NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN 1.1 OVERVIEW OF EXISTING TRAVEL MARKET ............................................................................ 1-1 1.2 STUDY PROCESS ........................................................................................................... 1-8 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE .................................................................................................... 1-10 2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 2-1 3.1 OVERVIEW OF EXISTING TRAVEL MARKET ........................................................................... 3-1 3.2 BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE COMPASS™ TRAVEL MARKET FORECAST MODEL .............................. 3-1 3.3 ZONE DEFINITION ........................................................................................................ 3-3 3.4 SOCIOECONOMIC BASELINE AND PROJECTIONS ..................................................................... 3-4 3.5 EXISTING TRAVEL MODES ............................................................................................... 3-6 3.6 ORIGIN-DESTINATION TRIP DATABASE .............................................................................. 3-9 3.7 FUTURE TRAVEL MARKET STRATEGIES ............................................................................. 3-11 3.7.1 FUEL PRICE FORECASTS ..................................................................................... 3-11 3.7.2 VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY FORECAST .................................................................... 3-13 3.4.3 HIGHWAY TRAFFIC CONGESTION ......................................................................... 3-14 3.8 CORRIDOR TRAVEL MARKET FORECASTS WITHOUT PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE ........................... 3-15 3.9 CORRIDOR TRAVEL MARKET FORECASTS WITH PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE ................................. 3-17 4.1 CONTEXT OF THE ENGINEERING ASSESSMENT ....................................................................... 4-1 4.2 HISTORICAL CONTEXT FOR THE STUDY .............................................................................. 4-2 4.3 INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT CATEGORIES AND UNIT COSTS .............................................. 4-4 4.4 INFRASTRUCTURE DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................ 4-8 4.4.1 COLUMBUS TO CP MOUNDS .................................................................................. 4-8 4.4.2 CP MOUNDS TO DUNKIRK .................................................................................. 4-14 4.4.3 DUNKIRK TO FORT WAYNE ................................................................................. 4-18 Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page ii NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN 4.4.4 FORT WAYNE TO TOLLESTON .............................................................................. 4-28 4.4.5 130-MPH ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FORT WAYNE TO TOLLESTON SEGMENT .................... 4-34 4.4.6 COMPARISON TO 2007 OHIO HUB PLAN ............................................................... 4-36 4.5 ROLLING STOCK COST ................................................................................................. 4-37 4.6 CAPITAL COST SUMMARY ............................................................................................. 4-38 4.7 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ................................................................................................ 4-38 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 TRAIN TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................. 5-2 5.3 TRAIN PERFORMANCE AND SCHEDULE – DIESEL – 110 AND DIESEL 130 .................................... 5-3 5.4 TRAIN TIMETABLE AND CYCLING ...................................................................................... 5-5 5.5 OPERATING COSTS ........................................................................................................ 5-8 5.5.1 VARIABLE COSTS .............................................................................................. 5-11 5.5.2 FIXED ROUTE COSTS ......................................................................................... 5-14 5.6 2030 OPERATING COST RESULT .................................................................................... 5-19 6.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES ............................................................................. 6-2 6.2.1 KEY ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................. 6-4 6.2.2 ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS .......................................................................... 6-5 6.3 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 6-9 6.3.1 FINANCIAL RESULTS ............................................................................................ 6-9 6.3.2 ECONOMIC RESULTS .......................................................................................... 6-15 6.4 DIESEL 130 SHARED INFRASTRUCTURE COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ..................................... 6-30 7.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 7-1 7.2 THE CHARACTER OF THE OVERALL ECONOMY ...................................................................... 7-1 Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page iii NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN 7.3 ASSESSING SUPPLYSIDE BENEFITS ..................................................................................... 7-4 7.4 DATA SOURCES AND STUDY DATABASE ............................................................................. 7-6 7.5 SUPPLY SIDE ANALYSIS RESULTS: DERIVING ECONOMIC RENT ELASTICITIES ................................ 7-7 7.5.1 CALCULATING SENSITIVITIES ................................................................................. 7-7 7.5.2 PRELIMINARY RESULTS ...................................................................................... 7-10 7.5.2.1 JOB TYPE CREATION ........................................................................... 7-11 7.5.3 INCOME BENEFITS ............................................................................................ 7-12 7.5.4 PROPERTY VALUES ........................................................................................... 7-13 7.6 TRANSFER PAYMENT ANALYSIS RESULT ........................................................................... 7-13 7.6.1 FEDERAL AND STATE INCREASED INCOME TAX BASE ................................................. 7-13 7.7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................ 7-14 7.7.1 ECONOMIC BENEFITS TO THE ECONOMY (SUPPLYSIDE ANALYSIS) ................................. 7-14 8.1 OVERALL FINDINGS ....................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 FINANCIAL BENEFITS ...................................................................................................... 8-4 8.3 BENEFIT COST .............................................................................................................. 8-4 8.4 ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS (SUPPLYSIDE) ........................................................................ 8-5 Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page iv NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN The purpose of this Feasibility Study and Business Plan is to evaluate the case for developing high- speed rail operations in the Northern Indiana/Ohio Passenger Rail Corridor between Chicago, Fort Wayne, and Columbus. The Chicago-Fort Wayne-Columbus corridor (Exhibit 1-1) was initially proposed in the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI) 2004 (Phase 5) which is federally approved and was incorporated into the Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail: Ohio Hub Study (2007) as an incremental corridor. These proposals were for 110 mph Diesel technology service linking Chicago with Northwest Indiana, Northeast Indiana, and Central Ohio (Exhibits 1-2 and 1-3). Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page 1-1 NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page 1-2 NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN Prepared by Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. December 2012 | Page 1-3 NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY AND BUSINESS PLAN The proposed service parallels some of the most congested highway corridors in the US including I-80, I-94 and I-90 in the Chicago, Northwest Indiana (Gary) area, where all the east-west connections for the northern part of the country are forced together by Lake Michigan. This creates a major bottleneck, which will only become more congested in the future. In addition, the