Rural R&D for Profit program Final Report Improved use of seasonal forecasting to increase farmer profitability 14-01-010 by AgriFutures Australia June 2015- June 2018 © 2019 AgriFutures Australia All rights reserved. ISBN 978-1-76053-061-7 Rural R&D for Profit program Final Report: Improved use of seasonal forecasting to increase farmer profitability AgriFutures Australia Publication No. 19-055 Rural R&D for Profit program project 14-01-010 __________________________________________ The information contained in this publication is intended for general use to assist public knowledge and discussion and to help improve the development of sustainable regions. You must not rely on any information contained in this publication without taking specialist advice relevant to your particular circumstances. 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Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to AgriFutures Australia Communications Team on 02 6923 6900. AgriFutures Australia Contact Details Building 007, Tooma Way Charles Sturt University Locked Bag 588 Wagga Wagga NSW 2650 02 6923 6900 [email protected] www.agrifutures.com.au Electronically published by AgriFutures Australia at www.agrifutures.com.au in December 2019 AgriFutures Australia is the new trading name for Rural Industries Research & Development Corporation (RIRDC), a statutory authority of the Federal Government established by the Primary Industries Research and Development Act 1989. Rural R&D for Profit Program Final Report Improved Use of Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Farmer Profitability Contents 1 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. 5 2 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ 6 3 Plain English summary .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Background .................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.2 Objectives and methodology ................................................................................................................ 8 3.3 Outcomes and Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 8 3.4 Implications for industry/primary farmers ................................................................................... 9 3.5 Recommendations for further research and improved adoption ......................................... 9 4 Abbreviations .........................................................................................................................................10 5 Project rationale and objectives ......................................................................................................11 5.1 Project 1- Valuing the Forecast ......................................................................................................... 11 5.2 Project 2- Using the Forecast.............................................................................................................. 12 5.3 Project 3- ACCESS-S Enhancement .................................................................................................. 14 6 Method and Project Locations ..........................................................................................................15 6.1 Project 1a .................................................................................................................................................... 15 6.2 Project 1b .................................................................................................................................................... 16 6.3 Project 2a and 2b ..................................................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Project 3 ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 7 Project Outcomes ..................................................................................................................................18 7.1 Project 1a and 1b (June 2015- June 2018) ................................................................................... 18 7.2 Project 1a and 1b (December 2017 – May 2018) ...................................................................... 28 7.3 Project 2a and 2b (July 2014 – June 2018) ................................................................................... 34 7.4 Project 2a and 2b (July 2014 – June 2018) ................................................................................... 41 7.5 Project 2a and 2b (July 2014 – June 2018) ................................................................................... 47 7.6 Project 2a and 2b (December 2015 – May 2018) ...................................................................... 58 7.7 Project 3 (June 2015 – June 2018) ................................................................................................... 71 8 Collaboration ..........................................................................................................................................88 9 Extension and adoption activities ...................................................................................................92 9.1 USQ ................................................................................................................................................................ 92 9.2 NSW DPI ...................................................................................................................................................... 92 9.3 BCG ................................................................................................................................................................ 96 9.4 DEDJTR ..................................................................................................................................................... 101 9.5 DPIRD ........................................................................................................................................................ 106 9.6 SARDI......................................................................................................................................................... 108 3 Rural R&D for Profit Program Final Report Improved Use of Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Farmer Profitability 10 Lessons learnt ...................................................................................................................................... 110 10.1 NSW DPI ................................................................................................................................................... 110 10.2 Birchip Cropping Group ..................................................................................................................... 110 10.3 DEDJTR ..................................................................................................................................................... 113 10.4 DPIRD ........................................................................................................................................................ 115 11 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................ 116 Note: the department will publish the final report on its website but will not publish the appendices. 4 Rural R&D for Profit Program Final Report Improved Use of Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Farmer Profitability 1 List of Tables Table 1: Web sites and decision-support systems of value to farmers and producers. ................................. 26 Table 2 Case study locations. .................................................................................................................................................. 30 Table 3: The predicted adoption levels of seasonal forecasting in the SWWA region. .................................. 52 Table 4: Example of a straightforward decision framework for adopting SCFs in on-farm decision making, with the outline of both a Plan A and a Plan B for financial investment. The information is based on topdressing for a given year in Australia. .....................................................................................................