IIASA COLLABORATIVE PROCEEDINGS SERIES INPUT - OUTPUT MODELING llASA COLLABORATIVE PROCEEDINGS SERIES LARGE-SCALE LINEAR PROGRAMMING Proceedings of an llASA Workshop G.B. Dantzig, M.A.H. Dempster, and M.J. Kallio, Editors THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM: TRANSPORTATION, RAILWAY, ENVIRON- MENTAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES A. Straszak, Editor HUMAN SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS: SPATIAL PATTERNS AND TRENDS Selected Papers from an IlASA Conference T. Kawashima and P. Korcelli, Editors RISK: A SEMINAR SERIES H. Kunreuther, Editor THE OPERATION OF MULTIPLE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS Proceedings of an International Workshop, Jodfowy Dwor, Poland Z. Kaczmarek and J. Kindler, Editors NONPOINT NITRATE POLLUTION OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES: ISSUES OF ANALYSIS AND CONTROL Proceedings of an l IASA Task Force Meeting K.-H. Zwirnmann, Editor MODELING AGRICULTURAL-ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES IN CROP PRODUCTION Proceedings of an llASA Task Force Meeting G. Golubev and I. Shvytov, Editors LIQUEFIED ENERGY GASES FACILITY SITING: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS H. Kunreuther, J. Linnerooth, and R. Starnes, Editors ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS IN GLOBAL MODELING Proceedings of the 7th IlASA Symposium on Global Modeling G. Bruckmann, Editor PROGRESS IN NONDIFFERENTIABLE OPTIMIZATION E.A. Nurminski, Editor INNOVATION POLICY AND COMPANY STRATEGY H. Maier and J. Robinson, Editors THE KINK1 INTEGRATED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Y. Sawaragi and A. Straszak, Editors EUROPEAN AND UNITED STATES CASE STUDIES IN APPLICATION OF THE CREAMS MODEL V. Svetlosanov and W.G. Knisel, Editors MULTIOBJECTIVE AND STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION Proceedings of an l IASA Task Force Meeting M. Grauer, A. Lewandowski, and A.P. Wierzbicki, Editors ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS A Selection of Papers Presented at a Conference held in Smolenice, CSSR G. Golubev, Editor INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING Proceedings of the Third IIASA Task Force Meeting M. Grassini and A. Smyshlyaev. Editors INPUT - OUTPUT MODELING PROCEEDINGS OF THE THIRD IIASA TASK FORCE MEETING 23-25 September 1982 Maurizio Grassini and Anatoli Smyshlyaev, Editors INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Laxenburg, Austria 1983 International Standard Book Number 3-7045-0063-1 Volumes in the IlASA Collaborative Proceedings Series contain papers offered at l lASA professional meetings, and are designed to be issued promptly, with a minimum of editing and review. The views or opinions expressed in this volume do not necessarily represent those of the Institute or the National Member Organizations that support it. Copyright @ 1983 International lnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. PREFACE Input-output modeling at IIASA has a relatively short but interesting history. It started in 1979 with the pioneering efforts of Clopper Almon, who visited IIASA from the University of Maryland to lay the foundations of cooperation with the INFORUM project. The primary goals of the research at IIASA were to further develop econometric input-output models, to link individual national models on the basis of the software developed by Almon's team, and to build a collaborative network of scientists in different National Member Organization (NMO) countries who would contribute these models to IIASA. These aims were successfully realized within a few years by the installation at IIASA of 18 national models (varying in size and complexity), the dissemination of the necessary software to numerous institutions, and the linkage of three national models (of France, Belgium, and the Federal Republic of Germany). The software package, called SLIMFORP, has been transferred to practically all NMOS and implemented on a variety of computers to help scientists in their economic research. All these devel- opments have demonstrated the usefulness of the initiative and a large network of scientists from NMO countries and elsewhere has been established. An important role in this input-output work has been played by the annual conferences of the IIASA-INFORUM "family", which have been held at IIASA since 1980. During these three-day meetings, scholars from different countries have presented their experience on input-output analysis and forecasting, mostly with- in or based on the INFORUM framework. Potential users and pro- spective collaborators with the INFORUM project have normally also been invited. Therefore the papers in this volume represent the latest state in input-output research at IIASA and elsewhere in the INFORUM