The Force of Face-to-Face Diplomacy in International Politics Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Marcus Holmes, M.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University June 2011 Dissertation Committee: Alexander Wendt, Advisor Richard Herrmann Jennifer Mitzen Copyright by Marcus Holmes 2011 Abstract The problem of intentions is central to all major paradigms of international relations theory. Each paradigm has offered mechanisms by which intentions can be approximated, though not known. These mechanisms range from costly signaling in rationalism, iterative interaction in institutional liberalism, to reflected appraisals and identity in constructivism. Each of these perspectives involves agents observing the external behavior of actors and creating a theory about that behavior based on folk psychology reasoning. In this dissertation I present an alternate mechanism for understanding intentions that relies on simulating the intentions of others rather than theorizing about them. I argue that through face-to-face interaction actors are able to simulate the intentions of others, creating a one-to-one physical correspondence in the brain between individuals. This simulation allows actors to understand and replicate the intentions of others from an internal first-person perspective rather than an external third-person perspective. I investigate the implications of this finding for international relations theory, face-to-face diplomacy, and illustrate its effects empirically in diplomatic history. ii Dedication Dedicated to Lindsay. iii Acknowledgments While writing a dissertation may often seem like an independent and solo activity, the reality is that one depends greatly on a support system in order to undertake such a large effort. This dissertation could never have been completed without the help of many colleagues and friends along the way. In particular, I would like to thank Bentley Allan, Gary Berntson, Zoltan Buzas, Austin Carson, Erin Graham, Ted Hopf, Jason Keiber, Joshua Kertzer, Maria Konnikova, Kathleen McGraw, Fernando Nunez Mietz, Dale D. Murphy, Dan Nexon, John Oates, Xiaoyu Pu, Darren Schreiber, Randall Schweller, J.P. Singh, Alex Thompson, and Dave Traven. I would also like to thank participants of the Research in International Politics (RIP) workshop at Ohio State and European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) Joint Sessions conference. In particular, thanks to Kathleen Powers and Ingvild Bode for serving as discussants for my presentations. Finally, special thanks to members of the 2008-2009 PS 846 seminar, run by Randy, where many of the ideas in this dissertation germinated. I was very fortunate to have an outstanding dissertation committee. Jennifer Mitzen encouraged me early on to tackle difficult questions and provided enormous support and encouragement through many drafts of outlines and chapters. Rick Herrmann provided close, detailed analysis of my writing and provided insights I could not have received elsewhere. Finally, through discussions that began years ago, Alex iv Wendt helped to nurture my thinking and writing throughout my time at Ohio State. He has been extremely generous with his time and support and I am certain the dissertation would not be a fraction of what it is without his intellectual support and creativity. Finally, I would like to thank my family. My parents, Colleen and Gregory Holmes, are a constant source of support. My brother, Garrett Holmes, helped me think through tricky problems and sources of intellectual frustration along the way. Most of all, I want to thank my wife Lindsay who was an incredibly important part of my success with this dissertation. Without her support and sacrifices this dissertation could not have been written. v Vita 2002………………………………B.A. Digital Humanities, University of Virginia 2006………....................................M.A. Communication, Culture & Technology, Georgetown University 2006 to present…………………...Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University Publications 2011. ―Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed: Rerepresentations of Anarchy in IR Theory.‖ International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 11(2). 2009. ―Just How Much Does That Cost, Anyway? An Analysis of the Financial Costs and Benefits of the ‗No-Fly‘ List.‖ Homeland Security Affairs 5(1). 2007. ―Culture Without the State? Reinvigorating Ukrainian Culture with Diasporic Efforts,‖ Review of Policy Research 24(2): 133-154. Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science vi Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................ ii Dedication ....................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................... iv Vita .................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................... x List of Figures ................................................................................................................. xi Chapter 1 – The Puzzle of Face-to-Face Interaction ................................................... 1 Introduction: Divergent Outcomes in Personal Diplomacy .................................... 1 Face-to-Face Findings in Other Disciplines .............................................................. 8 The Difficulty of Intentions: A Philosophical Problem of Human Interaction ... 13 The Political Problem ............................................................................................. 13 The Philosophical Problem ..................................................................................... 15 Understanding Intentions: The Role of Mirroring ................................................ 20 A Cognitive Approach to Mind-Reading: ―Theory-Theory‖ .................................. 20 An Alternative Explanation: ―Simulation Theory‖ ................................................. 24 Using Neuroscience to Understand Intention-Reading: Mirror Neurons ........... 26 Evaluating the Force of Face-to-Face Interactions in International Politics ...... 32 Face-to-Face Hypotheses ........................................................................................ 32 Methodology Philosophy ........................................................................................ 39 Case Study Selection Criteria ................................................................................. 39 Elite Interviews ....................................................................................................... 41 Methodological Concerns: Endogeneity and Confounds ...................................... 42 Chapter 2 - Social Neuroscientific Approaches to International Relations............. 44 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 44 Two Models of Incorporation ................................................................................. 52 The Epistemology of Top Down and Bottom Up ................................................... 57 Explaining ............................................................................................................... 57 Understanding ......................................................................................................... 62 Social Neuroscience: What Does it Attempt to Do? ............................................... 67 The Levels of Analysis Problem in Social Behavior .............................................. 70 Principles of Determinism of Social Behavior in Neuroscience ............................ 73 Principles of Determinism of Social Behavior in IR .............................................. 79 Bringing it Together: What Does a SN-Informed IR Look Like?........................ 90 vii A New Materialism ................................................................................................. 93 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 100 Chapter 3 - The Force of Face-to-Face Diplomacy at the End of the Cold War .. 103 Introduction and Background to the Case ........................................................... 103 The Lead-up to ―Two Plus Four‖: Many Obstacles.............................................. 105 Reaching Agreement: The Force of Face-to-Face ................................................ 110 Strategies ............................................................................................................... 110 Concerted Efforts at Personal Diplomacy............................................................. 113 Face-to-face Interaction: Providing Clues Beyond Rhetoric ................................ 118 Bringing the Case Together: Lessons Learned .................................................... 126 Alternate Explanations Correlated with Face-to-Face ........................................ 131 Public vs. Private Interactions ............................................................................... 134 The Better Argument and Rhetoric ......................................................................