The 2019 Presidential Election in Ukraine POLICY PAPER / SEPTEMBER 2018 AUTHOR: NATALIIA OLIIEVSKA The 2019 Presidential Election in Ukraine Policy Paper – Nataliia Oliievska, September 2018 The Ukrainian revolution of 2013-2014 • set up a system of visa-free regime or so-called Revolution of Dignity gave with the EU till the 1st January of Ukrainians the chance to choose the 2015; way in which their country should • sell chocolate company Roshen and develop. People needed a new person the entire business, except his TV who is not connected to the old system, Channel 5. a person who has not „dirty past“ in politics. Petro Poroshenko emerged on Moreover, in his official presidential Ukrainian political scene at the right campaign, Petro Poroshenko was moment. He started his presidential talking about fighting with a corruption, campaign with promises of a fresh start, creating of country’s prosperity and which Ukrainians were desperately in wealth, and about ensuring conditions need of. People were waiting for for innovations in economics and social someone who would end political chaos justice. The main motto of his election in the country. The year of 2018 is the campaign was „To Live in a New Way“. last year of Petro Poroshenko’s Now, his presidency is coming to its end presidential term, and thus, Ukrainian and several questions come up. How political channel NewsOne has was it for Ukrainians to live in the new compiled a list of the top seven way? How much has Ukraine changed president’s promises thanks to which he during past years and which promises was elected to the office. In May 2015, has Poroshenko managed to fulfill? during the presidential campaign, Petro Finally, does the current Ukrainian Poroshenko used to say that he would: President have a chance to be re-elected for the second term? • end so-called Anti-Terroristic operation (ATO)1 in a matter of Fulfilling of the President's hours; promises • stabilize dollar exchange rate to 10 hryvnias for one dollar; Analytical portal Slovo i Dilo stated that • increase a salary of ATO soldiers to by June 2018 Petro Poroshenko has 1000 hryvnia per day; fulfilled 41 % of total amount of his promises during the presidential • achieve energy independence of period. However, only one of 7 main Ukraine within next 2 years; above-mentioned promises were • prohibit using of offshore schemes; fulfilled by the President Poroshenko. 1 ATO was the operation which target illegal government for identifying the War in Donbass. activity of prorussian military units in Donbass. It was replaced by United Forces Operation on The term was used by media and the 30 April 2018. POLICY PAPER | September 2018 In his inaugural speech, almost four To sum it up, the visa-free regime can years ago, Petro Poroshenko devoted be considered as the only one promise, himself to the establishment of peace in which was fulfilled, even though it Donbass. The entire presidential happened with two year-long delay. campaign was based on the promise of ending the war as soon as possible. The role of the Ukrainian Nevertheless, the conflict is still alive President in the system of and causes casualties. The Office of the government United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 34,766 Under the Ukrainian Constitution, the conflict-related casualties in Ukraine president does not have considerable from April 14, 2014 to August 15, 2017. powers. The head of the state ensures This includes 10,225 people killed and a state souvereignty, national security 24,541 injured (UN 2017). and the rule of law. Also, the president represents the country and government There is also malversation of public as a whole in international affairs. money, which were allocated for the rehabilitation of ATO soldiers, by state Despite the president´s clearly limited officials (Malyk 2016). Moreover, the powers and responsibilities, Ukrainian dollar exchange rate has risen up to 28 people blamed Poroshenko for all hryvnias for 1 dollar. problems in the country. However, there is a logical explanation for this. What concerns energy independence, Most of the powerful persons in Ukraine has always been and remains Ukraine are connected to Petro a country dependent on external energy Poroshenko. For example, the Prime supplies. Everything is imported: Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr natural gas, petroleum products, Groisman is a member of Poroshenko’s nuclear fuel, and even coal. Equipment political party and he is publicly known for traditional and alternative energy is as “Poroshenko’s man.” Groysman’s also purchased abroad. In 2018, after family has been living in Vinnytsia for two years of break, Ukraine again would five generations, and Poroshenko has gain 4-5 billion cubic meters of Russia's been developing his business in this gas (TSN 2018). The President’s town since the early 90’s. Yuriy promise to prohibit using of offshore Lucenko, the General Prosecutor of schemes was thus not