Cyberspace and National Security Selected Articles III Edited by Gabi Siboni המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITYc STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Cyberspace and National Security Selected Articles III Edited by Gabi Siboni THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Institute for National Security Studies THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating Printing: Elinir the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest (a public benefit company) academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national 40 Haim Levanon Street security as well as Middle East regional and international POB 39950 security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to Ramat Aviv the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues Tel Aviv 6997556 that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. Tel. +972-3-640-0400 INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and Fax. +972-3-744-7590 policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and E-mail: [email protected] the general public. http://www.inss.org.il INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. © All rights reserved. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ April 2015 alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organization and ISBN: 978-965-7425-76-3 individuals that support its research. Contents Foreword | 5 The Islamic State’s Strategy in Cyberspace | 7 Gabi Siboni, Daniel Cohen, Tal Koren Commercial and Industrial Cyber Espionage in Israel | 25 Shahar Argaman and Gabi Siboni A Multidisciplinary Analysis of Cyber Information Sharing | 41 Aviram Zrahia Developments in Iranian Cyber Warfare 2013-2014 | 61 Gabi Siboni and Sami Kronenfeld Are Cyber Weapons Effective Military Tools? |83 Emilio Iasiello The Effect of Cyberwar Technologies on Force Buildup: The Israeli Case | 101 Gil Baram Cyber Weapons and International Stability: New Destabilization Threats Require New Security Doctrines | 123 Guy-Philippe Goldstein Cyber Defense from “Reduction in Asymmetrical Information” Strategies | 143 Guy-Philippe Goldstein Foreword Israel’s rapid development as a leader in cyberspace places it in a unique position to advance cyberspace research in Israel in general and at the Institute for National Security Studies in particular. In order to expand research and the scope of cyberspace activity, and given the fact that cyberspace does not recognize national or institutional boundaries and borders, we at the INSS have decided to extend the program and hold the annual cyberspace security conference in the United States. The Defensive Cyberspace Operations & Intelligence (DCOI) conference highlights core issues of security and defense in cyberspace and its related intelligence aspects. The conference, held this year in Washington D.C., is the product of collaboration between several institutions in Israel, the United States, and other countries. The conference’s focus on defensive operations and intelligence allows the INSS to showcase its own activity in this field and complement the range of operations carried out in Israel and around the world. The objectives of this year’s conference are manifold: developing the discourse of defense in cyberspace, the corporate and financial fields as well as in the field of critical infrastructures; enhancing cooperation among government bodies and institutions working in the field of cyberspace in Israel and the United States; exposing the Israeli cyberspace and technology market to foreign technological companies seeking to develop business with Israel and/or seeking to expose Israeli capabilities and technologies abroad; enhancing international cyberspace cooperation with friendly nations, etc. As is our custom every year, we offer those interested in cyberspace this unique publication, which brings together some of the products of cyberspace research and essays published by the INSS Cyber Security Program. The essays in this journal have been published in Military and Strategic Affairs and represent the efforts of INSS researchers and outside researchers working in tandem with its cyberspace program. Gabi Siboni Editor 5 The Islamic State’s Strategy in Cyberspace Gabi Siboni, Daniel Cohen, Tal Koren The success of the Islamic State (henceforth: ISIS) includes the integration of interrelated elements in a way that helps the organization consolidate its control of extensive regions, serve as the current spearhead in the global Jihad effort, and threaten the world with terrorist attacks carried out by its agents holding citizenship in a Western country. These agents are liable to return to their homeland and along with “lone wolves” they are liable to carry out terrorist attacks against targets in the West. The aim of this article is to examine ISIS’s model, as it is an organization that has successfully conquered many geographic areas while attracting public attention on an unprecedented global scale. The article will attempt to assess the organization’s unique strategy, which combines two key interrelated elements: extensive use of the social media on the one hand and extreme and savage cruelty on the other. Keywords: Islamic state, ISIS, social media, Iraq, Syria, terrorism Introduction In May 2004, an Islamic website published a video clip showing the execution of Nick Berg, a U.S. citizen, in Baghdad. The clip showed Berg in an orange prisoner’s uniform (the same worn by prisoners at Guantanamo Prison), beheaded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Ten years later, this video assumed horrifying historical significance with the publication of a video clip showing the beheading of American James Foley by agents of ISIS, carrying on the actions of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Dr. Gabi Siboni is a senior research fellow and the head of the INSS Cyber Security Program. Dr. Tal Korn is a research fellow in the Cyber Security Program. Daniel Cohen is a Research Fellow and coordinator of the Cyber Security Program. This article was first published in Military and Strategic Affairs 7, no. 1 (2015). 7 GABI SIBONI, DANIEL COHEN, TAL KOREN | THE ISLAMIC State’S STRategY IN CYBERspace The main difference between the two video clips is that the man who beheaded Foley spoke fluent English, and the professionally edited clip was spread virally throughout the entire world. Viewers in Western countries experienced a feeling of horror at the sight of a prisoner being led to the slaughter, not only because the victim seemed like their next-door neighbor, but because the slaughterer also represented the image of a neighbor. ISIS uses the global village of the information era, in which the boundaries between reality and imagination have been blurred using technological means available to everyone, in its call to its supporters in the West to make the hegira (immigration to the Islamic state) or join the jihad - “pack your suitcases or prepare explosive devices.” Psychological warfare in the service of terrorist organizations is not a new phenomenon. Carlos Marighella, one of the fathers of modern revolutionary terrorism, published The Mini-Manual of the Urban Guerilla in the 1960s, in which he referred to a war of “nerves” and psychological warfare. He asserted that governments will always be in a position of inferiority in combating psychological warfare used by a terrorist organization, as a result of the many resources used in counter efforts and censorship. According to Marighella, this investment is doomed to fail. In the digital and new media era, the challenges and threats have changed as a result of the new spheres in which a terrorist organization can operate to promote its political objectives. ISIS operates on a large scale in virtual space by using new media platforms that make censorship difficult. The position of inferiority in defending against this phenomenon is therefore significant, and requires observation and a solution to this threat that makes use of up-to-date tools. The wave of spontaneous terrorist attacks (“lone wolves”) in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe, and Israel highlights the emerging symbiotic connection between ISIS’s recruitment calls, propaganda, and terrorism against Western civilians and the various communications platforms made possible by virtual space. It incorporates terrorism executed by veterans who fought within ISIS ranks in Syria and Iraq and returned to the west, such as the murder of Israeli couple Mira and Emanuel Riva at the Jewish Museum in Brussels in May 2014 by Mehdi Nemmouche, a French citizen of Algerian origin who returned to Europe after fighting with jihad forces in Syria. These local unorganized terrorist actions, carried out “under the influence of ISIS” and inspired by it, include attacks by shooting 8 GABI SIBONI, DANIEL COHEN, TAL KOREN | THE ISLAMIC State’S STRategY IN CYBERspace and running over pedestrians in Canada, and attempted beheadings in Australia and the U.S. ISIS employs public relations, recruitment,