MASTER THESIS - JAN KOWALCZYK TRACING EMERGING IRREVERSIBILITIES AND DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS IN THE FIELD OF NANOSENSOR TECHNOLOGIES f by Sebastian Osterfeld September 2013 Science and Innovation Management Master Thesis SIM (45 ECTS) Student: Jan Kowalczyk 3287831 [email protected] Ina Boudier Bakkerlaan 143-3 3582 XW Utrecht Supervisors: Prof. dr. ir. Harro van Lente Colette Bos, PhD Candidate 2nd Reader: Dr. ir. Alexander Peine Abstract Nanosensor technologies constitute a new emerging field of science and technology with tremendous innovation potential. However, as the technology is still in its infancy many uncertainties and unknowns exist. Nonetheless, due to high expectations and promises, the technology gained a lot of attention from governments, companies and universities as they see potential to benefit from the development and commercialization of such technologies. With their ongoing activities and interaction those actors shape the dynamics and characteristics of the field. Understanding these dynamics is important for actors attempting to benefit from the development. A key concept in this study - which contribute to the understanding of emerging technology dynamics - are emerging irreversibilities. Emerging irreversibilities are “patterns that enable certain actions and interactions (make it easier) and constrain others (make it more difficult to do something else)” (Van Merkerk & Robinson, 2006) and thus influence the development paths a technology follows. The aim of this thesis is to study and analyze the processes and mechanisms that influence the development of emerging technologies and explore how irreversibilities shape the development of nanosensor technologies. This research effort presents a new methodology to map the development of new emerging fields and irreversibilities. For the three communities (science, industry and government), a database of papers, patents and projects was constructed. Within this database statements were selected pertaining to nanosensor development. We focused on general nanosensor development, as well as on developments in relation to the application areas food, environmental analysis and medicine. Based on these statements a reconstruction of the developments in the field was made. Two dominant development paths were identified: path A related to electrochemical sensors and path B related to optical nanosensors. Furthermore, the developments in relation to the application areas are described. Based on these narratives the emerging irreversibilities were derived and analyzed. Our findings from this study can contribute to the development of nanosensor technologies as those wishing to coordinate the development can now look to the future in a more informed way. Importantly, we have developed new methods for tracing emerging irreversibilities, which can be seen as an addition to existing mapping tools of emerging technologies. Keywords: Nanotechnology; Nanosensors; New & Emerging S&T; Development Pathways; Emerging Irreversibilities; Visions & Expectations; Statement Analysis. 2 Acknowledgements I would like to take this opportunity to thank everybody who helped me to get through the process of writing and completing my master thesis. First of all, I would like to thank Prof. Harro van Lente, my supervisor, for his guidance, advice, and especially ideas and feedback throughout this project. Furthermore, I would like to thank Colette Bos, who was actively involved in the supervision of this project, for her assistance and feedback on my work. Also I would like to thank Alexander Peine for being my second reader. Finally, I would like to thank my friends, family and fellow students for their support and encouragement. I hope you will enjoy reading this work! 3 Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Problem area ................................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Research question ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Relevance ...................................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Outline........................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Theory ................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Evolutionary Economics .............................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Path Dependency, Path Creation & Emerging Irreversibilities ................................................... 10 2.3 Sociology of Expectations ........................................................................................................... 12 2.4 A Conceptual Model.................................................................................................................... 13 3. Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 13 3.1 Reliability and validity ................................................................................................................. 17 4. Nanosensor Technologies ................................................................................................................... 18 4.1 The role of nanotechnology in sensor development .................................................................. 20 4.2 Categorization of nanosensors ................................................................................................... 21 4.3 Biosensors ................................................................................................................................... 24 5. Results ................................................................................................................................................. 25 5.1 Representation of the data ......................................................................................................... 25 5.2 Interpretation of the data ........................................................................................................... 29 5.3 Subject tree ................................................................................................................................. 32 5.4 Evolution of Subjects over time .................................................................................................. 35 6. Reconstruction Development Paths ................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Path A : Electrochemical Nanosensors ....................................................................................... 37 6.2 Path B: Optical Nanosensors ....................................................................................................... 51 7. Application domains ........................................................................................................................... 62 7.1 Food ............................................................................................................................................ 62 7.2 Environmental Analysis ............................................................................................................... 68 7.3 Medical Applications ................................................................................................................... 72 8. Analysis Emerging Irreversibilities ...................................................................................................... 77 8.1 Tracing Emerging Irreversibilities ................................................................................................ 77 8.2 Relation and strength of the Emerging Irreversibilities .............................................................. 85 9. Conclusion & Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 87 10. References .......................................................................................................................................... 94 11. Appendices ........................................................................................................................................ 100 11.1 Appendix A: Statement Modalities ........................................................................................... 100 11.2 Appendix B: Coding Examples ................................................................................................... 101 11.3 Appendix C: Database ............................................................................................................... 102 4 1. Introduction Throughout history, and especially after the industrial revolution, new fields of science & technology (S&T) have been emerging and with