks 500 in late May 400 Utica, IL 300 200 100 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 6 Workshop Tornadoes by Month 600 546 500 400 300 268 247 200 173 134 115 106 100 58 33 28 2 7 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Record based on preliminary reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 7 Workshop Tornadoes in Hawaii Interesting way to begin the Year 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 8 Workshop Tornadoes near Oahu, HI • Witnesses reported three tornadoes • “funnels would start at the top, disappear and start again from the bottom.” • Record for Hawaii is 5 tornadoes in 1971 • The 3 tornadoes on 1/23/04 ties 1982 for second highest 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 9 Workshop April 20, 2004 Utica, IL Tornado 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 10 Workshop 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 11 Workshop Synoptic Set Up 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 12 Workshop Upper Air • Strong divergent flow at 250 mb • Strong low level jet of 40- 50 kt at 850 mb • Low level jet across surface warm front provide strong ascent • Upper level flow enhances vertical shear 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 13 Workshop Central IL Radar at 2330 UTC Utica 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 14 Workshop Peru/Utica, IL Tornado • 8 fatalities • People took shelter in basement of Milestone Tap • A structure that was 117 years old built of sandstone block and supported by railroad ties- type beams • Damage was evaluated at F3 on F-Scale 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 15 Workshop May 2004 The Tale of Two Seasons 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 16 Workshop 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 100 120 20 40 60 80 0 5/1 5/2 Quiet Start…Loud Finish 5/3 5/4 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8 5/9 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 Workshop 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/23 5/24 5/25 5/26 5/27 5/28 5/29 5/30 5/31 17 In Another View… 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 5/1 5/3 5/5 5/7 5/9 5/11 5/13 5/15 5/17 5/19 5/21 5/23 5/25 5/27 5/29 5/31 M 2004 M 2003 30 YR A 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 18 Workshop And Yet Another… 450 400 350 300 250 May 200 16-31 150 100 Number of Tornado Reports May 50 1-15 0 82 409 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 19 Workshop Changes at 500 mb… • Trough develops over the west • Allows southwest flow across the Plains • More favorable for severe weather 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 20 Workshop Leads to Changes at 850 mb • Began with ridging over Gulf of Mexico – Limiting low level moisture advection • Changes to lower heights over Colorado – Western Gulf of Mexico opens up allowing moisture return 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 21 Workshop May 22, 2004 – Hallam, NE • Outbreak would include largest damage path on record – 2.5 mile wide maximum path width – Would cause F4 damage…and center of storm was south of town!!! 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 22 Workshop Video of tornado near Daykin, NE 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 23 Workshop May 29-30 Outbreak Tornadoes from the Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 24 Workshop 149 tornado reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 25 Workshop Like the Super Outbreak in ’74? • No tornadoes rated with F5 damage – April 3-4 had 6 • Happened in a 32 hour period – April 3-4 was in 16 hours • 82 tornadoes were rated F0 • Five fatalities – April 3-4 had 315 fatalities 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 26 Workshop May 29th at 00 UTC 850 mb 250 mb 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 27 Workshop Thermodynamics-040530 at 00 UTC 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 28 Workshop May 30th at 00 UTC 850 mb 500 mb 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 29 Workshop Thermodynamics - 040530 12 UTC 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 30 Workshop June 23rd Markesan, WI 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 31 Workshop Northwest Flow Case 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 32 Workshop Meteorology 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 33 Workshop Madison, WI 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 34 Workshop Markesan, WI 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 35 Workshop July 13th Metamora, IL Another Northwest Flow Case 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 36 Workshop A Real Success Story! 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 37 Workshop Tornado Track 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 38 Workshop No Fatalities…They were Ready 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 39 Workshop Hurricane Related Tornadoes Six Tropical Systems = 306 Reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 40 Workshop Estimated Tracks & Reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 41 Workshop Late November Outbreak Dixie Alley Gets Hit 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 42 Workshop November Tornado Reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 43 Workshop One Last Round December – Dixie Alley & Southern California 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 44 Workshop December Tornado Reports 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 45 Workshop In Summary • Preliminary record number of tornadoes – 1,722 – Eclipses previous record of 1,424 in 1998 – This is 72% more than normal – This is 44% above the 10-year average • 36 tornado related fatalities – 20 killer tornadoes – 35% below average • 159 tornado days – 22% below average 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 46 Workshop 2004 Tornadoes By State 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 47 Workshop http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html 2004 Tornado Activity 1800 1700 1,722 1600 1500 1,424 1400 1300 1,368 1200 1,200 1100 1000 1,004 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 48 Workshop National Severe Weather Workshop • March 3, 4, & 5 in Oklahoma City • Reed Center • Geared for Emergency Managers and Media • Presentations on NWS products-Storm Spotter and Radar Training • www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww2005 3/10/05 2005 National Severe Weather 49 Workshop.