Equity Research INDIA March 17, 2021 BSE Sensex: 49802 AU Small Finance Bank ADD ICICI Securities Limited Maintain is the author and distributor of this report Investing for future; strategically expanding footprints Rs1,170 Company update and At a time when AU Small Finance Bank’s most peers are either grappling with target price change lower collections or sounding cautious in growing balance sheet, it remains committed in utilising its strong operational performance to invest for future. FINANCIALS Addition of ~186 banking touch-points and ~2,000 headcounts since March’20 during the most challenging times reflect AU’s unwavering focus on Target price: Rs1,320 strengthening asset franchise. It delivered robust ~42% AUM CAGR between FY18-20 - highest within listed SFB space and added infrastructure would ensure sustainability of high growth over near term. Taking cognisance of improving Target price revision Rs1,320 from Rs994 collection (pre-covid level in Dec’20) and clarity on asset quality, it kick started pursuing growth Q3FY21 onwards – disbursed Rs65bn, up 41% YoY and highest ever. With improving visibility on growth, capital infusion of Rs6.25bn and likely Shareholding pattern credit cost normalisation in FY22e (~40% coverage on proforma GNPL), we Jun Sep Dec ‘20 ‘20 ‘20 adjust our target multiple to ~5x FY23e (still ~35% lower than historical peak) and Promoters 29.0 29.0 29.0 revise TP upwards to Rs1,320 (earlier Rs994). Maintain ADD. Institutional investors 43.5 46.1 51.7 Strong asset franchise should help in reviving growth faster than peers. AU’s MFs and UTI 8.9 9.5 10.4 market share in vehicle financing at ~1% in new vehicle & ~6% in used vehicle vs FIs/Banks 0.1 0.0 0.0 Insurance co. 3.5 3.5 1.2 <1% market share in total credit speaks for its competitive edge in financing self- FIIs 31.0 33.1 37.1 employed small-ticket loans diversified across sub-segments of vehicle financing. Others 27.5 24.9 19.3 Notably, access to public deposit, post converting into SFB, helped it improve its cost of funds. The same has strengthened its position at dealers point and will help Price chart it corner self-employed customers from NBFCs. Competitive edge over NBFCs coupled with diversified product mix, niche in self-employed small-ticket financing 1,350 and adequate tier-1 @ 20% (adjusted for Aavas stake sale in Dec’20) will ensure 1,200 AU getting back to normalcy quicker than peers. – a) moderation in credit 1,050 Key risk 900 growth and b) stress unfolding higer than anticipated. (Rs) 750 Not shying away from investment. What we like the most about AU is its strategy 600 to continue to leverage its strong asset franchise – taking cognisance of cost of fund 450 advantage over NBFCs and improving collections, strengthening its distribution 300 reach and beefing up manpower. It added ~186 banking touch-points and ~2,000 headcounts since March’20. Most banking touch-points have been opened at the Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 existing locations to deepen its distribution reach and enter neighboring locations. Notably, AU clearly stands out when we look at spending trend of listed SFBs on business infrastructure since March’20 (refer chart 2). Improving liability franchise will further strengthen its market positioning. AU’s ability to think beyond traditional banking and build customer-friendly processes have helped it build strong retail liability franchise vs other SFBs. On the back of its improving liability franchise, its cost of fund continued to trend downwards, declining to 7.0% in Q3FY21 vs 7.5% in Q4FY20. Further, cost of incremental fund raised in Q3FY21 is significantly lower by ~110bps at 5.95%. Market Cap Rs365bn/US$5bn Year to March FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Reuters/Bloomberg AUFI.BO/AUBANK IN NII (Rs mn) 19,094 23,415 29,552 35,748 Shares Outstanding (mn) Research Analysts: 312.1 Net Profit (Rs mn) 6,753 11,878 9,964 12,612 52-week Range (Rs) 1,268/380 EPS (Rs) 22.1 38.8 32.5 41.2 Renish Bhuva Free Float (%) 68.0 % Chg YoY 65.7 75.9 (16.1) 26.6 [email protected] +91 22 