Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop 2017 (LPI Contrib. No. 1989) 8016.pdf MARS EXPLORATION 2050: HUMAN AND ROBOTIC EXPLORATION INTERTWINED. B. M. Jakosky, Univ. of Colorado (LASP, U. of Colorado, 3665 Discovery Dr., Boulder, CO 80303, [email protected]). Introduction: Space exploration over the next could fly in 10-15 years, making it soon enough as to thirty years is likely to include increased human in- be real rather than infinitely far into the future. This volvement and to have increased collaboration be- mission also gives us time to develop the hardware for tween human and robotic missions. One of the options a later mission that would take people to the surface being discussed for human missions is Mars. Why and back up, first for a quick sortie and then for a Mars? “People in space” has always been about reach- longer stay. A full-up program might take several dec- ing beyond our grasp and exploring the unknown, and ades to carry out fully, but would have short-term ob- a target such as Mars is simultaneously very difficult jectives that by themselves are important. and very doable. In addition, Mars allows us to ex- Human And Robotic Exploration Are Compati- plore profound and fundamental scientific questions – ble: Many planetary scientists see the human explora- how do planets form and evolve, what factors control tion program as the enemy of “real” science. It’s not the evolution of planets and of climate, and is there life an either/or – cancelling the human program, for ex- beyond the Earth. ample, would not result in that money going into the The Science Is Important: Mars exploration robotic program. Rather, the human and robotic pro- brings together most aspects of our scientific goals in grams are not only compatabile with each other, they exploring the solar system. It gets at our understand- are intimately intertwined – each plays on the success- ing of planetary formation, interior/thermal history, es of the other, and both work toward a common goal. climate evolution, interaction with the Sun and the A decision to continue the human program or to solar wind, and, of course, the origin and evolution of send people to Mars will not be made on the basis of life. Combining these questions at one object has the science that will come out of it. That decision will made Mars a central focus in exploring our solar sys- be based on national pride, a desire to explore the un- tem. It is the place that best combines a reasonable known, and the challenge of doing human missions. If likelihood of having (or having had) life with relatively people are going to Mars, however, we should work to straightforward accessibility by spacecraft. integrate science into these missions from the begin- The question of whether Mars has life might be an- ning. Robotic missions will inform the science to be swered in part by the ESA/Russian Trace Gas Orbiter, carried out by human missions, can provide the context by in situ analysis, or by sample return in the next dec- in which humans will explore, and can provide key ade. However, a simple yes or no will not fully ad- information that will significantly help develop human dress the questions. If life exists, what is its distribu- missions have a higher level of robustness. tion around the planet, its history, its relationship to the Science can be carried out by human missions, of- planet’s geologic and climate history, and does it rep- ten in greater depth and more quickly than can be done resent an independent origin from that on Earth? If life robotically. While astronauts in orbit can target areas never existed, what is it about the Martian environment of the surface, control rovers more easily than from or its history that precluded its origin or existence? Earth, or explore Phobos or Deimos in person, the real Human Mars Missions Are Doable. The first value of having people there will be seen once they are human mission is not likely to be a full-up multi-year on the surface – in situ exploration is dramatically en- exploration of the surface. Such a mission would in- hanced when carried out directly by people. volve too many technical challenges and the stringing Conclusions: We have the ability today to credi- together of too many new developments. Rather, we bly plan and carry out a human mission to Mars. If can build toward that with a flyby or orbital mission Mars is the goal, we should do it by sending people to using technology we have at hand today. This ap- Mars and not by a decades-long diversion to some- proach is analogous to the Apollo missions to the where else in the solar system. We have the capability Moon – test out technologies in Earth orbit, then in to begin a Mars program today that has near-term, lunar orbit, lunar flyby, full-up test in Earth orbit and high-value objectives. lunar orbit, then land on the Moon. Taking this ap- proach at Mars, we would start with a human flyby or orbital mission; we have the technical capability today to develop this mission. Taking this approach would allow us to start development today of a mission that .