Occupational Changes Occupational changes during the 20th century Professional, managerial, clerical, sales, and service workers (except private household service workers) grew from one-quarter to three-quarters of total employment between 1910 and 2000; laborers (except mine laborers), private household service workers, and farmers lost the most jobs over the period Ian D. Wyatt and ith occupation data from the 2000 Population Center.4 Every census taken in the 20th Daniel E. Hecker census now available, it is an appro- century used a different system to classify Wpriate time to analyze occupational occupations, so data between censuses are not employment trends over the 20th century. The necessarily comparable. IPUMS used the 1950 Index shift from a workforce composed mostly of of Occupations and Industries to impose an manual workers to one comprising mostly white- occupational scheme on data from each census. collar and service workers is generally known. Because of definitional changes and because some This article reveals just how radical that shift occupations in the 1950 index were components of has been. It also shows that many of the pro- broader occupations in other years, it was difficult jected employment changes over the 2004–14 to determine some decade-to-decade employment period1 are continuations of trends that began changes. That is, while the broad trends shown in the previous century. for larger occupation groups and many individual The article analyzes changes in occupa- occupations are believed to be relatively accurate, tional staffing patterns—occupations and some decade-to-decade changes may reflect data occupation groups as a percent of total em- comparability problems between surveys rather ployment in the economy—rather than numeric than indicating actual changes in employment.5 changes.2 This methodology indexes em- Nevertheless, data estimates are shown to the ployment growth to the average for all occu- closest thousand; readers should be aware that pations over the period. Occupations and actual employment may have been somewhat occupational groups growing faster than aver- different. age appear as an increasing proportion of total The 1950 census classified all workers into 269 employment, those growing as fast as average occupation categories, hereafter referred to as as a constant percent, and slower growing or occupations;6 the same census also gives em- declining ones as a declining percent.3 For clar- ployment estimates for each occupation. In its ity, however, numeric employment data also are effort to create a consistent time series, IPUMS Ian D. Wyatt is an economist in the given. reduced the number of occupations to 230. The Office of 1950 census arranged all occupations into 11 major Occupational Statistics and Data and methodology groups, as shown in chart 1, but, with a few excep- Employment tions, no subgroups—all occupations were just Projections, Bureau of 7 Labor Statistics; Daniel Occupational data presented in this article are listed alphabetically. To better analyze growth E. Hecker is an from decennial censuses, adjusted by the In- patterns within these 11 major groups, this article economist formerly in the same office. E-mail: tegrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) classifies the majority of occupations into sub- [email protected] from the University of Minnesota’s Minnesota groups, closely corresponding to 2000 Standard Monthly Labor Review March 2006 35 Occupational Changes Chart 1. Proportional employment in occupational categories, 1910 and 2000 Percent 0 5 10 15 20 25 Professional, technical, and kindred Service workers, except private household Clerical and kindred Managers, officials, and proprietors Sales workers 1910 2000 Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred Operatives and kindred Laborers, except farmers and mine Private household service workers Farmers Farm laborers 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percent 36 Monthly Labor Review March 2006 Occupational Classification (SOC) major or minor groups.8 group, while the two farm groups dropped from largest and Some 1950 occupation and group names are gender third largest, respectively, to the smallest, except for private specific or differ in other ways from those in current use, and household workers.9 their coverage of occupations also may differ. In addition, in Five of the major occupation groups increased as a share 1950, some occupations were classified into major groups of the total, while six declined. All of the ones that declined, different from those they were classified into in 2000. For except for private household workers, consist of occupations example, cashiers, judged a sales occupation in 2000, consti- that produce, repair, or transport goods and are concentrated tuted a clerical occupation in 1950, and the category of farm- in the agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, and ers and farm managers, which formed a minor occupation transportation industries. The five that increased are the so- group within management occupations in the 2000 census, called white-collar occupations, plus service workers, except was one of the 11 major occupation groups in the 1950 classi- private household. The four major groups that are white- fication. Therefore, the 2000 employment levels shown in this collar occupations include mostly occupations having to do article for certain occupations or occupation groups may not with information, ideas, or people (many in the service group match the employment levels listed in the 2000 census for also work with people); are more concentrated in services- those same occupations or occupation groups. producing industries; and, at least for professional and The 1900 and 1930 data sets were unavailable from IPUMS managerial occupations, have higher-than-average education at the time the research that led to this article was being requirements. In aggregate, the five groups that increased carried out. Therefore, the time series begins with 1910 and went from 24 percent to 75 percent of total employment, while covers eight additional data points: the year 1920 and the the six groups that declined went from 76 percent to 25 years 1940 through 2000. An employment status filter was percent over the 90-year period.10 applied to the 1940–2000 samples, eliminating those who were The analysis that follows presents charts and discusses not actively employed. During that period, the census asked decade-by-decade trends for these people what the last occupation they held was if it was within the previous 5 or 10 years (depending upon which • the aforementioned 11 major occupation groups; census year was in question). Including those employed • selected occupation subgroups, generally within the previous 5 or 10 years would create some distor- corresponding to major or minor groups in the 2000 tions, and the data obtained would not match other publicly SOC system; and available data. By contrast, no filter was applied to the 1910 • individual occupations that are large, that help or 1920 data. In both of these censuses, the question on explain group trends, or that run counter to group occupation was restricted to those who were either employed trends. or actively looking for work. Those who were retired or out of the labor force for any other reason were not included. When Occupations and occupation groups are discussed in the the employment filter was applied to the 1910 sample, certain order of their staffing pattern changes, from the largest in- occupations nearly disappeared. Applying an employment crease to the largest decrease. Those which increased as a filter to the 1920 survey was not possible, because that census proportion of the total tend to be concentrated in industries did not ask any question about the respondent’s employment that grew more rapidly than average or that were a growing status. Therefore, the 1910 and 1920 data include some proportion of employment in their industries. For example, persons not employed in those years. Altogether, the census attendants in hospitals and in medical and dental offices grew data show that employment increased 2.3 times over the 9 particularly fast, because they were employed in rapidly decades, from 39.2 million to 129.7 million. growing health services industries and, over the century, they assumed many routine duties formerly performed by physi- Occupation categories cians, nurses, and other healthcare workers. In contrast, rail- road brakemen and switchmen declined very sharply, both Occupational staffing patterns changed radically over the because demand for railroad services grew much more slowly 1910–2000 period in response to changes in the mix of goods than average and because their work became increasingly and services produced and the methods used to produce mechanized. them. Of the 11 major occupation groups listed in the 1950 Changes in the mix of goods and services produced, in census, professional, technical, and kindred workers had the technology, and in business practices, as well as broad largest percent (and numeric) increase, while the farmer and economic and social trends, are discussed to the extent that farm laborer groups had the largest percent (and numeric) they explain changes in occupational staffing patterns. For decreases. (See chart 1.) Professional, technical, and kindred example, the mechanization of the production of goods and workers rose from ninth largest to the largest occupation services and the development of technology are discussed in Monthly Labor Review March 2006 37 Occupational Changes the sections on production operatives and engineers, respectively; Production and other craftsmen, laborers, mine operatives, the spread of motor vehicle use is discussed in the context of road and farmers and farm managers all rose from 1910 to 1920, but vehicle operators, mechanics and repairers, and police; and the then declined for the rest of the century, some sharply. Con- growth of large bureaucratic organizations is examined in the struction workers declined slowly throughout the period. discussion of accountants, clerical workers, and managers. Farm laborers and foremen, as well as private household Some occupation groups exhibited sharp, steady growth as workers, dropped sharply after 1910.