Honeymoon over? The Hugo Group, March 2018 The govt’s worst week? • Ardern returned from a triumphant photo opp in the South Pacific to: • Labour summer camp scandal – Govt on the back foot – Ardern blindsided – Aspirational leader dragged into #metoo mud – Other Ministers implicated – Survivable, but has shown a different side to the PM • Winston Peters’s performance as Foreign Minister looks increasingly flakey • Growth a bit soft • Business confidence still soft • Internal tensions around water – Parker vs Maori • America’s Cup village decision looks very confused • Phil Twyford missing in action on housing • A suddenly less forgiving Press Gallery Peters’s performance • Off-script when being on-script is vital • Threats to post-WW2 global rules-based order intensifying • Ability to straddle between US and China diminishing • Small countries likely to find international relations tougher in this environment • If the govt’s foreign policy is to change, it needs to be highly disciplined • Instead, the PM is again defending, clarifying and obfuscating to cover for her deputy leader’s performance Policy conundrums mounting • Tax Working Group clearly placed CGT on the agenda • Provincial Growth Fund – underdone on first round of announcements – Much was previous govt’s initiatives • Behind the scenes, tensions on conservation policy vs tourism development – Provincial growth/employment vs pure green minister • End to oil and gas prospecting being floated internally • Lyttelton port strike • Teacher/nursing union pay claims vs Budget responsibility rules • CPTPP - is ending ISDS with Brunei, Malaysia, Viet Nam, and Peru wise? Survivable at present Upcoming policy signalled • NCEA review is huge – May education summits worth watching • Zero Carbon Act consultation period now under way – For completion in June/July – Legislation by Sept/Oct – Passage April/May 2019 – Adaptation options paper due shortly • R&D tax credits – Decision-making under way now • Electricity review – Not sympathetic to rooftop solar – Likely change to Low User regs • SSC Act review – Making public servants entrepreneurial via legislation… Nats reshuffle • Demotions are obvious • But promotions less so • Not much new blood • Surprising to see Paul Goldsmith now ranked above Nikki Kaye • No improvement for apparent talent such as Chris Bishop/Todd Muller – Punished for supporting other candidates? .