TANZANIA FOOD SECURITY REPORT: May 16, 2003 Summary 1. The Food Situation Outlook for the 2003/04 year • National food crop production is likely to decline by 10 The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security percent this year compared to reported in April that Tanzania is likely to meet last year, mainly due to low around 92 percent of its own food requirements for and erratic rainfall. the June 2003 - May 2004 consumption year, • Despite this drop in corresponding directly to the1999/2000 production production, the overall food year (Table 1). supply situation remains adequate. However, staple Table 1: Food crop production and requirements prices began to rise in some markets in April, contrary to Domestic Requirement Ratio: Self the normal trend. Year Production next year sufficiency • In some locations, livestock MMT MMT Percent prices are falling, and terms of 1999/00 7,322,347 7,916,166 92 trade are worsening. Pasture 2000/01 7,694,626 8,142,882 94 and water are still available in 2001/02 8,572,288 8,383,631 102 sufficient quantities, however. 2002/03 7,695,115 8,369,008 92 • Staple food prices are Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security expected to stabilize over the next few months, when National food requirements for 2003/04 are harvests from the msimu and calculated at 8.4 MMT, while preliminary estimates masika seasons are expected for 2002/03 food crop production are around 7.7 to hit the markets. Prices MMT. Compared to last year, food crop production might start to escalate toward has declined by 10 percent from 8.6 MMT, attributed the end of the year, if to low and erratic rainfall in several parts of Tanzania appropriate counter-measures during the growing season. National food are not implemented in time. requirements have also been adjusted downward by about 2 percent, from 8.38 MMT to 8.37 MMT, because of refined population estimates. Requirements for 2001/02 were computed using the 1978-1988 inter-census population growth rate, which yielded a population of 33,584,607 in 2002, while the population census conducted during the year established a more accurate population figure of 33,667,659 people. 2. Food crop production Rainfall was low and erratic in all three seasons of the 2002/03 crop production year. These seasons include: (i) short rains (vuli) in bimodal rainfall areas from October to January; (ii) long FEWS NET is a USAID PROJECT managed by Chemonics International Inc. (www.Chemonics.net) Fifth Floor, PPF House Tel./Fax.: 255 22 2128521 P.O. Box 9130 e-mail: [email protected] Dar es Salaam Website: www.fews.net rains (msimu) in unimodal areas Figure 1: Production of major food crops between October to May and (iii) long rains (masika) in bimodal areas Cereals Pulses Banana Roots and tubers from October to May. As a result, 5,000 production yields for most of the 4,500 crops are likely to drop. Figure 1 4,000 shows the production trends for the 3,500 major staples from 2000/01 to 3,000 2,500 2002/03, based on estimates by 000 MT 2,000 MAFS. For each of these years, 1,500 maize accounts for about 30 percent 1,000 of total food crop production. 500 - MAFS’s food crop production 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 estimates for 2002/03 are higher than one would expect given the FEWS NET/Tanzania Source: MAFS poor rainfall, which clearly reduced crop yields. However, according to MAFS, there were considerable increases in cultivated area for most crops this year (up 39 percent over last year), which compensated for yield losses (Table 2). Table 2: Changes in area cultivated under major food crops Areas cultivated increased for Cultivated land (000 Ha) all crops except millet. Crop 2001/02 2002/03 % change Although detailed information Maize 1,587,767 2,682,818 69 is not yet available, higher food prices and a more open market Sorghum 695,894 759,842 9 provide possible incentives to Millets 201,078 170,699 -15 account for this increase. In Rice 325,939 569,614 75 2001, the government lifted a Wheat 55,336 64,750 17 ban on exporting maize, which Sub Total 2,866,014 4,247,723 48 coincided with high food Pulses 641,848 1,055,581 64 demand in neighboring Cassava 660,260 664,467 1 countries, especially in southern Africa. In previous Banana 286,996 360,894 26 years the domestic market was Potatoes 522,305 578,743 11 limited, and prices were Sub Total 2,111,409 2,659,685 26 suppressed in remote areas Total 4,977,423 6,907,408 39 with poor transport Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security infrastructure, such as Sumbawanga (Ruvuma Region) and Mbeya. On lifting the ban, an active maize trade in the Southern Highlands pushed prices up above the five-year (1997/98-2001/02) average (Figure 2). Good price prospects for the 2002/03 marketing year stimulated farmers to expand the acreage they cultivate in order to increase their sales. The area cultivated under maize in Mbeya and Rukwa regions alone is estimated to have increased by about 80,000 Ha between 2001/02 and 2002/03. 