ELECTION ASSESSMENT in the South Caucasus (2003-04) ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL IDEA 2004 E LECTION A SSESSMENT in the South Caucasus 2003-04 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia INTERNATIONAL IDEA 2004 © International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance 2004 International IDEA publications are independent of specific national or political interests. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of International IDEA, its Board or its Council members. Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or any part of this publication should be made to: Information Unit International IDEA SE -103 34 Stockholm Sweden International IDEA encourages dissemination of its work and will promptly respond to requests for permission to reproduce or translate its publications. Graphic design and print by: "Fashion Marketing Solutions", Yerevan, Armenia ISBN: 91-85391-32-8 International IDEA: Election Assessment in the South Caucasus (2003-04) C ONTENTS Foreward . 1 Acknowledgment . 2 International IDEA in the South Caucasus: Challenges towards Sustainable Democracy . 3 A RMENIA Discussion Paper 1 An Analysis of the 2003 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Armenia by Aghassi Yesayan . 5 Discussion Paper 2 Comments on the Analysis of the 2003 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Armenia by Avetik Ishkhanyan . 23 Discussion Paper 3 Comments on the Analysis of the 2003 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Armenia by Valerie Poghosyan . 33 A ZERBAIJAN Discussion Paper 1 An Analysis of the 2003 Presidential Election in the Azerbaijan Republic by Eldar Ismailov . 41 Discussion Paper 2 Comments on the Analysis of the 2003 Presidential Elections in the Republic of Azerbaijan by Mirali Huseynov . 59 Discussion Paper 3 Comments on the Analysis of the 2003 Presidential Election in Azerbaijan: ‘Laboratory Materials’ and Lessons Learned in the Latest Presidential Election by Niyazi Mehdi . 67 G EORGIA Discussion Paper 1 An Analysis of the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Georgia: A Case Study, November 2003–March 2004 by David Usupashvili . 75 Discussion Paper 2 Georgia: Through Elections to the ‘Rose Revolution’ by Ivlian Haindrava . 101 Discussion Paper 3 The Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Georgia, 2003–2004 by Ghia Nodia . 113 3 International IDEA: Election Assessment in the South Caucasus (2003-04) 4 International IDEA: Election Assessment in the South Caucasus (2003-04) FOREWARD These essays tell the story of elections that took place in 2003 in the three countries of the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, seen through the eyes of nine regional participants and commentators. The authors therefore write with the immediacy and the vibrance that comes with close engagement, and sometimes take strong judgments based on their individual standpoints as the processes unfolded. While the political situations and dynamics in the three countries are very different, the studies reveal many common challenges for reformers seeking to entrench well-organised, transparent and sustainable election processes. The endeavours of ruling elites to resist or, when pressure for change is strong, dissemble and delay are highlighted. Even in Georgia, where the fall of a discredited regime has led to widespread celebration, a careful scrutiny of the landscape reveals a picture in which there are perhaps less checks and balances after the ‘Rose Revolution’ than there were before. A strong presidency is common to the institutional framework of all three countries, a feature often attributed to the traditions of hierarchy within communities in the region. It is sometimes suggested that these traditions are linked to the concept of exchange of favours, in which leaders protect their followers and deliver benefits to them, and followers return the favour by giving something of value to the leader. The studies bring into focus the challenges of using presidential and semi-presidential constitutions to deliver accountable and effective democracy rather than solely to reflect older forms of organisation of society. The need for a strong and trusted election administration is clearly high on the agenda throughout the region. The most common approach to this issue worldwide, especially strong in new democracies, is the establishment of an independent and permanent electoral management body. However, where the legacy of a partisan state bureaucracy is still strong, there is often a lack of confidence that it would yet be possible to put such a body in place. In such cases, an approach is often adopted in which representatives of competing political forces mutually police each other’s activities, thereby ensuring independence. The studies show however that the South Caucasus countries have yet to fully adopt either approach. While opposition and civil society pressure, supported on occasion by international recommendations, have emphasised the importance of trust in the election administration, the commissions in place in all three countries in 2003 retained structures under which the executive power could maintain control. Election administration needs not only to be independent but also professional. Election administrators in the region face the challenge to build the capacity to run efficient elections on a basis that can be sustainable given the budget and the human resources that are realistically available. In this context, IDEA is pleased to have been able to support, with the assistance of the Government of the Netherlands, IDEA’s member state, both the development of interactive training material to assist capacity building by regional election administrations in the South Caucasus and the implementation of training programmes by the Central Election Commission of Georgia. The use of the media in influencing elections is increasingly recognised worldwide, and the Caucasus is no exception. Elections may be technically well administered may still take place in an environment where the messages of the political grouping in power predominate in the media. The voices of other contenders are completely drowned out in the period before the intense scrutiny of the election campaign period and often also during the campaign period itself. The studies highlight the importance of the development of traditions in the drafting and interpretation of laws and regulations. An excessive reliance on legal formalism can result in restrictions which often particularly hamper opposition contenders. In countries where the assumption is that only that which is openly specified is permitted, it is vital that legislators and regulation drafters are encouraged to cover all the ground necessary to ensure the open competition on a level playing field that democratic elections demands. I believe that these studies will form a valuable resource to promote continuing public debate among democracy builders in the region. What is however remarkable is the extent to which the issues they raise mayfind echoes and relevance in many other countries and regions where the quest for democratic elections and electoral environments continues. Andrew Ellis Head of Electoral Processes International IDEA Stockholm November 2004 1 International IDEA: Election Assessment in the South Caucasus (2003-04) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS International IDEA would like to take this opportunity to give special thanks to the experts and practitioners from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - authors of the discussion papers: Ivlian Haindrava, Mirali Huseynov, Avetik Ishkhanyan, Prof. Eldar Ismailov, Prof. Niyazi Mehdi, Prof. Ghia Nodia, Dr Valierie Poghosyan, David Usupashvili, Aghassi Yesayan. We thank Aram Ohanyan and Lilit Mkrtchyan for the Russian–English and English–Russian translation, Nina Iskandaryan and Zara Babayan for the Russian–language editing, and Eve Johansson for the English–language editing. We also thank the printers, Fashion Marketing Solutions in Yerevan, who assisted IDEA in the production and publication process. Finally, thanks go to IDEA’s South Caucasus Programme Team in Armenia and Georgia, and Armineh Arakelian, IDEA’s Representative in the South Caucasus and Head of Programme; Arpineh Galfayan, Consultant/Coordinator of Election project in the South Caucasus, as well as the Election Processes Team, in particular Andrew Ellis, Head of Election Process; and information and administrative teams at IDEA’s headquarters in Stockholm. 2 International IDEA: Election Assessment in the South Caucasus (2003-04) International IDEA in the South Caucasus: Challenges towards Sustainable Democracy International IDEA (the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance) based in Stockholm, Sweden, created in 1995, is an intergovernmental organization with 21 member states across all continents. IDEA plays a crucial role in supporting and advocating home-bred, participatory democratic processes in the South Caucasus. Being an international, inter-governmental organization, it has proven to be impartial and was able to engage in a short period of time a wide network of reform oriented thinkers and practitioners from different regions of the South Caucasus in a dialogue process about the challenges facing the region. This process-oriented and participatory assessment of the challenges of democracy constitutes an important tool for domestic actors to put their concerns on the political agenda and advocate political change. Beyond fostering participation and debates, International IDEA’s intervention in the