Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Egypt: Development of a Load Public Disclosure Authorized Management Program and Design of Time of Use/Seasonal Pricing Final Report September 2008 submitted by: Public Disclosure Authorized Economic Consulting Associates Ltd C:\A1 Files\Project\Egypt Electricity\Docs\Final Report\Final Report v1d.doc 30/9/08 Contents Contents Abbreviations and acronyms xi Executive Summary a Introduction a TOU tariff design process a Analysis and decision support tools b Sectors and customers c Mandatory or voluntary d Seasons and months d Days and hours e Peak/off-peak price ratio f Demand response analysis g Consideration of alternative TOU tariff designs h Assessment and summary j Implementation k 1 Introduction 1 2 TOU rate setting and rate design overview 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Cost reflectivity 3 2.3 Financial viability 5 2.4 Welfare and industrial policies 6 2.5 TOU design process 7 3 Review of regional TOU tariffs and contracts 10 3.1 Algeria 12 3.2 Iran 12 3.3 Israel 13 3.4 Jordan 14 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates i C:\A1 Files\Project\Egypt Electricity\Docs\Final Report\Final Report v1d.doc 30/9/08 Contents 3.5 Lebanon 14 3.6 Morocco 14 3.7 Syria 15 3.8 Tunisia 15 3.9 Summary and Conclusion 16 4 International TOU tariffs and interruptible contracts 18 4.1 China 18 4.2 Korea 22 4.3 Turkey 22 4.4 South Africa 23 4.5 Spain 23 4.6 Taiwan 25 4.7 Thailand 26 4.8 Vietnam 27 4.9 Comparison and Conclusions 28 5 Overview of the models and methodology 30 5.1 Introduction 30 5.2 Marginal costs 31 5.3 Tariff design 34 5.4 Demand response 37 6 Long-run marginal costs 39 6.1 Introduction 39 6.2 LRMC generation capacity 39 6.3 Incremental cost of capacity and energy 41 6.4 SRMC generation energy 42 6.5 Marginal costs of transmission and distribution 44 6.6 Allocation of capacity costs by season/time of day 47 6.7 Summary of marginal costs 50 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates ii Contents 7 Demand response modelling 52 7.1 Introduction 52 7.2 Types of customer response 52 7.3 Demand Response model 55 7.4 Demand elasticities 56 7.5 Cost-effectiveness tests 63 8 Conventional TOU tariffs 70 8.1 Introduction 70 8.2 Design of conventional TOU tariffs 71 8.3 EEHC’s own analysis of TOU tariff designs 73 8.4 Key assumptions 76 8.5 Sectors and customers 79 8.6 Mandatory or voluntary implementation 80 8.7 Time-of-use design options 84 8.8 Demand response model results 91 8.9 Consideration of alternative TOU tariff designs 95 8.10 Contractual issues 97 9 Special TOU contracts 98 9.1 Introduction 98 9.2 Special TOU tariff design options 99 9.3 Recommended design 99 10 Interruptible contracts 101 10.1 Introduction 101 10.2 Design of price terms in an interruptible power contract 102 10.3 Design issues 103 10.4 Design options 104 10.5 Summary of the design proposals 108 10.6 Cost effectiveness 109 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates iii Contents 10.7 Contractual and other detailed issues 110 11 TOU power purchase contracts 112 11.1 Introduction 112 11.2 Design of tariffs for power purchase 112 11.3 Assumptions 114 11.4 Design options 114 11.5 Cost effectiveness 117 11.6 Recommended design 118 11.7 Contractual and other issues 118 12 Assessment and summary 120 13 Implementation 121 13.1 Introduction 121 13.2 Encouraging a positive response 121 13.3 Priorities 124 13.4 Geographical pilots 125 13.5 Follow up and evaluation 125 13.6 Timetable 126 13.7 Required resources 128 13.8 Required actions 129 Annexes 131 A1 LRMC methodology 131 A1.1 Marginal capacity costs 131 A1.2 Marginal energy costs and LOLP by time of day 132 A1.3 Marginal costs of transmission and distribution 133 A2 Least-cost generation investment plan 135 A2.1 Existing and Committed Capacity 135 A2.2 System Demand 136 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates iv Contents A2.3 Load shapes 138 A2.4 Economic Parameters 140 A2.5 New Generation Options 140 A2.6 Fuel Price Assumptions 142 A2.7 Flexibility of Generating Plant 146 A2.8 The EGEAS Generation Planning Software 147 A2.9 Modelling hydro 148 A2.10 Results 148 A3 Transmission and distribution 155 A3.1 Transmission investment 155 A3.2 Transmission costs used in the LRMC analysis 157 A3.3 Distribution investment 158 A3.4 Distribution costs used in the LRMC analysis 159 A3.5 Sales, losses and peak load on the network 160 A4 Existing power plants (2007/08) 163 A5 Review of CCGT capital costs 167 A6 Inputs and outputs of the LRMC analysis 169 A7 International studies on demand elasticity 171 A7.1 US State Department survey 171 A7.2 EPRI study for California 173 A7.3 Middle-East study 175 A7.4 Saudi Arabia 176 A7.5 International survey 176 A7.6 Related Studies 177 A8 Demand response