BI Norwegian Business School - campus Oslo GRA 19502 Master Thesis Component of continuous assessment: Thesis Master of Science Final master thesis – Counts 80% of total grade The effect of internet usage on voter turnout in the European Union Navn: Andreas Boug Start: 02.03.2018 09.00 Finish: 03.09.2018 12.00 GRA 19502 0940769 Abstract This master thesis investigates the effect of internet usage on voter turnout in the European Union over the sample period from 1990 to 2016. The methodology applies is both ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation and the fixed effect model approach, in which the dependent variable is voter turnout and the independent variable is the internet usage. Both socioeconomic variables such as population, gender (female) and age, in addition to macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita and the unemployment rate are used as a control variable in the regressions. The main findings suggest a positive and statistically significant effect of internet usage on voter turnout in the European Union. Moreover, the findings from the OLS estimation and the fixed effects models only differ slightly, which makes the simultaneity problem less likely in the empirical analysis. The sensitivity analysis conducted in this thesis examine the robustness of the main findings by firstly excluding the female variable as a control variable and secondly by excluding Belgium and Luxembourg from the data set due to compulsory voting in these countries. In both cases, the estimated effect of internet usage on the voter turnout remains positive and huge in magnitude and statistically significant at conventional levels. That said, all findings reported in this thesis should be considered with some caution, as more comprehensive sensitivity analysis with respect to control variables not used in the empirical analysis may be conducted. Such comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been beyond the scope of this thesis and is left for future research. Acknowledgements This master thesis represents the last work of my degree in Master of Science in Business at BI Norwegian Business School. I have been challenged in many different ways during the entire process of writing this thesis, which has provided me with valuable knowledge and experience. The thesis is written in cooperation with Per Botolf Maurseth. I would like to express my gratitude to him for valuable discussions and comments during the entire process. I would also give a special thanks to my good friends David Hammerstad and Halvor Gangnes, and my uncle Pål Boug for grateful feedbacks and discussions. Page i GRA 19502 0940769 Contents 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Motivation of the study .................................................................................. 5 1.2 Hypothesis and empirical evidence .................................................................. 6 1.3 Main findings ............................................................................................... 6 1.4 Outline of the study ....................................................................................... 7 2.0 Institutional Setting ........................................................................................... 7 2.1 The Broadband Internet in the European Union ................................................. 7 2.2 The election systems in the European member states ....................................... 10 2.3 Internet use and election - survey .................................................................. 13 2.4 Literature Review ........................................................................................ 14 3.0 Data .............................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Data description .......................................................................................... 18 3.2 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................... 19 3.2.1 Dependent variable ................................................................................ 20 3.2.2 Independent variable ............................................................................. 20 3.2.3 Control variables ................................................................................... 21 4.0 Identification and empirical specifications ......................................................... 23 4.1 Fixed effect model ....................................................................................... 23 5.0 Results and discussion ..................................................................................... 25 5.1 The effect of internet usage on voter turnout ................................................... 25 5.2 Sensitivity analysis ...................................................................................... 29 6.0 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 33 7.0 References ..................................................................................................... 35 8.0 Appendix ....................................................................................................... 39 Appendix A ..................................................................................................... 39 Appendix B – Election systems in the European Union ......................................... 40 B.1 Austria ................................................................................................... 40 B.2 Belgium ................................................................................................. 41 B.3 Bulgaria ................................................................................................. 43 B.4 Croatia ................................................................................................... 44 B.5 Cyprus ................................................................................................... 45 B.6 Czech Republic ....................................................................................... 46 B.7 Denmark ................................................................................................ 47 B.8 Estonia ................................................................................................... 48 B.9 Finland .................................................................................................. 50 B.10 France .................................................................................................. 51 Page ii GRA 19502 0940769 B.11 Germany .............................................................................................. 52 B.12 Greece ................................................................................................. 54 B.13 Hungary ............................................................................................... 55 B.14 Ireland ................................................................................................. 56 B.15 Italy ..................................................................................................... 58 B.16 Latvia .................................................................................................. 59 B.17 Lithuania .............................................................................................. 60 B.18 Luxembourg ......................................................................................... 61 B.19 Malta ................................................................................................... 62 B.20 Netherlands .......................................................................................... 63 B.21 Poland .................................................................................................. 64 B.22 Portugal ............................................................................................... 65 B.23 Romania ............................................................................................... 66 B.24 Slovakia ............................................................................................... 67 B.25 Slovenia ............................................................................................... 69 B.26 Spain ................................................................................................... 70 B.27 Sweden ................................................................................................ 71 B.28 United Kingdom .................................................................................... 72 Appendix C – Preliminary thesis report ............................................................... 74 Page iii GRA 19502 0940769 1.0 Introduction The importance of political participation in the electoral processes is essential for the strength of the European democracies. Electoral exclusion from the population or its subgroups has significant and wide-ranging negative consequences for the legitimacy of the democracies (Weiler, 2013). Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers to understand citizens’ behaviour and potential drivers of political participation. A great number of studies have uncovered that there are several factors that affect voter turnout. These factors are often referred to as; socio- economic, political, institutional and individual factors (IDEA; Solijonov, 2016) Since the beginning of the 20th century, there has been