Gulf States Newsletter PEOPLE, POLITICS & RESOURCES IN THE GULF REGION www.gsn-online.com Volume 37 • Issue 959 • 28 November 2013 Iran and P5+1 sign breakthrough nuclear deal After days of intense negotiations, Iran and the six world powers signed a historic interim agreement aimed at resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. But the deal with Shiite Iran will cause alarm in the Arab Gulf states, especially in Saudi Arabia, which has felt excluded from a process it fears could destabilise the region n the darkest hours of Sunday, 24 November, after four days For the Arab Gulf states, the historic agreement was not a of intense negotiations, the announcement finally came. “We moment for joy. Saudi Arabia, in particular, will have watched the Ihave reached an agreement,” Iranian foreign minister dénouement of months of diplomatic activity with some Mohammad Javad Zarif posted on Twitter at 2:03am, and other trepidation – not only about the rising power of its enemy Iran, foreign ministers, emerging from the conference room in a but also about its own waning influence. Riyadh feels very Geneva hotel where the deal was signed, confirmed. “Now the ignored, and fears being abandoned by long-time ally really hard part begins,” US secretary of state John Kerry told Washington, whose priorities have diverged. reporters. “We know this.” On an official level, the six states of the Gulf Co-operation The interim agreement between Iran and the world powers of Council (GCC) welcomed the deal. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom the UAE all put out statements via their official news agencies on and the United States, shepherded by European Union foreign the day it was signed; all used the word “welcomed”, and policy chief Catherine Ashton) is intended to last six months, described the agreement as a step towards safeguarding stability while the two sides seek a more permanent solution to the issue in the region. Saudi Arabia and Oman put out statements a day of Iran’s nuclear programme. In brief, the deal outlines around later. Saudi Arabia’s, buried in a news release about Crown $7bn worth of sanctions relief for Iran, in return for curbs on Prince Salman chairing a cabinet session at the Al-Yamamah nuclear activities ( see box, page 3 ). While there are many potential Palace, said the government had “viewed carefully” the spoilers in the weeks and months ahead, there is a realistic hope of agreement, and saw it as a “primary step towards a comprehensive a lasting compromise now that both sides have proven themselves able to move beyond posturing, and to negotiate hard. CONTINUED ON PAGE 3 Chinese plans Al-Awda Jordan set to take Saudi seat at UNSC China wants to inject more Islamist cleric Salman Al-Awda Saudi Arabia’s ally Jordan looks It may have taken a stand against energy into its relationship was known in the 1990s for his increasingly likely to take the seat the UNSC but, on 12 November, with the states of the GCC, radicalism, and spent several on the United Nations Security Saudi Arabia happily took up a Council (UNSC) that Riyadh and to mend the political rift years in jail. Since his release, place on the UN Human Rights dramatically rejected ( GSN with Saudi Arabia caused by he has taken a more moderate Council, standing unopposed after 957/6 ). On 18 November, the Jordan – in what looked like a Syria. With help from line, but in the aftermath of the Jordanian foreign ministry said it Bahrain’s King Hamad, Beijing Arab Spring and the overthrow swap – pulled out of that race. had presented an “official Elected alongside Saudi Arabia in is seeking to arrange the of Mohammed Morsi, his request” to UN chief Ban Ki-moon the Asia Pacific zone were China, first China-GCC Strategic criticism of the government and, on 21 November, the UN said Vietnam and the Maldives. Dialogue in two years, and to has picked up pace. Amassing the General Assembly would vote further develop business and huge followings on social on 6 December on whether to Human rights groups were quick energy exchange. China is media, and through his books, accept it. No other country has to condemn Saudi Arabia’s already Saudi Arabia’s largest TV appearances and other said it will stand. admittance to the council, on trading partner; the two media, Al-Awda has called for Jordan has twice been a non- which it previously served in nations also share a number of reform, praising the revolts permanent member of the UNSC, 2006-09 and 2009-12. The UAE strategic interests, and a world elsewhere in the region and in 1965-6 and 1982-3. Saudi is also on the council, having view divergent from the West’s warning of growing anger on Arabia, which has called for been elected in November 2012 democratic consensus. the Saudi street. comprehensive reform of the (GSN 936/5 ). Qatar’s term ends in council, has never been elected. 