FRAN Quarterly Issue 2 • April–June 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FRAN Quarterly Issue 2 • April–June 2012 1 of 70 Frontex official publications fall into four main categories: risk analysis, training, operations and research, each marked with a distinct graphic identifier. FRAN Quarterlies and other risk analysis publications bear a triangular symbol formed by an arrow drawing a triangle, with a dot at the centre. Metaphorically, the arrow represents the cyclical nature of risk analysis processes and its orientation towards an appropriate operational response. The triangle is a symbol of ideal proportions and knowledge, reflecting the pursuit of factual exactness, truth and exhaustive analysis. The dot at the centre represents the intelligence factor and the focal point where information from diverse sources converges to be processed, systematised and shared as analytical products. Thus, Frontex risk analysis is meant to be at the centre and to form a reliable basis for its operational activities. European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union Rondo ONZ 1 00-124 Warsaw, Poland T +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01 [email protected] www.frontex.europa.eu Warsaw, October 2012 Risk Analysis Unit Frontex reference number: 16022 DISCLAIMERS This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. All maps included in this report are the sole property of Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited. Frontex disclaims any liability with respect to the boundaries, names and desig- nations used on the maps. The contents of open-source boxes are unverified and presented only to give context and media representation of irregular-migration phenomena. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The FRAN Quarterly has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and outside contributed to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude. 2 of 70 Table of contents Executive summary #5 1. Introduction #8 2. Methodology #9 3. Summary of FRAN indicators #10 4. Situational picture in Q2 2012 #12 4.1. Detections of illegal border-crossing #13 4.2. Routes #17 4.3. Clandestine entry (1B) #33 4.4. Detections of facilitators #34 4.5. Detections of illegal stay #36 4.6. Refusals of entry #37 4.7. Asylum claims #40 4.8. Document fraud #40 4.9. Returns #44 4.10. Other illegal activities at the border #46 5. Statistical annex #59 3 of 70 Frontex · FRAN Quarterly · q2 2012 List of abbreviations used BCP border-crossing point BCU border control unit CeCLAD-M Centre de Coordination pour la Lutte Anti-Drogue en Méditerranée CIESTCA International Centre for Tourism Studies of the Canary Islands COD, DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo-Kinshasa) COG Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) EC European Commission EDF European Union Document-Fraud EDF-ARA European Union Document-Fraud Annual Risk Analysis EDF-RAN European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network EMSA European Maritime Safety Agency EPN European Patrol Network EU European Union EUR euro FRAN Frontex Risk Analysis Network fYROM former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia ID identity document IOM International Organization for Migration JO Joint Operation MS Member State RAU Frontex Risk Analysis Unit SIS Schengen Information System TRA Tailored Risk Analysis TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia UEFA Euro European Football Championship of the Union of European Football Associations UK United Kingdom UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees US United States of America USD United States dollar VIS Visa Information System WB Western Balkans WB-ARA Western Balkans Annual Risk Analysis WB-RAN Western Balkans Risk Analysis Network 4 of 70 Executive summary Taken as a whole, in Q2 2012, detections of il- in Germany and also with a steady trend; legal border-crossing were reduced by nearly (2) were most often detected during clan- half compared to the same quarter in 2011 due destine entry, mainly into Hungary; (3) were to the simultaneous effects of the winding most frequently detected as illegal stayers, down of the Arab Spring and fewer Albanian primarily at their point of entry – Greece; circular migrants entering Greece. However, and (4) were subject to the most decisions detections at the undisputed long-term hot- to leave – chiefly in Greece. spot for irregular migration – the Greek land border with Turkey – were some 25% higher In contrast to the steady trends reported for than during the same period in 2011 due to the most commonly detected nationality, de- increased detections of migrants from Bang- tections of all other top-six nationalities of ladesh and particularly Syria. illegal border crossers increased compared to a year before. These included: migrants Based on detections of illegal border-crossing from Bangladesh (+35%), who departed from and on refusals of entry, irregular migration countries around the Persian Gulf where they pressure at the external border of the EU in- had been working legally in the construction creased seasonally during the second quar- business; migrants from Syria (+639%), who ter of 2012. Indeed, the seasonal increase of do not require visas to enter Turkey and so more than two-thirds in detections of ille- only needed facilitation from Istanbul in order gal border-crossing was the most significant to reach Greece; and migrants from Somalia change in any indicator at the EU level. Other (+62%) who were mostly detected arriving at indicators exchanged by the FRAN commu- the blue border of Malta on boats from Libya. nity, such as detections of facilitators and il- legal stayers, applications for international Without question in Q2 2012, the most sig- protection and effective returns, suggested nificant development in terms of irregular stable or declining trends compared to re- migration to the EU was increased detec- cent reporting periods. tions of migrants from Syria where the secu- rity situation has progressively deteriorated Consistent with the majority of reporting since the failure of Kofi Annan’s ‘six point’ periods either side of the Arab Spring, at the plan proposed in late March 2012. For exam- EU level the migrants most commonly de- ple, in Q2 2012 Syrians showed the highest tected illegally crossing the external border rate of increase in detections of illegal bor- were from Afghanistan with 20% of the to- der-crossing, and they were increasingly de- tal and a steady trend compared to the year tected as illegal stayers, in both cases these before. Of all detected Afghans, the majority indicators were almost exclusively reported were detected at the land border between by Greece. Furthermore, following recent in- Greece and Turkey, and are believed to have creases Syrians were ranked second among been previously resident in Iran, where per- applicants for international protection, mostly missions to stay have been increasingly re- in Sweden and Germany, where it was re- voked. At the EU level, Afghans were also the cently declared that Syrian nationals claiming nationality that (1) submitted the most appli- for asylum would be automatically granted cations for international protection, mostly refugee status. Elsewhere, most EU Member 5 of 70 Frontex · FRAN Quarterly · q2 2012 States have refrained from forcibly repatri- At the EU level, the second most affected bor- ating Syrians back to their country. der section after the Greek-Turkish border was the Greek-Albanian border. Albanian circular Subsequent to the current reporting period migrants were detected crossing the border a male migrant claiming to be a Syrian na- illegally and, increasingly, using counterfeit tional stated that he arrived in Greece just border-crossing stamps to fabricate travel his- 24 hours after leaving Syria by using an in- tories and extend periods of stay. The sharp ternal flight in Turkey among his modes of increase in detections of this modus operandi transport, showing how little time could pass by Greece rendered Albanians the national- between events in Syria and arrivals in Eu- ity most commonly detected with fraudu- rope. The situation in Syria is likely to remain lent documents at the external EU border. volatile for the foreseeable future. Currently, Other important trends in document abuse there are no plans for multilateral military to enter from a third country included Paki- intervention with sufficient support among stanis mostly detected in Greece, followed the international community. In terms of by migrants from Morocco mostly detected secondary movements from Greece, Syrians in Spain, and Nigerians mostly detected in were also detected on exit from Greece and France. Overall there was an increase in the on entry to German, Belgian and Dutch air- use of forged passports (British followed by ports using counterfeit EU residence permits French) and visa fraud continued to decline, and forged Greek and Bulgarian travel doc- possibly in anticipation of the Visa Informa- uments. Consistent with other nationalities tion System. entering via Greece, Syrians were also increas- ingly detected in the Western Balkans espe- In the Central Mediterranean, where detec- cially at the Croatia-Serbia border. tions peaked in 2011 during the Arab Spring, migrants from Somalia were increasingly de- Other nationalities were also detected mak- tected in Malta. Specifically, in May 2012 the ing secondary movements from Greece. For arrival of Somali migrants in Malta increased example, Afghans were the most commonly significantly while Italy registered a decrease detected nationality in the Western Balkans in the number of Somali migrants appre- most of whom are assumed to have origi- hended in Sicily and the Pelagic Islands. The nally entered the EU in Greece.