fulfilled. A wide Ukraine, is also a member of network of offshores of Ukrainian Poroshenko’s party. Moreover, these oligarchs still exists. Moreover, media two men are blaming for cronyism. blamed the Ukrainian President for Ukrainian media find out that Yuriy having his own offshore bank account. Lucenko, the chairman of Petro Poroshenko´s Block, and Mrs. Regarding to his last promise, Poroshenko are godparents of Poroshenko does not hide that he has a daughter of Ukrainian deputy Yuriy not sold Roshen yet. Stetc (Hyrak 2018). Stepan Kubiv, the Minister of Economic Development and POLICY PAPER | September 2018 Trade, is also a member of Petro place (in 2013, Ukraine was ranked on Poroshenko’s Block. the 87th place). To sum up, “Poroshenko’s men” govern the country and that’s why people are blaming the President for all problems. The fact that Groyisman was elected as a member of the Poroshenko’s party confirmed the above statement. Economic development of Ukraine since 2014 Official statistics show that Ukrainian economy has met a certain progress Graph 1. Source: Gallup 2017. from 2015. The level of corruption fell from 144th to 131st place in the Taking to account previous facts and Transparency International rating present statistics, Ukrainian people (Transparency International 2018). The most likely will not choose Poroshenko average salary increased from 150 again. His popularity fell to 5-9 % (with dollars to 320 according to Trading small differences in public polls), which Economics. GDP raised from 90 billion is a tremendous fall in comparison with to 119 billion dollars. Nevertheless, the the result of 2014 when Petro ecomonic situation of the country was Poroshenko won the election with the better before the beginning of the gain of 54,7 % votes. Such a significant conflict. In 2013, GDP was 179 billion decline of public support is not a big dollars and the average salary was 400 surprise since Poroshenko did not fulfill dollars (Trading Economics 2018). promises, which were promoted in his Since 2014, products have doubled in presidential campaign. Moreover, the its price, and some of them even tripled Ukrainian President used the post for (Finance.ua 2018). his own business purposes, nominate his colleagues and old partners for the Alongside with presenting the numbers, most influential posts in Ukraine. we need to mention an opinion of ordinary Ukrainians about the It is neccessary to mention that his development of their country who popularity has fallen down also in actually do not think that they are living consequence of some scandals, which better now than, for example, 4 years have appeared during past years. Petro ago. The World Happiness Index2 2018 Poroshenko spotted in Ukrainian news rate Ukraine in the list on the 138th for several times: anonymous vacation 2 The ranking includes objective indices – GDP (determined on the basis of readiness to make per capita and healthy life years – as well as the donations), social support (having someone to results of an opinion survey in which the rely on in times of trouble), and confidence participants had to answer a number of (presence or absence of corruption in questions about free choice, benevolence government and business). POLICY PAPER | September 2018 on the Maldives (when he did not article 356 of the Criminal Code, inform the country about his absence), Tymoshenko had abused her power. Saakashvili’s blame of corruption, so- The case of ex-prime minister is legal in called cassettes of Onyshchenko (on terms of Ukrainian law. This law was which Petro Poroshenko and Mykola changed in 2014, and after Yulia was Zlochevskyi are recorded while acquitted. But this criminal case was discussing a closing of criminal cases of not the first one. Actually, Tymoshenko the second mentioned), a big reveal of had been brought to the court before. In a secret Poroshenko’s offshore bank 1995, there was a criminal case for account etc. smuggling, which was closed after the new Penal Code entered into force in Candidates of the 2019 2001. Consequently, Tymoshenko was Presidential Election considered to be innocent. For the second time, Yulia Tymoshenko was According to public surveys, there are arrested on February 13, 2001 for an act four more people – Yulia Tymoshenko, of bribery and repeated bribery to Pavlo Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Anatoliy Lazarenko. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko Grytsenko, and Vadym Rabinovych – left pre-trial detention centre (SIZO) on (potentional rivals of Poroshenko) who the evening of March 27, after 43 days have quite a chance to win the election in jail. In brief, the law was changed in in March 2019. Also, there are two her favour for twice. other potential candidates who are not involved in Ukrainian politics yet – Due to some Ukrainian scholars and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, journalists, Tymoshenko is a kind of and singer Sviatoslav Vokarchuk.