ANALYSIS OF ETHIOPIAN ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION TOWARDS RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR EXPANSION Master Thesis Presented By Deepak Kumar Mohapatra 11115189, Renewable Energy Management, Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics Email: [email protected] Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Johannes Hamhaber, TH Köln Mr. David Lecoque, Alliance for Rural Electrification Thesis to obtain the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE awarded by COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES Date of Submission: 05.01.2019 Acknowledgements At first, I would like to extend my gratitude towards the department of Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics at Technische Hochschule Köln for giving me a chance to study the master programme of Renewable Energy Management and offering me priceless experiences. I would like to thank my supervisors Prof. Dr. Johannes Hamhaber from Technische Hochschule Köln and Mr. David Lecoque from Alliance for Rural Electrification for their invaluable support and guidance throughout the course of this research work. Last but not the least, I would take the opportunity to thank my parents, colleagues, friends, well-wishers, and the people associated directly and indirectly with this research work for keeping up my spirits and motivating me constantly. i | P a g e Table of Contents Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... i Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... vi List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... viii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ x Chapter 1: Background of the thesis ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Defining the area of research ........................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Objectives of this paper .................................................................................................................... 3 1.4. Scopes of this paper .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.5. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2: Analytical Framework (Conceptualising Energy Transition) ..................................................... 6 2.1. Energy transition characteristics ...................................................................................................... 6 2.2. Niche-regime theory as the analytical framework .......................................................................... 9 2.3. Energy transition as a socio-technical transformation .................................................................. 12 2.4. Dynamics and typology of transition .............................................................................................. 14 2.4.1. Reproduction and Reconfiguration: ........................................................................................ 15 2.4.2. Transformation Path (Top-Down Approach): ......................................................................... 16 2.4.3. De-alignment and Re-alignment path (Top-Down Approach) ................................................ 18 2.4.4. Transition (Bottom-Up Approach): .......................................................................................... 19 2.5. Author’s own interpretation of Socio-technical energy transition and introduction to Ethiopian context .................................................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 3: Country Profile ......................................................................................................................... 22 3.1. Ethiopia’s Country Information ...................................................................................................... 22 3.1.1. General Contrast ...................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.2. Geographical Contour .............................................................................................................. 23 3.1.3. Climate and Environment ........................................................................................................ 23 3.1.4. Economy ................................................................................................................................... 24 ii | P a g e 3.2. Ethiopia’s Energy Portfolio ............................................................................................................. 25 3.2.1. Primary Energy Sector .............................................................................................................. 28 3.2.2. Secondary Energy Sector ......................................................................................................... 29 3.2.2.1. Electricity ........................................................................................................................... 29 3.2.2.2. Bio-Fuel .............................................................................................................................. 33 3.2.2.3. Refined oil products .......................................................................................................... 34 3.2.3. Energy Demand Scenarios ....................................................................................................... 35 3.2.3.1. Reference Scenario ........................................................................................................... 37 3.2.3.2. Alternative Scenarios ........................................................................................................ 39 3.2.3.3. Comparison between Reference and Alternative Scenarios ........................................... 40 3.2.4. Ethiopian Energy Mix ............................................................................................................... 45 3.2.4.1. Hydro ................................................................................................................................. 46 3.2.4.2. Small-Scale Hydropower Plants ........................................................................................ 48 3.2.4.3. Wind .................................................................................................................................. 49 3.2.4.4. Solar ................................................................................................................................... 51 3.2.4.5. Geothermal ....................................................................................................................... 53 3.2.4.6. Biomass Cogeneration with Bagasse ................................................................................ 54 3.2.4.7. Biofuels .............................................................................................................................. 55 3.2.4.8. Biogas ................................................................................................................................ 56 3.2.4.9. Waste to Energy ................................................................................................................ 56 3.2.4.10. Fossil Fuels and Self-Contained Systems ........................................................................ 57 3.2.5. Energy Policies .......................................................................................................................... 58 3.2.5.1. Institutions ........................................................................................................................ 58 3.2.5.2. Direct and Cross-Cutting Issues of Energy Sector ............................................................ 59 3.2.5.3. Rationale and Objectives of Energy Policies .................................................................... 60 3.2.5.4. Country’s Energy Policies .................................................................................................. 60 Chapter 4: Dimensional Analysis with respect to the analytical framework ........................................... 64 4.1. Ethiopian Energy System transition ............................................................................................... 64 4.2. Assessment of Energy System transition through Multi-Level Perspective.................................. 64 4.2.1. Socio-technical Landscape in Ethiopian Energy Sector