Olafur Thordur Hardarson Parties and voters in Iceland. A study of the 1983 and 1987 Althingi elections A thesis submitted for a final examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Government London School of Economics and Political Science University of London 1994 UMI Number: U074584 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Disscrrlation Publishing UMI U074584 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 h+eses F 723.S 1^1 To Hjordis Abstract This thesis analyses the 1983 and 1987 Althingi elections in Iceland, a micro state with rich literary and historical traditions, including the Althingi which Icelanders claim to be the oldest parliament in the world. Three theoretical approaches - a party identification approach, a rational approcah, and a social-structural approach - are used. A special effort is made to compare the Icelandic findings to voting behaviour in Norway and Sweden. Direct party switching (23% in 1983 and 36% in 1987) is shown to be the main reason for the major changes in election results, while the impact of new voters and mobilization and demobilization of voters was small. As in many European countries, voters often change party identification when they switch parties, thus limiting the usefulness of the party identification model. Nevertheless party identification, while weaker than in Scandinavia, serves to tie parties to voters, along with party membership, participation in primaries, and exposure to the press. In accord with a rational approach, Icelandic voters have a cognitive map of the party system along left-right lines, as is the case in Scandinavia. Most voters can rank the parties on a left-right continuum, which is related to party choice, like and dislike for the parties and party leaders, and voters' stance on issues. A left- right issue factor is by far most strongly related to party choice, as in Scandinavia, while an urban-rural factor on which the ranking of parties is different, reduces the correspondence between the left-right spectrum and vote switching. While issue voting in Iceland is high, it is lower than in Norway and Sweden. The thesis argues, that the main reason is that Icelandic parties offer less clear and stable alternatives in elections. Social-structural variables are generally weakly related to party choice. Class voting has decreased dramatically, and is much weaker than in Norway and Sweden. The thesis is based on the first election surveys in Iceland, conducted by the author. Three data sets are used, based on random samples from the National Register: from 1983 (N=1003) , from 1987 (N=1745) , and a 1983-1987 panel (N=678). Acknowledgements This thesis has been a long time in the making. During my stay as a research student at the L.S.E, 1979-81 I began preparing the Icelandic Election Study project. The design of the election studies took place at the University of Iceland, where I have been lecturing since 1980. My former student and present colleague, Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, was my research assistant in 1982-83 and made an invaluable contribution to the original survey design as well as the design of the 1987 study. His encouragement and constructive criticism have been of great help throughout the entire process. The election studies were carried out after the Althingi elections of 1983 and 1987. Much of the writing of the thesis itself took place during the summers and autumns of 1989 and 1990, when I had the good fortune to stay as a visiting scholar at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and in the eastern town of Neskaupstadur, Iceland, during the summer of 1992. The final effort was made in the autumn of 1993, when as a visiting academic I enjoyed the superb hospitality of the Department of Government at the L.S.E. In designing the Icelandic Election Studies I profited greatly from the advice of several outstanding scholars of electoral research, especially Henry Valen, University of Oslo, Bo Sarlvik and Soren Holmberg, University of Gothenburg, and Ivor Crewe, University of Essex, where I stayed as an academic vistitor during the autumn of 1984. The Icelandic Science Fund has been the main financial contributor to the Icelandic Election Studies, while the Icelandic Commission on Security and International Affairs, the Nordic cooperation committe for research on international relations (NORDSAM), and the University of Iceland Research Fund also contributed. The Social Science Research Institute