2 Figure 2: Average wholesale maize price trends for selected markets 01/02 02/03 Average 97/98-01/02 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Price in TShs per 100 Kg. per TShs Price in 2,000 - April April April April April April March March March March March March January January January January January January February February February February February February Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Dar es Mbeya Sumba- (Lake (Northern) (Central) Salaam wanga Victoria (East (Southern Basin) Coast) Highlands) FEWS NET/Tanzania Source: MCM 3. Prices and the current food security situation Food price trends started to move upward in most markets during April, a change from the expected stable or falling prices. The vuli season harvest and anticipated msimu season harvests in April/May normally push maize wholesale prices lower in April; however this year, maize prices in several markets, including Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, and Dar es Salaam, rose compared to March. The normal trend was evident in a few markets, like Sumbawanga (Rukwa Region) and Mbeya in the Southern Highlands, where maize prices fell modestly (Figure 2). The unexpected price rise in certain markets is mainly attributed to already recorded and expected crop failures, whereas the declining prices in the Southern Highland regions correspond to the availability of new harvests and reduced trading activity with southern Africa. Figure 3: Maize Average Wholesale Prices This year April maize wholesale prices were above last year’s 18,000 April 2002 April 2003 levels on most markets in the Lake 16,000 Victoria Basin including Mwanza, 14,000 Shinyanga, Bukoba (Kagera) as 12,000 well as in Morogoro and Mtwara 10,000 (Figure 3). Among these regions, 8,000 however, maize is an important 6,000 staple only in Mwanza, Shinyanga 4,000 and Mtwara, where the price rises 2,000 were 45 percent, 3 percent and Price in TShs per 100 Kg - 118 percent, respectively. The relatively high maize prices in ba oro uko Mwanza region are attributed to B Mwanza inyanga Mtwara h S Morog speculations related to the expected drop in maize production FEWS NET/Tanzania Source: MCM 3 this year, due to poor rainfall. Although maize is the major, preferred staple in Mwanza region, about half of the region’s maize supplies are procured from other regions in a normal year. Authorities in Mwanza predict that, this year, maize production in the region will be halved and will account for only about 25 percent of its needed supplies. The rest will need to be filled from other regions which are also likely to experience poor crop production. This is likely to translate into price increases in Mwanza, rising above last year and the five year (1997/98-2001/02) average. Although the price rise in Bukoba is high (102 percent higher than last year’s price), it is not as major a concern for household food security, because bananas, the staple crop, have performed well this year, and are selling at normal levels. Bean prices were also higher than normal in most markets. The average April wholesale prices were above: (i) the five-year (1998-2002) average except in Kigoma (Western); (ii) April 2002 prices, except in Kigoma, Moshi (Northern) and Sumbawanga (Southern Highlands); and (iii) last month’s prices, except in Morogoro (Coast) and Sumbawanga (Table 3). As with maize, increases in wholesale bean prices in most markets are attributed to reduced production and anticipated shortages, while the isolated price declines are in response to new harvests that began recently, which modestly increased availability. Table 3: Beans average wholesale prices on key markets Average: March Change compared to April 2003 April 2002 April 2003 Monitored April 98-02 2003 market vs average vs Apr 2002 vs March 2003 TShs per 100 kg Percent (%) Arusha 29,682 26,167 36,563 39,150 31.90 49.62 7.08 Bukoba 18,009 18,433 19,430 22,260 23.60 20.76 14.57 Dar es Salaam 35,171 35,000 43,417 49,000 39.32 40.00 12.86 Dodoma 24,422 20,778 31,417 37,600 53.96 80.96 19.68 Iringa 32,535 28,500 36,875 37,950 16.64 33.16 2.92 Kigoma 32,194 40,722 29,117 31,250 -2.93 -23.26 7.33 Lindi 41,500 25,633 47,000 52,944 27.58 106.55 12.65 Mbeya 29,002 32,167 31,850 34,600 19.30 7.56 8.63 Morogoro 33,379 28,778 47,917 45,330 35.81 57.52 -5.40 Moshi 34,402 36,611 34,625 35,950 4.50 -1.81 3.83 Mtwara 45,153 32,611 52,056 52,611 16.52 61.33 1.07 Musoma 30,276 23,000 35,745 43,000 42.02 86.96 20.30 Mwanza 20,354 19,667 29,833 32,400 59.18 64.75 8.60 Shinyanga 21,369 22,056 27,111 34,300 60.51 55.52 26.52 Singida 26,907 24,944 31,792 34,333 27.60 37.64 7.99 Songea 29,710 20,111 40,208 41,100 38.34 104.36 2.22 Sumbawanga 20,056 25,333 31,625 24,938 24.34 -1.56 -21.15 Tabora 32,345 30,889 34,318 37,000 14.39 19.78 7.81 Tanga 22,694 21,389 39,286 45,500 100.49 112.73 15.82 Source: Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing 4 Table 4: Food crop and cattle prices in Retail prices are also increasing in some Misungwi district, Mwanza Region locations.