Newsletter of the Friends of South Yemen Issue 9 — 16th February ­ 15th March 2021 International Zoom conferences discuss Yemen’s problems but offer few solutions South Yemen Update provides an insight into a number of just getting people round the table in Geneva to shake hands international Zoom conferences which analyzed the and sign a piece of paper is not enough. A lot of people do country’s seemingly intractable problems as the momentum not want the war to end as they benefit from it. Global towards peace increases. terrorism has an epicentre in Yemen and that has to be Apart from the Next Century Foundation, which addressed. Without the right to self determination of the endorsed the plan for the federalization of Yemen put southern people of Yemen nothing will be solved. This issue forward by the National Dialogue Conference, few solutions has to be part of any solution. Just drawing a line between for ending the continuing war and securing a lasting peace North and South Yemen will no longer take care of the were put forward. Friends of South Yemen (FOSY) has problem. What will happen to Hadhramawt? People think it written to the recently appointed US Special Envoy on is a matter of President Hadi’s government and the Southern Yemen, Tim Lenderking proposing two constitutionally Transitional Council (STC) against the Houthis. There were recognized autonomous regions: the northern region and ideological differences between Hadi’s government and the the southern region, each with its own parliament, political STC that boiled out into open warfare. There are tribal parties, elections, executive, ministries, legislative and affiliations of Abyan and Shabwa on the one hand and judicial powers, budget, judicial system, internal security Radfan and Dala on the other. It is not just the north against forces and police. A central transitional administration the south. The south­south issues are also very complex. The headed by President Hadi could be responsible for defence, Saudis will not allow a Hezbollah­like organization fully foreign policy and the allocation of an equitable share of armed on its border. The Houthis will not accept to lay down national revenue. (See South Yemen Update Issue 8 for the their arms because they feel they will be massacred. So there full text of the letter.) has to be an investment zone in the north that was spoken Three hundred and thirty organizations from 18 about in 2000. Instead of depopulating border areas, countries took part in a global day of action organized by the populating them will create jobs and will build trust between UK­based Stop the War Coalition to protest against the war. between the Saudis and the Houthis. But the protestors focused solely on the coalition’s bombing of the infrastructure and killing of civilians and totally SAMA’A AL­HAMDANI FOUNDER AND EXECUTIVE ignored the Houthis who are armed and supported by Iran. DIRECTOR OF THE YEMEN CULTURAL INSTITUTE WASHINGTON: The US is not doing enough. It can remove the involvement of the UAE and Saudi Arabia but to engage Arab Centre, Washington (ACW) in real peace all the Yemeni parties have to be engaged. The Yemen Policy under Biden: way that the various actors look at Yemen is quite different. Opportunities and Challenges For Iran, Yemen is a way of hurting Saudi Arabia and 18th February advancing in the region. To Saudi Arabia it is a ABDULWAHAB AL­KEBSI security threat from a MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR neighbour. For the US it PROGRAMS AT THE US CENTER is a key to resolving the FOR INTERNATIONAL AND Saudi­Iranian proxy war PRIVATE ENTERPRISE: Yemen is and resolving the now a top foreign policy priority for tensions between Iran the USA. There have been back­ and the US. The role of channel talks with the Houthis. The Oman needs to be USA is finally not looking at Yemen activated. It is a place through a Saudi prism but from a where Yemenis can meet US foreign policy objectives prism. and talk with each other. Yemen is a very complex issue so For a lasting peace the In an interview with the Guardian Southern Transitional Council President Aidaroos Qasim Al­Zubaidi, calls for a UN sponsored referendum on independence for the South. He tells CNN that co­existence with the Houthis is not possible – visit www.friendsofsouthyemen.org for details. Page 2 South Yemen Update Issue 9 — 16th February ­ 15th March 2021 Yemenis have to sign into the peace process but the ground programme. “An international body needs to support the for that to happen has not been set. Any peace settlement new government with all its deficiencies. The focus should that does not include Yemenis is likely to fail and trap now be on economic development rather than donor Yemen in a cycle of wars where it is going to be a country conferences. Yemen has enough resources if those resources with no regional involvement and no commitment from were managed properly. There are 350,000 oil barrels a day, Saudi Arabia or the UAE to continue helping with the aid sufficient gas to export, fisheries and substantial customs situation but with continuous turmoil within. and tax revenues. Yemen can sustain its own development. If the economic NADWA AL­DAWSARI NON­RESIDENT SCHOLAR AT problems are sorted out, THE WASHINGTON BASED MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: a solution to the political The current peace process by the UN Envoy Martin Griffiths problems will come is deeply flawed, because it is fixated on a political eventually. An settlement between the Houthis and Hadi’s government. A international body is a political settlement is not going to end the war or mitigate much better proposition the humanitarian situation. than the current corrupt Griffiths has been pushing for administration. a ceasefire for years with no A two­region success. The Stockholm solution may be a Agreement was used by the temporary solution. Houthis to regroup and With the Houthis expand militarily and now controlling almost 80 they are threatening Marib, per cent of the north it is the last stronghold of the impossible to talk about Yemeni government. The Yemeni unity which in same thing will happen if a reality does not exist. The Houthis control of one part of the political settlement is forced country and the STC and other players in the south control down the throats of Yemenis the other part. So a two region solution similar to Kurdistan in the name of peace. The may provide a temporary political solution. There are Houthis are not going to different political Southern players including supporters of descalate. They define this the President of the internationally government who are also war as a war between them Southerners. The South also has a problem now with and the Saudis. If they take Marib they will move south. If Shabwa and Hadramawt governorates but these could be they take Yemen they will push inside Saudi Arabia. dealt with in reconciliation between the different parties. It is very important that the Houthis are pushed far from The Southern Transitional Council or any other group Marib. Yemen is not ready for a political settlement. The should not rule the South on its own because the effects of the war on civilians have to be mitigated through environment is conducive to democratic elections to decide open roads and seaports, salaries paid on time and the local on the leaders. The South is not driven by conflicts of tribes, economy improved. Hopefully over time there will be trust it is driven by conflicts of politics and political intransigence. between the different parties. The Yemeni conflict will end If we can resolve that we can have a state in the South. That but it will be on Yemeni terms. Only Yemenis will decide is the best weapon to get rid of the Houthis. If our Northern when peace will happen and there are not enough incentives brothers and sisters see a functioning state in the South for the parties to end the conflict. A political settlement where people get paid and services are delivered they will get under the current circumstances will most likely reinforce rid of the Houthis. The Houthis cannot be dislodged by an the current power dynamics and lock Yemen into a cycle of armed struggle. They have been through six wars with the perpetual war bringing 30 million Yemenis closer to famine Yemeni state before this war and with tribal and Iranian and pushing the country further away from peace. backing are very powerful. With regard to stopping arms sales we should go for an international embargo on arms sales to those countries that are involved in the war including Iran. If weapons cannot be bought from the British Next Century Foundation (NCF) they will be bought from the Chinese or the Russians. An The future governance of Yemen (side international agreement is required to stop sales of weapons meeting to 46th session of the UNHRC) on all sides. 1st March 2021 We as Yemenis, all of us want this war to end as quickly as possible. I have every faith that Yemenis will come to a NCF SECRETARY GENERAL WILLIAM MORRIS opened political solution. They have come to political solutions the meeting of London­based NCF by summarizing the main before, they are strong people, with a strong culture and points made in the NCF’s written statement, which civilization and they are able to resolve their own problems expressed concern that the Tehama region which contains eventually. Many of Yemen’s problems are caused by foreign 23 per cent of Yemen’s population is not represented in the interference.