at the University of Iceland carried out the interviews in 1987. My thanks go to its competent staff, especially the director, Stefan Olafsson, as well as my interviewers in the 1983 study. I am very grateful to my colleages at the Faculty of Social Science, University of Iceland, for their help during the project, especially Svanur Kristjansson, Gunnar Gunnarsson and Fridrik H. Jonsson. Keneva Kunz did her best to correct my English. I am especially indebted to my supervisor at the L.S.E., Tom Nossiter, for his friendship, intellectual generosity and constructive criticism during the years. Finally, I would like to express my thanks to the respondents in the Election Studies, without whom the whole exercise would not been possible. Contents Abstract 3 Acknowledgements 4 Contents 5 List of Tables 7 List of Figures 15 Abbreviations of names of political parties 15 Chapter I: Introduction 16 1.1 The outlines of the Icelandic party system 17 1.2 Theoretical background 27 1.3 The data 30 1.4 The structure of the thesis 33 Chapter II: The elections of 1983 and 1987 36 11.1 The 1983 election campaign 36 11.2 Movements in the 1983 election: How did the results come about? 48 11.3 The decision-making process 1983: When did the voters decide? Did they consider other parties? 69 11.4 The 1987 election campaign 79 11.5 Movements in the 1987 election: How did the results come about? 83 11.6 The decision-making process 1987: When did the voters decide? Did they consider other parties? 106 Chapter III: Voters' ties to the parties 117 111.1 Party identification 117 111.2 Party membership 150 111.3 Participation in primaries 165 111.4 Exposure to the (party) press 174 111.5 Personal acquaintance with Members of Althingi 186 Chapter IV: Voters' view of party system dimensions 192 IV.1 The left-right model and Icelandic politics 192 IV.2 Voters' left-right positions and their like- dislike of parties and party leaders 197 IV.3 Left-right positions of voters within each party and the parties' popularities 224 IV.4 The left-right model and voters' stances on issues 230 IV.5 The left-right model and vote switching 241 Chapter V: Issues and voting behaviour 247 Chapter VI : Social background 300 VI.1 Sex and age 301 VI.2 Education 321 VI.3 Class, occupation, public or private sector 330 VI.4 Income 363 VI.5 Parental influences 369 Chapter VII: Conclusions 385 Appendix A: Distributions of answers to issue questions in 1983 and 1987 399 Appendix B: The questionnarie for telephone interviews in the Icelandic Election Study 1983 413 Appendix C: The questionnarie for telephone interviews in the Icelandic Election Study 1987 418 Bibliography 423 List of Tables Table 1.1.1. Results of Althingi Elections 1916-1987. Percentages. Net gains. Table 1.1.2. Mean support for the four old parties in Althingi Elections during selected periods 1931-1987. Percentages. Table 1.3.1. Response rate in the Icelandic Election Study of 1983. Table 1.3.2. Response rate in the 1983-87 panel. Telephone interviews. Table 1.3.3. Response rate in new sample in 1987. Telephone interviews. Table II.1.1. Voting intentions 1982-1983 according to DV's opinion polls. Only those who named a party are included. Percentages. Table II.1.2. Results of Althingi Elections 1971-1983. Percentage of valid votes (number of seats in the Althingi). Table II.2.1. Actual results and reported vote in 1978, 1979 and 1983. Percentages. Table II.2.2. Net gains/losses of the old parties 1978- 1979 and 1979-1983. Percentages. Table II.2.3. The impact of new voters 1983. Percentages. Table II.2.4. New voters in 1978 and 1979 compared to all voters. Percentages. Table II.2.5. Results and net gains/losses 1978, 1979 and 1983. Comparison of the actual result, recalled vote of the whole sample and recalled vote of new voters. Percentages. Table II.2.6. Voting or non-voting (abstaining or turning in a blank or void ballot) 1978, 1979 and 1983. Percentages. Table II.2.7. How often do you use your vote by recalled voting behaviour 1978, 1979, and 1983. Percentages. Table II.2.8. Effects of mobilization and demobilization in the 1983 election. Percentages. Table II.2.9. Electoral behaviour 1978, 1979 and 1983. Percentages. Table II.2.10. Answers to the question: "Do you always vote for the same party?" by recalled electoral behaviour 1978-1983. Percentages. Table II.2.11. Party switching 1983: What happened to the 1979 vote? Percentages. Table II.2.12. Party switching 1983: Where did the 1983 vote come from? Percentages.