Table of Contents Welcome Message, Dr Gary Metcalf, ISSS President ...................................................... 3 Sponsors and Affiliated Organizations .............................................................................. 5 Conference Schedule........................................................................................................ 7 Plenary Speakers............................................................................................................ 21 Plenary Abstracts............................................................................................................ 29 Workshop and Roundtable Abstracts.............................................................................. 37 List of Paper Abstracts.................................................................................................... 41 Paper Abstracts............................................................................................................... 49 Author Index ….. .......................................................................................................... 113 Keyword Index ............................................................................................................. 117 ISSS and Sponsor Announcements.............................................................................. 125 Madison Maps............................................................................................................... 128 ISBN: 978-1-906740-01-6 1 2 Welcome ISSS 2008 Gary S. Metcalf, Ph.D. Dear Colleagues and Friends, Welcome to Madison, WI, and to the 52nd annual conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences. Regardless of how firm the plans, or how clear the initial vision, a conference is an evolving process. This one even began without a location, since I had no physical university campus or facility from which to host it. Thanks to Tim Allen, our incoming president, we were able to secure space in this beautiful venue on the campus of the University of Wisconsin, in Madison. That was only the beginning of the process, though, because it was through the connection with Tim that I learned much more about his work, and that of his many colleagues and the larger network of researchers focused on the immense complexities of ecological systems and sustainability. Rather than changing the focus of the conference, it only brought more focus and clarity to it. The theme initially chosen for the conference was Systems That Make a Difference, drawing from Gregory Bateson’s notion of information as “a difference that makes a difference.” The intent, though, was never to make this a conference about Gregory Bateson, or about his work explicitly. It was to borrow from his thoughts as yet another way to challenge our collective work and our direction as a society. In my incoming presidential address last year, I tried to capture the same intent in terms of the (apparent) dichotomy between rigor and relevance. It is critical that our work be sound, and that we not tolerate groundless fantasies as representing us. If our work results in no direct value to the larger society, though, we can hardly blame the general public for not understanding. We know the implicit value of our work. For over 50 years we have been led and joined by dedicated, intriguing, and often brilliant thinkers. Sometimes others have understood the importance of systems sciences; often they have not. Many of those who have glimpsed its importance have done so at a distance, and opaquely. Universities rarely knew where to situate programs. Funding agencies typically preferred simpler, narrower approaches that promised unequivocal answers or predictions, regardless of their limitations. Some have declared the systems sciences to be vestiges of the past; something which had its time, but whose value is gone. On the contrary, it may be another 50 years, or more, before these ideas are truly understood enough to move into the mainstream. In the meantime, the list of challenges that we are facing is growing rapidly. This has been another devastating year of natural disasters for people in many places around the world. More importantly, both policy-makers and the general public seem to be starting to understand the interconnectedness of energy, economics, food supplies, the environment, etc. Unfortunately, that only causes many to throw up their hands in helplessness. It may be a time, though, when we can begin to think in new ways. 3 We have, as society, made a difference simply by carrying forward the ideas of our founders. I can’t imagine that they would be content to stay where we are, though. We have much more that we can do. I welcome each of you to this conference, with all of the ideas and energy that you care to bring to it. I think that you will find room for all that you are willing to share and contribute. Gary S. Metcalf 2008 President, International Society for the Systems Sciences 4 Co-Sponsors & Affiliated Organizations The following organizations have provided various levels of support for the ISSS 2008 conference. All have agreed to publicize the conference through their institutional networks. In addition, those so designated have provided either financial or in-kind support through participation in conference planning and facilitation. Conference Partners Please see page 125 for further information from these sponsors. 