A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency 2012 Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY A Joint Report by ISBN 978-92-64-17803-8 the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand © OECD 2012 NEA No. 7059 NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 34 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. 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The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of all member countries. NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership consists of 30 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission also takes part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: – to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as – to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as energy and sustainable development. Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. In these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear field. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2012 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) [email protected]. Cover photos: Uranium “yellow cake” (AREVA); Georges Besse II enrichment facility, France (AREVA). PREFACE Preface Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the “Red Book”. This 24th edition of the Red Book reflects information current as of 1 January 2011. This edition features a comprehensive assessment of uranium supply and demand in 2011 and projections of supply and demand to the year 2035. The basis of this assessment is a comparison of uranium resource estimates (according to categories of geological certainty and production cost) and mine production capability with anticipated uranium requirements arising from projections of installed nuclear capacity. In cases where longer-term projections of installed nuclear capacity were not provided by national authorities, projected demand figures were developed with input from expert authorities. Current data on resources, exploration, production and uranium stocks are also presented, along with historical summaries of exploration and production and plans for future mine production. In addition, individual country reports provide detailed information on recent developments in uranium exploration and production, updates on environmental activities and information on relevant national uranium policies. This edition of the Red Book also includes a compilation and evaluation of previously published data on unconventional uranium resources. Available information on secondary sources of uranium is presented and their potential impact on the market is assessed. This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by the NEA to OECD member countries (18 countries responded and 1 country report was prepared by the Secretariat) and by the IAEA for those states that are not OECD member countries (24 countries responded and 7 country reports were prepared by the Secretariat). The opinions expressed in Chapters 1 and 2 do not necessarily reflect the position of the member countries or international organisations concerned. This report is published on the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General. Acknowledgements The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, gratefully acknowledges the co-operation of those organisations (see Appendix 2) which replied to the questionnaire. URANIUM 2011: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, ISBN 978-92-64-17803-8, © OECD 2012 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 1. Uranium supply .......................................................................................................... 15 Uranium resources .................................................................................................................... 15 Uranium exploration ................................................................................................................. 38 Uranium production .................................................................................................................. 59 References ................................................................................................................................... 73 Chapter 2. Uranium demand ....................................................................................................... 75 Current commercial nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements .............................................................................................................................. 75 Projected nuclear power capacity and related uranium requirements to 2035 ............... 92 Uranium supply and demand relationships ........................................................................ 101 The long-term perspective ..................................................................................................... 119 References ................................................................................................................................. 123 Chapter 3. National reports on uranium exploration, resources, production, demand and the environment ............................................................................... 125 Algeria ....................................................................................................................................... 126 Argentina .................................................................................................................................