National Space Transportation Policy Issues for the Future THOR HOGAN AND VIC VILLHARD WR-105-OSTP October 2003 PREFACE This report was undertaken to provide relevant background information and policy analysis to support revision of National Space Transportation Policy (NSTP). The report highlights: the features of past U.S. national space policies regarding assured access to space and analyzes the implications of several approaches to achieving assured access to space for critical U.S. national security, civil, and commercial missions; the evolution of existing U.S. future space launch initiatives, and; the status of current U.S. in- space transportation initiatives. The report includes recommended policy language to address assured access to space, future space launch, and in-space transportation in a revised NSTP. Originally created by Congress in 1991 as the Critical Technologies Institute and renamed in 1998, the Science and Technology Policy Institute is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by RAND. This Institute’s mission is to help improve public policy by conducting objective, independent research and analysis on policy issues that involve science and technology. To this end, the Institute: • Supports the Office of Science and Technology Policy and other Executive Branch agencies, offices, and councils • Helps science and technology decisionmakers understand the likely consequences of their decisions and choose among alternative policies • Helps improve understanding in both the public and private sectors of the ways in which science and technology can better serve national objectives Science and Technology Policy Institute research focuses on problems of science and technology policy that involve multiple agencies. In carrying out its mission, the Institute consults broadly with representatives from private industry, institutions of higher learning, and other nonprofit institutions. Inquiries regarding the Science and Technology Policy Institute may be directed to the address below. Helga Rippen Director, Science and Technology Policy Institute RAND 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 Phone: (703) 413-1100 Web: www.rand.org/centers/stpi Email: [email protected] iii CONTENTS Preface........................................................................................................................................................... iii Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... vii Assured Access to Space................................................................................................................ vii Future Space Transportation ......................................................................................................... viii In-Space Transportation...................................................................................................................ix Acknowledgments..........................................................................................................................................xi Acronym List............................................................................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................1 Study Purpose and Research Approach ............................................................................................3 Organization of the Report................................................................................................................4 CHAPTER TWO: ASSURED ACCESS TO SPACE.....................................................................................6 Development of the Assured Access Concept ..................................................................................6 Post-NSTP of 1994 Developments ...................................................................................................9 Policy Options and Implications .....................................................................................................12 Use of a “Mixed Fleet”..............................................................................................................12 Distribution of Payloads ............................................................................................................12 Balance Sustainment and Future Capabilities............................................................................14 Space Launch Capability and Technology Base Maintenance ..................................................15 Assured Access to ISS...............................................................................................................15 Foreign Vehicles as Backup to U.S. Systems............................................................................15 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................16 CHAPTER THREE: FUTURE SPACE LAUNCH ......................................................................................18 Past Launch Vehicle Initiatives.......................................................................................................18 Future Space Launch Initiatives......................................................................................................20 Space Launch Initiative .............................................................................................................21 National Aerospace Initiative ....................................................................................................25 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................27 CHAPTER FOUR: IN-SPACE TRANSPORTATION ................................................................................29 Historical Perspective......................................................................................................................30 Project Rover/NERVA ..............................................................................................................31 Project Orion .............................................................................................................................31 SDI and SEI...............................................................................................................................32 NASA Exploration Team................................................................................................................33 Advanced In-Space Propulsion .................................................................................................33 Project Prometheus ....................................................................................................................38 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................41 APPENDIX A: MACRO-LEVEL SPACE POLICY TRENDS ...................................................................43 Failed DoD-NASA Cooperative Efforts .........................................................................................43 Commercial Space Sector..........................................................................................................44 High Profile Failures .................................................................................................................45 Dependence on Space Systems..................................................................................................46 RLV Failure...............................................................................................................................47 Complex Commercial Launch Market.......................................................................................48 Summary of Recent Events........................................................................................................48 Elements of the Current Environment.............................................................................................49 DoD Acquisition Program Cost Growth....................................................................................49 v Commercial Launch Industry Financial Difficulties .................................................................50 DoD and RLV Technologies .....................................................................................................50 Shuttle Replacement ..................................................................................................................51 Space Launch Initiative .............................................................................................................52 Near-Term Plans and Projections....................................................................................................52 Global Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) Launch Market ....................................................52 DoD/NRO Modernization .........................................................................................................52 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................53 APPENDIX B: ADMINISTRATION THEMES..........................................................................................54