East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2016 1 EAST LINDSEY ECONOMIC BASELINE 2016 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 4 Business Creation and Survival ...................................................................................................42 The Visitor Economy ........................................................................................................................43 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 9 Geography of East Lindsey ............................................................................................................10 4. PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES .......................................................................45 Structure of the Report ...................................................................................................................11 Population Structure .......................................................................................................................47 Age ..........................................................................................................................................................48 2. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .....................................................................................12 Overseas Migration...........................................................................................................................49 National Agenda - Productivity and Growth ........................................................................14 Ethnicity ................................................................................................................................................49 Greater Lincolnshire Local Enterprise Partnership ..............................................................15 Future Population Growth ............................................................................................................50 Lincolnshire .........................................................................................................................................18 The Labour Market ............................................................................................................................51 East Lindsey .........................................................................................................................................18 Employment ........................................................................................................................................51 Sub-Area: Coast .................................................................................................................................19 Claimant Count Unemployment ................................................................................................52 Sub-Area: Rural Inland ...................................................................................................................20 Benefit Claimants ............................................................................................................................53 Sectoral / Thematic ..........................................................................................................................21 Travel to Work Patterns ..................................................................................................................54 Supporting Productivity and Growth in East Lindsey ........................................................23 Skills ........................................................................................................................................................56 School Age Attainment ..................................................................................................................56 3. EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS BASE .........................................................24 Adult Skills Levels ..............................................................................................................................57 Employment ........................................................................................................................................26 Economic Inclusion ..........................................................................................................................59 Employment by Sector ...................................................................................................................28 Deprivation Indices ..........................................................................................................................59 Employment Concentration by Sector .....................................................................................29 Priority Sectors ...................................................................................................................................30 5. ECONOMIC COMPARATOR ANALYSIS .......................................................63 Coastal and Rural Inland Comparisons ....................................................................................35 Comparator Area Selection ...........................................................................................................65 Business Base ......................................................................................................................................36 Indicators for Comparison and Scoring ...................................................................................65 Business Base by Sector .................................................................................................................36 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................66 Business Base by Size ......................................................................................................................37 Smaller Towns ....................................................................................................................................66 Productivity .........................................................................................................................................39 Hub Towns ...........................................................................................................................................68 Enterprise .............................................................................................................................................41 Self-Employment ..............................................................................................................................41 2 EAST LINDSEY ECONOMIC BASELINE 2016 6. GROWTH PROJECTIONS................................................................................71 Document prepared by: The Picture in 2016 ..........................................................................................................................73 Future Performance .........................................................................................................................74 Growth Projection based on comparison with West Lindsey .........................................76 Demographic Implications ............................................................................................................79 7. SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH .........................................................82 Demand for Energy ..........................................................................................................................84 Meeting Future Housing Needs ..................................................................................................86 Transport Infrastructure and Connectivity .............................................................................87 Broadband Connectivity ................................................................................................................89 East Lindsey as a Place to do Business .....................................................................................89 Employment Land and Business Premises ..............................................................................91 8. EAST LINDSEY’S ECONOMIC NARRATIVE .................................................93 The Challenges ...................................................................................................................................94 The Opportunities .............................................................................................................................96 9. IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................................98 If you would like this information DATA SOURCES .................................................................................................101 in a different format, please GLOSSARY ......................................................................................................... 105 contact us on 01507 601111 3 EAST LINDSEY ECONOMIC BASELINE 2016 Executive Summary 4 EAST LINDSEY ECONOMIC BASELINE 2016 The ‘East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2016’ is intended to update East Lindsey District While average wages for full-time workers in East Lindsey have improved since the 2010 Council’s evidence base. Refreshing the previous Baseline produced in 2010, it presents Baseline, now exceeding Lincolnshire levels,