network. Additional information can be found in other IIASA publications, for example the working and collaborative papers by Clopper Almon, Douglas Nyhus, Ulrike Sichra, and Maurizio Ciaschini, which are available qn request. Now IIASA is embarking on a new project entitled "Patterns of Economic Structural Change and Industrial Adjustment", in which the input-output modeling work (previously under the umbrella of the System and Decision Sciences research area) will play an important part. It is therefore important to select approaches from previous IIASA work and the ongoing research of our collab- orators on the INFORUM project that will contribute significantly to a better understanding of the deep structural changes currently affecting national economies. We sincerely hope that many of the scientists whose papers are included in this volume will collaborate fruitfully with the new IIASA project. Anatoli Smyshlyaev Patterns of Economic Structural Change and Industrial Adjustment CONTENTS Preface Introduction Maurizio Grassini and Anatoli Srnyshlyaev PART ONE Linking Seven Input-Output Models of the Inform System Douglas E. Nyhus The International Part of the Belgian Inform Model Hilda Tahon and Dirk Vanwynsberghe The Use of a Nordic System of Input-Output Models in Norwegian Economic Planning Olav Bjerkholt and Paul Sand A Trade Model for the Nordic Countries Hans Olsson and Lennart Sundberg Direct and Indirect Import Contents by Commodity Groups and Countries: Denmark 1978 Bent Thage Regional Input-Output Models and Interregional Trade in the Framework of a National Model Dino Martel lato The Estimation of a Demand Equations System in a Regional Input-Output Model: The Tuscany Case Study. Preliminary Results Laura Grassini Some Problems of Regional Input-Output Analyses Demon- strated with Export Dependence in Baden-WUrttemberg 115 Werner Mflnzenmaier An Inforum-Type Input-Output Model for the Polish Economy: Preliminary Empirical Results 137 Andrzej Tomaszewicz, Lucja Tomaszewicz, and WZadysZaw WeZfe The Finnish Long-Range Model System Osmo ForsseZZ, IZmo Mtfenptftf, and RauZi Svento The Income Block of the Finnish Long-Range Model System 173 RauZi Svento Modern Input-Output Models as Simulation Tools for Policy Making 193 Maurizio Ciaschini The Price-Income Block of the US Inforum Model CZopper AZmon PART TWO 237 A Model of Net Investment, Replacement Investment, and Labor Requirements 239 Anthony Barbera Sectoral Capital Stock Estimates for Austria Ingo Schmoranz Employment Equations in the UK Model David N.F. Bet2 Input-Output Analysis and Linear Programming: The General Input-Output Model 313 Jb'rg BeuteZ The Effects of the Italian Energy Plan on Sectoral Outputs and Investment and on Private Consumption 329 AZessandro AZessandroni Input-Output Analysis of ~nergy-Macroeconomy Interactions 361 Christo Koprinkov Investment in an Input-Output Model (IOM) Alexander Dimitrov Constructing a Comprehensive Input-Output System for the Hungarian Economy Andor Csepinszky Modeling the Structural Change of consumption and the Input of Primary Resources in the GDR Economy by a Time- Series and Input-Output Approach Udo Ludwig, E. BiebZer, and M. Kraft Important Input Coefficients in Austrian Input-Output Tables for 1964 and 1976 Jiri Skotka Improvement of Forecasts by Using Variable Input Coefficients Georg Erber and Reiner Stdgtin On the Application of Markov Chains to Input-Output Dynamics 45 5 Pavot K6r6sz Estimating Trade Margin Matrices in a Make-Use Framework 471 Norbert Rainer An Input-Output Model for the USSR Economy Based on the 1972 Survey Anato ti Srnyshtyaev Deflators in Input-Output Tables Martin R. Weate A Quadratic Programming Approach to Data Reconciliation: Contrasts with RAS Francis J. Harrigan Use of the Information System for Systems Design and Analysis in Input-Output Modelling Bohus tau Sekerka INTRODUCTION Maurizio Grassini and Anatoli Smyshlyaev International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria The papers presented in this volume differ somewhat in their styles of presentation; 'many have been significantly revised since they were delivered at the Task Force meeting in September 1982 and we hope that the way in which they are now organized will help readers to discover common problems and explore the possibilities of joint research in the future. The papers have been divided into two groups. The first, on linkage of input-output models, also includes a few papers on models ready for linkage but not yet linked; the second group deals with the analysis and investigation of structural change, but also contains a description of recent developments in the INFORUM family of models. The first part of the volume opens with a contribution from Nyhus (USA) dealing with the linkage of seven national models