2013. —S EE PAGE 4 —S EE PAGE 8 ISSN 0953-5411 Cross-border Information Contents POLITICS IRAN: Breakthrough nuclear deal 1 SAUDI ARABIA: Jordan set to take Riyadh’s seat on UNSC 1 GCC: China’s leaders look to consolidate connection 4 G S N SAUDI ARABIA/BAHRAIN: FAC report details 6 Gulf St ates Newsletter SAUDI ARABIA: Defence co-operation defines UK relations 7 SAUDI ARABIA: The return of Al-Awda? 8 Gulf States Newsletter Volume 37 • Issue 959 • 28 November 2013 SAUDI ARABIA: Sheikh Salman Al-Awda’s open letter 9 GCC: UK visa waiver for four states 10 Sales and Service GCC: Tourists spend big in UK 10 Direct: +44 (0) 1424 721 667 BAHRAIN: Frustration grows on all sides 11 Fax: +44 (0) 1424 721 721 NEWS IN BRIEF: Kuwait, Iraq, UAE 11 Email: [email protected] Director Nick Carn ROYALS WATCH [email protected] OMAN: Role in Iran, decrees 12 Editor QATAR: Emir Sheikh Tamim, Amna Bint Abdelaziz 12 Fiona O’Brien ( fi[email protected] ) SAUDI ARABIA: Alwaleed Bin Talal, Mohammed Bin Nawaf 12 News editor Eleanor Gillespie ( [email protected] ) DEFENCE AND SECURITY Contributors YEMEN: Security vacuum expands 13 Gazwan Aldafai, Melle Lyklema, Abdulla AlMannai Cartographer ENERGY AND INDUSTRY David Burles OMAN: PDO corruption trial adjourned 13 Production Shirley Giles FINANCE Editorial director Jon Marks ( [email protected] ) UAE: Airlines break spending records 14 Publications director QATAR: Airline to launch Saudi service 14 Nick Carn ( [email protected] ) DIARY EVENTS: What’s on around the region 15 RISK MANAGEMENT REPORT Gulf States Newsletter Published fortnightly since 1974 QATAR: A ò1 – World Cup controversy continues 16 PO Box 124, Hastings, East Sussex TN34 1WP, UK SAUDI ARABIA: C2 – Riyadh feeling sidelined 17 Tel: +44 (0) 1424 721 667 Fax: +44 (0) 1424 721 721 GSN VIEW Email: [email protected] UAE: UK’s PM back on charm offensive 18 Cross-border Information Registered office: 19 Wellington Square, Hastings, East Sussex TN34 1PB, United Kingdom Directors: JJ Marks, JM Ford, NJ Carn, JD Hamilton, E Gillespie 2013 Cross-border Information . 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Contact [email protected] for details of multi-user subscriptions. 2 GULF STATES NEWSLETTER • VOLUME 37 • ISSUE 959 • 28 NOVEMBER 2013 Politics Iran and P5 +1 sign breakthrough deal The agreement CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 After four days of intense negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 – China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States solution to the Iran nuclear programme”, and towards (also known as the E3+3) – arrived at an interim agreement on 24 guaranteeing the right for all countries in the region to November aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear programme. peacefully use nuclear energy. The deal will last six months. During that time, presuming both sides The animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not only follow through on their promises, negotiations will continue to find a entrenched, it is the undercurrent that shapes most of today’s long-term, comprehensive solution. In brief, Iran agreed to limit its regional conflicts. Riyadh’s visceral mistrust of Tehran prompted nuclear programme and increase transparency, while in return, the an outpouring of alarm on social media, and in Saudi editorials. P5+1 said it would provide limited, targeted sanctions relief. The daily Okaz newspaper, under a headline that read ‘The According to the US Department of State, the details of the deal are: Catastrophe’, said “The future is black. We, Arabs, stand looking Iran has committed to: on but resigned… We fight.” Newspaper cartoons ridiculed the US for being outplayed by wily Iran. • Halt all enrichment above 5%; Saudis fear an unleashed Tehran will wreak havoc throughout • Neutralise its stockpile of near 20% uranium; the wider Middle East, feeding extant conflicts and firing up • Halt progress on its enrichment capacity; those which burn beneath the surface, such as that in Saudi • Halt progress on the growth of its 3.5% stockpile; Arabia’s Shiite East.