modelling – alternative designs 179 A9 TOU bulk supply tariff 185 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates v Contents A9.1 Introduction 185 A9.2 Design of the Bulk Supply Tariff (BST) 185 A10 Voluntary TOU tariff 186 A10.1 Eligibility criterion 186 A10.2 Overcoming customer inertia 187 A10.3 Contractual issues 188 A10.4 Follow up and evaluation 189 Tables and Figures Tables Table 1 Expected demand response g Table 2 Impact of alternative TOU tariff designs (all large consumers) i Table 3 Estimated peak demand savings from TOU tariffs and contracts k Table 4 Summary of TOU rate design characteristics in MENA countries 11 Table 5 Evolution of TOU rates at STEG (Tunisia) 16 Table 6 STEG’s 3-period and 4-period TOU rate options 16 Table 7 Comparison of selected international TOU tariffs 21 Table 8 RED Electrica’s Interruptible Tariff options 24 Table 9 Thailand’s original TOD rate 26 Table 10 Marginal cost of generation using the simulation method 40 Table 11 Marginal capacity cost of generation using the peaker method 41 Table 12 Marginal energy costs by season and time-of-day, 2009-10 (US¢/kWh) 44 Table 13 Marginal costs of energy by voltage of supply, 2009-10 (US¢/kWh) 44 Table 14 Technical and non-technical losses by voltage 45 Table 15 Further assumptions used to calculate the network marginal costs 45 Table 16 Marginal costs of transmission and distribution 46 Table 17 Cumulative marginal network costs delivered by voltage 47 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates vi Contents Table 18 Summary of marginal costs 50 Table 19 Sector overview 59 Table 20 CEC/CPUC demand-side economic tests 64 Table 21 Components of demand-side economic tests 65 Table 22 Marginal costs estimated by EEHC experts 73 Table 23 EEHC proposed tariff design – Alternative 1 74 Table 24 EEHC proposed tariff design – Alternative 2 74 Table 25 Announced tariff paths for large consumers 76 Table 26 Tariffs for large consumers announced in July 2008 77 Table 27 Marginal cost tariffs versus announced tariffs for 2009-10(EGp/kWh) 78 Table 28 Marginal costs of generation capacity and energy (¢/kWh) 84 Table 29 TOU tariffs in Syria, June 1 2002 (piastres/kWh) 85 Table 30 Comparison of demand charges and peak energy charges 90 Table 31 LRMC, announced tariff paths and TOU tariffs to be modelled 92 Table 32 Sensitivities in demand response – large industrial customers 94 Table 33 Sensitivities in demand response – all large customers 94 Table 34 Results of demand response modelling – expected values 94 Table 35 Impact of alternative TOU tariff designs (all large consumers) 96 Table 36 Demand response, alternative designs – large industrial customers 96 Table 37 Results of demand response modelling – all large customers 97 Table 38 Committed plant on EEHC system 136 Table 39 Demand forecast to 2022 (base case) 137 Table 40 Economic parameters used in the analysis 140 Table 41 Candidate plants – key parameters 141 Table 42 Candidate plants – outage rates 141 Table 43 Candidate plants – other parameters 142 Table 44 EIA oil and LNG price projections (constant 2005 prices) 145 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates vii Contents Table 45 Economic values of mazout and solar 146 Table 46 Generation investments – Run 1 149 Table 47 System operating costs – Run 1 150 Table 48 Generation investments – Run 2 151 Table 49 System operating costs – Run 2 152 Table 50 System operating costs – Run 3 153 Table 51 EHV lines and EHV/VHV substation investments (LE£ ‘000) 155 Table 52 VHV lines and VHV/HV substation investments (LE£ ‘000) 156 Table 53 HV lines and HV/MV substation investments (LE£ ‘000) 157 Table 54 Investment costs used in AIC transmission calculation (US$ million) 158 Table 55 Distribution investment 159 Table 56 Investment costs used in AIC distribution calculation (US$ million) 159 Table 57 Sales by voltage (GWh) 160 Table 58 Average losses at each voltage level (% of incoming) 161 Table 59 Peak losses at each voltage level (% of incoming) 162 Table 60 Peak loads on each of the networks (MW) 163 Table 61 Existing power plants (2007/08) 163 Table 62 “Best New Entrant” cost for a CCGT plant 167 Table 63 Costs – Run 1 169 Table 64 Costs – Run 2 169 Table 65 Costs – Run 3 170 Table 66 Demand and incremental demand 170 Table 67 Elasticity Summary: United States and United Kingdom 172 Table 68 Own-price elasticities in the industrial sector 173 Table 69 Industry long-run own-price elasticity 174 Table 70 Industry long-run own-price elasticity 175 Table 71 Estimated own price elasticities using two prices 176 Final Report, September 2008 Economic Consulting Associates viii Contents Table 72 Estimated own price elasticities using three prices 176 Table 73 Elasticities and impacts 177 Table 74 LRMC, announced