Ice island deterioration in the Canadian Arctic: Rates, patterns and model evaluation by Anna J Crawford A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario © 2013 Anna J Crawford Abstract Knowledge regarding the deterioration processes of large tabular icebergs, known as ice islands, is limited within the Canadian Arctic. This study analyzed ice island deterioration through two aspects: 1) horizontal (areal) and 2) vertical (surface melt or ‘ablation’). Satellite images were digitized to monitor areal dimensions, classify deterioration modes and correlate deterioration rates with environmental variables. The rates of deterioration were different between the Eastern and Western Canadian Arctic regions possibly due to differences in air temperature and sea ice concentration. Validation of operational surface ablation models was also carried out with in-situ microclimate measurements. The Canadian Ice Service iceberg model under-predicted surface ablation by 68%, while a more complete energy-balance model developed for ice islands improved output accuracy (7.5% under-prediction). These analyses will provide useful knowledge regarding the deterioration process of ice islands to offshore stakeholders for mitigation of risks associated with ice island hazards to offshore operations. ii Acknowledgements My initial thanks goes to Dr. Derek Mueller for willingly taking on and supervising a green, yet keen, geography student and providing numerous opportunities for field research, collaborative projects and conference participation. Dr. Elyn Humphreys, who was on my advisory committee, provided guidance that was appreciated. The past two years have revealed to me what a passionate and supportive community exists within Arctic research and the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies. I would like to thank Kieran Jones for always providing an interested ear or a releasing laugh, whichever was necessary. Dr. Luke Copland has been continually helpful with the donation of equipment. Work previously accomplished by Sierra Pope, Colleen Mortimer, Adrienne White (University of Ottawa), and Sara Knox (Carleton University) was influential in data analysis. Numerous parties aided in the deployment of ice island tracking beacons throughout the Canadian Arctic including Julie Payette, Louis Fortier, the Canadian Ice Service (CIS), the Natural Resources Canada team working on gathering information for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, C- CORE (Tony King) and Canatec and Associates (Scott Tiffin). This project was undertaken with the financial support of the Government of Canada through the federal Department of the Environment via a partnership with the Canadian Ice Service. Funding and in-kind support were also granted through the Government Related Initiatives Program, Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment, ArcticNet, NSERC, Polar Continental Shelf Project, Northern Scientific Research Program and British Broadcasting Corporation. Field support was provided by the University of Manitoba (Klaus Hochheim and David Barber). Modeling effort and guidance was contributed by Tom Carriers, Han Tran (CIS), and Greg Crocker (Ballicater iii Consulting Inc.). The ice island research project owes its success to team members Andrew Hamilton, Alexander Forrest, Bernard Laval, Val Schmidt and Richard Yeo. iv Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ..................... ...................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... x List of Appendixes ...................................................................................................................... xi List of Symbols and Abbreviations ......................................................................................... xii 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research objectives and study hypothesis .................................................................. 3 1.2 Methodological approach and paper contributions ..................................................... 4 1.3 Thesis structure .. ........................................................................................................ 5 2.0 Literature Review ........ ........................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Ice island morphology ................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Climate change and ice island production .................................................................. 9 2.3 Arctic offshore activity .............................................................................................. 11 2.4 Drift and occurrence of ice islands in the Canadian Arctic ....................................... 12 2.4.1Eastern Canadian Arctic .............................................................................. 12 2.4.2Western Canadian Arctic ............................................................................. 14 2.5 Ice island deterioration ............................................................................................... 14 2.6 Remote-sensing techniques for detecting and tracking ice islands ............................ 17 2.7 Surface ablation modeling ......................................................................................... 22 2.7.1 Energy balance modeling ........................................................................... 22 2.7.2 Temperature index modeling ...................................................................... 25 2.8 Knowledge gaps and conclusion ................................................................................ 26 3.0 Deterioration modes of ice islands in the Eastern and Western Canadian Arctic regions ................................ ....................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Introduction ........ ....................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Study Sites ......... ....................................................................................................... 33 3.2.1 Eastern Canadian Arctic ......................................................................................... 33 3.2.2 Western Canadian Arctic ........................................................................................ 36 3.3 Methods ............. ....................................................................................................... 40 3.3.1 Ice island tracking........................................................................................ 40 3.3.2 Ice thickness measurements ........................................................................ 40 3.3.3 Ice island surface area ................................................................................ 42 3.3.4 Volume and mass calculations .................................................................... 44 3.3.5 Sea Ice Concentration Analysis .................................................................. 45 3.3.6 Deterioration Modes ................................................................................... 45 3.3.7 Environmental conditions and deterioration rates analysis ....................... 46 v 3.4 Results ................ ....................................................................................................... 48 3.4.1 Eastern Canadian Arctic ............................................................................. 48 3.4.2 Western Canadian Arctic ............................................................................ 53 3.4.3 Eastern and Western Canadian Arctic ....................................................... 57 3.5 Discussion .......... ....................................................................................................... 59 3.5.1 Influence of sea ice concentration on ice island deterioration modes ........ 59 3.5.2 Mass loss and hazard potential ................................................................... 62 3.5.3 Drift tracks, environmental conditions and deterioration .......................... 65 3.5.4 Deterioration mode and environmental condition difference between regions ......... ....................................................................................................... 66 3.5.5 Ice island life spans .................................................................................... 67 3.6 Conclusion and future work ...................................................................................... 68 4.0 Surface ablation model evaluation on a drifting ice island in the Canadian Arctic ...... 73 4.1 Introduction ........ ....................................................................................................... 73 4.2 Study Site ........... ......................................................................................................