5 6 Conference Program and Schedule SUNDAY, JULY 13, 2008 Pre-conference Workshops 09:00 - 11:00 Key Tools for Doing Systems Science, Len Troncale Inn Wisconsin 09:00 - 17:00 Fundamentals of Relational Science: Building a Curriculum, John Kineman and Judith Rosen Old Madison East 13:00 - 17:00 Introducing a System of Systems Processes (SOSP), Len Troncale Inn Wisconsin Registration 13:00 - 18:00 Registration Annex Room, Memorial Union Lobby Reception 18:00 - 20:00 Reception Main Lounge, Memorial Union 7 MONDAY, JULY 14, 2008 08:00 - 18:00 Registration Annex Room, Memorial Union Lobby 08:00 - 09:00 ISSS Roundtable Capitol View Room, 4th Floor Plenary Sessions: All plenaries held in Tripp Commons, 2nd Floor (number in parentheses refers to abstract number) 09:00 - 09:30 Conference Opening, Gary Metcalf: The Science and the Perspective of Systems (1069) 09:30 - 10:15 Bobby Milstein, Centers for Disease Control: Crafting a Health System that Protects Us All: Syndemics, Simulation Scenarios, and Social Change (1061) 10:15 - 10:45 Coffee Break Tripp Commons, 2nd Floor 10:45 - 11:30 David Schwartz, U. of WI, Genomics: Plunge of the New Biology into Complexity (1033) 11:30 - 12:15 Manfred Drack, Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Sciences: von Bertalanffy Lecture. Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s Early System Approach (1031) 12:30 - 13:30 Lunch Great Hall, 4th Floor 8 13:30 - 15:00 Paper Sessions Stream 1: Inn Wisconsin Stream 2: Inn Wisconsin West Stream 3: Old Madison Stream 4: Old Madison West Stream 5: Reception East East Room SIG: Evolutionary SIG: Applied Systems and SIG: Hierarchy Theory SIG: Agent-based Social Development Development Simulation; Systems Modeling and Simulation Chair: Alexander and Chair: Dennis Finlayson Chair: Jennifer Wilby Chair: Takehiro Inohara Kathia Laszlo Introduction and 1008 (no paper) Human Rights Revisited: 885 (894) A Business Model 964 (1007) Preservation of discussion of Evolutionary Reciprocity, Stakeholders, Lifecycles and Architecture: Observation Misperceptions: Stability Development Systemic Issues? Problems and Solutions in Analysis of Hypergames Finlayson, Dennis Edward Modelling Businesses and Sasaki, Yasuo; Kijima, Kyoichi their Networks Shaw, Duncan Robert 1055 (no paper) Leaders 1049 (no paper) Design for an 931 (no paper) Coevolving 921 (no paper) Methodology of Change: Social Assessment of Gaining Access to the Open Source Business toward a Model of Earthquake Entrepreneurship and the International Interoperability Systems in Models and Private Source Prediction Creation of Ecologies of the Bid for Secession Business Models Patino-Ortiz, Julian; Badillo- Solutions Solomons, Leonie Marilynne Ing, David Pina, Isaias Jose; Patino-Ortiz, Castro Laszlo, Kathia Miguel 994 (no paper) Co- 928 (no paper) Slum Communities as 916 (1006) The Hard Facts 969 (974) Architecture Case Creating Living Systems Complex Adaptive Systems: Using of Soft Social Systems: A Study in Transformity that Thrive on Diversity Complexity Science to Inform an General Systems Factorization Southern, Nancy Adaptive Ecosystem Approach to Explanatory Model for Collins, Dennis Glenn Environment and Health in Informal Schools and Workplaces Settlements in Chennai, India Gabriele, Susan Farr Bunch, Martin Joseph; Franklin, Beth; Morley, David; Romona, Gananathan 15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break Tripp Commons, 2nd Floor 9 15:30 - 17:30 Paper Sessions Stream 1: Inn Wisconsin Stream 2: Inn Wisconsin West Stream 3: Old Madison Stream 4: Old Madison Stream 5: Reception Room East East West SIG: Evolutionary SIG: Health Systems SIG: Hierarchy Theory SIGs: Living Sytems Special SABI panel: Development Analysis; What is Life and Conversation on globalization Living? and localization Chair: Alexander and Chair: Thomas Wong Chair: Jennifer Wilby Chair: Jim Simms Chair: David Ing Kathia Laszlo 915 (no paper) Toward a 866 (973) A Difficult Balance: 1057 (1065) Complexity, 904 (905) A Service Proposed trigger question: Description of the Decisions in Health Care Global Climate Change and Science Perspective What can we expect in social Consciousness Field Metcalf, Marilyn A Soil