JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS: JAPAN-RUSSIA IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN IMPLICATIONS Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA 1819 L St NW #300 Washington, DC 20036 [email protected] JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SASAKAWA SASAKAWA USA U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE Edited by Gilbert Rozman JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE Edited by Gilbert Rozman Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA is an independent, American non-profit and non- partisan institution devoted to research, analysis, and better understanding of the U.S.- Japan relationship. Sasakawa USA accomplishes its mission through programs that benefit both nations and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Our research programs focus on security, diplomacy, economics, trade, and technology, and our education programs facilitate people- to-people exchange and discussion among American and Japanese policymakers, influential citizens, and the broader public in both countries. ISBN: 978-0-9966567-5-7 Printed in the United States of America. © 2016 by Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA Sasakawa USA does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views expressed herein are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sasakawa USA, its staff, or its board. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from Sasakawa USA. Please direct inquiries to: Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA Research Department 1819 L St NW #300 Washington, DC 20036 P: +1 202-296-6694 E: [email protected] This publication can be downloaded at no cost at http://spfusa.org/. Cover photo: © Kirill Kudryavtsev/Pool/epa/Corbis Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................................vii Dennis Blair, Chairman and CEO, Sasakawa USA Daniel Bob, Director of Programs and Senior Fellow, Sasakawa USA Introduction ............................................................................................................................................1 Gilbert Rozman, Emeritus Musgrave Professor of Sociology, Princeton University PART 1: THE FRAMEWORK FOR JAPAN-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS, RELATIONS IN 2012–15, AND PROSPECTS Chapter 1 Carte Blanche: Absence of a Peace Treaty—Abnormal Situation ...................................17 Alexander Nikolaevich Panov and Kazuhiko Togo Chapter 2 A View from Japan on Japan-Russia Relations in the mid-2010s: Collapsing Framework, and A Way Forward ............................................................................21 Kazuhiko Togo, Director, Institute for World Affairs, Kyoto Sangyo University Chapter 3 A View from Russia on Japan-Russia Relations in the mid-2010s: Searching for a Framework to Move Forward .........................................................................31 Alexander Nikolaevich Panov, Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations Chapter 4 A Once in Sixty-Year Opportunity? Shinzo Abe’s Approach to Vladimir Putin .............................................................................................................41 Tomohiko Taniguchi, Professor, Keio University and Distinguished Fellow, Sasakawa USA PART 2: GEOSTRATEGIC RELATIONS Chapter 5 Russia’s Approach to Japan under Vladimir Putin: A Strategic Perspective .................51 Dmitry Streltsov, Director of Japan Studies, Moscow State Institute for International Relations Chapter 6 Japan’s Approach to Russia under Shinzo Abe: A Strategic Perspective ......................61 Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Professor, Faculty of Policy Studies, Chuo University vi CONTENTS Chapter 7 Implications of Russia-Japan Relations for the Region .........................................................71 Georgy Toloraya, Director, Center for Asian Strategy, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Science Chapter 8 Russian Views on Security and Foreign Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Prospects for Cooperation with Japan ......................................................................79 Vasili Kashin, Senior Analyst, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Chapter 9 Japan-Russia Relations through the Lens of the U.S.-Japan Alliance .........................89 Frank Jannuzi, President and CEO, The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation PART 3: ECONOMIC RELATIONS Chapter 10 Japan-Russia Economic Relations with Emphasis on Energy Cooperation ................101 Hirofumi Arai, Director and Senior Research Fellow, Research Division, ERINA (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia) Chapter 11 The Russia-Japan Economic Relationship: It Is Political, but Not about the Territories .........................................................................................................111 Alexander Gabuev, Senior Associate and Chair, Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program, Carnegie Moscow Center Preface The U.S.-Japan relationship is at one of its post-World War II high-water marks. Last year’s update of the Bilateral Defense Guidelines, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s successful address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, the Diet’s passage of legislation to allow greater military cooperation with the United States in some circumstances, and the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership were all historic steps forward. However, as in any complex relationship between major countries, there are potential points of difference. Part of our mission at Sasakawa USA is to identify these differences and help find ways to address them. Russia presents a fascinating opportunity to do just that. The U.S. view of Russia is currently dominated by Russian aggression in Crimea, the Ukraine, and Syria. Japan’s view is quite different. Despite a recent increase in violations of Japanese air space by Russia, it is a relatively weak player in Asia; China poses a greater threat to Japanese interests. Although Russia still occupies the Northern Territories it seized from Japan at the end of World War II, Russia is a potential source of energy at a time when most of Japan’s nuclear power plants remain closed. As Princeton University’s Dr. Gil Rozman states in his excellent and comprehensive introduction: The recent relationship between Japan and Russia has defied conventional stereotypes. It has also irritated U.S. officials at a time when the United States wants a united front with Japan to confront Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, its non-cooperative approach to intervention in Syria, and signs that Moscow has revived Cold War thinking in its military posture. Last year, in partnership with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sasakawa USA convened a conference to explore the triangular relationship among the United States, Japan, and Russia. Economic and security experts, along with experienced diplomats from all three countries, discussed the history of key issues and the prospects for progress. This volume, edited by Dr. Rozman, is a result of that conference. It brings together the analyses of conference participants, who describe an underdeveloped Japan-Russia economic relationship, a series of ingenious but unsuccessful diplomatic and cartographic attempts to divide the Northern Territories in a way that both countries could claim as a win, and very subtle signaling by Russia and Japan that their concerns about China may present a margin for better relations with one another. The conference highlighted differing assessments, objectives, and priorities about viii PREFACE Russia between the United States and Japan. However, there is low likelihood of progress on either Russia-Japan economic relations or the Northern Territories issues, and the U.S.- Japan Alliance is capable of handling the issues without damage. Adm. Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) Daniel Bob Chairman and CEO Director of Programs and Senior Fellow Sasakawa USA Sasakawa USA Introduction Japan-Russia Relations under Abe and Putin: Progress and Prospects Gilbert Rozman A breakthrough between Japan and Russia is being vigorously pursued in 2016. Sixty years after the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Tokyo and Moscow, there is a prospect of a peace treaty and final resolution of their territorial dispute. Yet few have taken notice or considered the ramifications. This volume takes the prospect seriously, while recognizing the hurdles that stand in the way. It presents the insights of former diplomats and specialists from Japan and Russia, adding a U.S. perspective on geopolitics, and, in this introduction, draws together arguments in the volume while assessing the prospects for a breakthrough. We seek to inform readers about what has taken place over the past three years, and, even more, about the forces impacting this ongoing quest, whose strategic impact in the wider great power context could be notable. This diplomatic effort has drawn scant attention for at least three reasons: (1) listener fatigue, after earlier Japanese media sensationalism about a breakthrough just around the corner; (2) dearth of news on any progress over three years of talks; and (3) absence of obvious preconditions, since impressions of Abe and Putin do not suggest that they would be compromisers on territorial integrity and national identity, particularly as geopolitics and geo-economics seem to be pulling them apart. By pointing to factors different from those operating when hopes were dashed before, and conveying new information