Assessing the impact of Bioversity International’s project “overcoming poverty in coconut growing communities” Froukje Kruijssen January, 2009 Nijmegen, the Netherlands Commissioned by Bioversity International i TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 1 Listofaccronyms....................................................................................................................... 2 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 2 Methods.............................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Impactevaluationofdevelopment projects................................................................. 4 2.2 Data.............................................................................................................................. 9 3 Dataanalysis .................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Modelspecification ................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Variables.................................................................................................................... 11 4 Results .............................................................................................................................. 16 4.1 Incomederivedfromintercrops ................................................................................ 16 4.2 Incomederivedfromlivestock.................................................................................. 21 4.3 Highvaluecoconut products ..................................................................................... 23 4.4 Totalincomeandincomediversification .................................................................. 27 4.5 Communitynurseries................................................................................................. 33 4.6 Foodsecurity ............................................................................................................. 37 4.7 Gender ....................................................................................................................... 43 4.8 Knowledgedisseminationandnetworking................................................................ 43 4.9 BioversityInternational’srole................................................................................... 44 4.10 Project benefit-costratio............................................................................................ 47 5 Discussionandconclusions.............................................................................................. 48 5.1 Overviewofoutcomes............................................................................................... 48 5.2 Constraints................................................................................................................. 50 5.3 Weaknessesofthestudy............................................................................................ 51 References ................................................................................................................................ 51 Annexes.................................................................................................................................... 53 Annex1:Project components,activities,outputs (accordingtoprojectdocuments) .......... 53 Annex2:Templatesocio-economicquestionnaire .............................................................. 55 Annex3:Samplingstrategiesanddatacollectiondates ...................................................... 61 Annex4:Partnerquestionnaire ............................................................................................ 62 Annex5:Contemporaneousevents...................................................................................... 65 Annex6.Areaandproductionofcoconutandcoconutoil20052007 ............................... 67 Annex7.Descriptive statisticsexplanatoryvariables percountry ...................................... 68 Annex8.People participatinginintercropactivityandpeople trainedbygender .............. 70 Annex9.Probit(IMR)–dependentvariabledata ............................................................... 71 Annex10.Probit (IMR) bycommunity ............................................................................... 72 Annex11.Livestockadoptedandnumberof participants bycountry................................. 72 Annex12.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariablelivestockincome bycommunity.......... 74 Annex13.Numberof peopletrainedonnursery managementandHVPs bycountry ........ 74 Annex14.Overviewofcomparisonof meansofcoconut productionvariables ................. 75 Annex15.Listof project publications ................................................................................. 77 Annex16.Collaboratingorganizations................................................................................ 83 ii TABLE OF FIGURES Figure1.Impact pathwayofthe project .................................................................................... 8 Figure2.Europeanmarket pricesof coconutoil 20052008(US$) ........................................ 13 Figure3.Pricetrendsforcopraandcoconutoil20052008.................................................... 28 Figure4.Prevalenceofunder-weightchildrenunderfiveyearsofage .................................. 38 LIST OF TABLES Table1.Interventions,outcomes,timeframeandindicators ..................................................... 7 Table2.Samplesizefor baselineandpost projectsocioeconomicdata .................................. 9 Table3.Comparisonofdescriptivestatisticsofindicators by baselineandpost-project ....... 12 Table4.Definitionofexplanatoryvariablesanddescriptivestatistics.................................... 14 Table5.Overviewofintercrop intervention............................................................................ 16 Table6.Probitwithdependentvariable‘project’.................................................................... 17 Table7.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariable income from intercrops bycountry............. 18 Table8.Comparisonofmeansofintercrop income bycommunity........................................ 19 Table9.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariable income from intercrops bycommunity....... 20 Table10.Participationintrainingcoursesonlivestockandfeedproductionbycountry ....... 21 Table11.Comparisonof meansoflivestockincome betweenbaselineand post-project....... 22 Table12.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariableincomefromlivestock .............................. 23 Table13.Comparisonof meansofoff-farmincome bybaselineandpost-project................. 24 Table14.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariableoff-farmincome ........................................ 26 Table15.Comparisonof meansoftotalunadjustedandadjustedhouseholdincome............. 29 Table16.Comparisonof meansofincomediversification(Herfindahl index)....................... 30 Table17.OLSwithIMRanddependentvariabletotalincome............................................... 31 Table18.Overviewofcomparisonof meansofcoconut productionvariables....................... 33 Table19.Overviewofcomparisonof meansofnumberofvarieties ...................................... 34 Table20.Participationinnurserymanagementactivities bycountry ..................................... 35 Table21.Coconutvarieties identified,nurseries establishedandseedlingsdistributed ......... 36 Table22.PricedifferencesinUSD between(new)CBOnurseriesandothernurseries......... 37 Table23.Comparisonof meanmonthlyexpenditureonfoodbycountry .............................. 38 Table24.Foodsecuritysituations............................................................................................ 40 Table25.Foodsecuritycopingstrategies................................................................................ 42 Table26.Participationintrainings bytopicandgender.......................................................... 43 Table27.Knowledgegenerationproducts............................................................................... 44 Table28.Nameandtypeofimplementingagencies ............................................................... 45 Table29.Formationof partnerships ........................................................................................ 45 Table30.Partners perceptionofBioversity’s role................................................................... 46 Table31.Summaryofcostsandbenefitsofthe project .......................................................... 48 Table32.Summaryofoutcomeindicators .............................................................................. 49 iii ABSTRACT In this paper we assess the impact of the project “Overcoming poverty in coconut producing communities” implemented by Bioversity International in collaboration with national partners and funded by IFAD. The main questions addressed are whether the project has achieved its objectives,what Bioversity’s role has beeninthe project,andhow the costs of the project relate to the benefits achieved. Four main interventions were examined, the introduction of food securityand income generatingintercrops,introductionof livestock,productionandmarketingof highvalue