6637 7465 FII (%) 37.1 P/E (x) 53.1 30.2 36.0 28.4 Kunal Shah Daily Volume (US$/'000) 12,410 P/BV (x) 8.2 5.8 5.1 4.3 [email protected] Absolute Return 3m (%) 24.0 Net NPA (%) 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 +91 22 6637 7572 Absolute Return 12m (%) 38.8 BVPS (Rs) 143 200 231 269 Chintan Shah [email protected] Sensex Return 3m (%) 6.4 RoA (%) 1.8 2.6 1.9 2.0 +91 22 6637 7658 Sensex Return 12m (%) 64.9 RoE (%) 17.9 22.6 15.1 16.5 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report AU Small Finance Bank, March 17, 2021 ICICI Securities Chart 1: Unwavering focus on building infrastructure… CAGR between FY18-9mFY21 35% 30% 30% 26% 25% 21% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% AUM Branches Employee Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 2: …even during pandemic Net Employee addition 3,500 2,900 3,000 2,500 1,880 2,000 1,500 1,000 193 500 -68 0 -500 -1,000 -637 -1,500 -1,108 Net Addition since March'20 Net Addition since June'20 AU Equitas Ujjivan Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 3: AU continued to invest in branch footprints – should ensure sustainability of disbursement uptick in Q3FY21 Banking Touchpoints 1000 861 900 854 800 714 700 575 575 600 528 500 400 300 200 100 0 AU Equitas Ujjivan March'20 Dec'20 Source: Company data, I-Sec research 2 AU Small Finance Bank, March 17, 2021 ICICI Securities Chart 4: During 9MFY21, AU doubled asset centres to 159 – historical trend suggests existing asset branches may ensure 25%+ growth over medium term… Asset centres AUM growth (%) 180 60% 49% 49% 159 160 50% 140 40% 29% 120 30% 97 100 20% 83 82 80 10% 60 0% FY18 FY19 FY20 9MFY21 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 5: …incremental asset centres largely opened at existing locations Asset Centres as on March'19 Delhi/NCR , 5 Himachal Pradesh, 1 Chhattisgarh, 2 Haryana, 3 Punjab, 6 Rajasthan, 31 Maharashtra, 12 Gujarat, 14 Madhya Pradesh , 9 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Chart 6: Expanded network & competitive rates to help AU revive growth quicker than peers Cost of Funds as on Dec'20 12.0 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.2 7.7 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Magma* Shriram* Shriram MMFS* Chola Equitas Ujjivan AU City Source: Company data, I-Sec research. Note – Chola CoF is for managed Vehicle book. Magma, Shriram and MMFS CoF is calculated. 3 AU Small Finance Bank, March 17, 2021 ICICI Securities Financial summary Table 1: Profit & loss statement (Rs mn, year ending March 31) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Interest earned 29,488 42,864 49,717 58,656 71,146 Interest expended 16,066 23,769 26,302 29,104 35,397 Net interest income 13,423 19,094 23,415 29,552 35,748 Other income 4,620 7,061 13,669 8,935 11,273 Staff cost 6,011 7,596 8,951 11,723 14,247 Depreciation 639 767 920 1,104 1,325 Other operating expenses 4,174 5,816 5,509 7,790 9,325 Total operating cost 10,824 14,179 15,381 20,618 24,897 4,813 6,582 6,430 8,894 10,650 Pre-provisioning op profit 7,219 11,977 21,703 17,870 22,124 Provisions & contingencies 1,418 2,832 6,592 4,554 5,270 Profit before tax & exceptional items 5,801 9,145 15,111 13,315 16,854 Exceptional items Profit before tax & exceptional items 5,801 9,145 15,111 13,315 16,854 Income taxes 1,983 2,392 3,233 3,352 4,242 PAT 3,818 6,753 11,878 9,964 12,612 Source: Company data, I-Sec research Table 2: Balance sheet (Rs mn, year ending March 31) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Capital 2,924 3,041 3,115 3,115 3,115 Reserves & surplus 28,705 40,727 58,278 67,494 79,358 Networth 31,629 43,768 61,393 70,609 82,474 Total borrowings 2,80,358 3,67,478 3,99,164 4,66,222 5,95,930 Banks 54,173 69,349 79,708 78,696 1,14,467 NCDs/Bonds 24,391 18,250 9,963 9,837 14,308 Commercial papers/CDs 7,570 18,250 9,963 9,837 14,308 Term Deposits & CASA 1,94,224 2,61,630 2,99,529 3,67,852 4,52,847 Provisions 6,642 6,642 6,642 6,642 6,642 Other Liabilities 7,599 6,028 17,295 20,300 23,681 Total liabilities & stockholders' equity 3,26,228 4,23,916 4,84,495 5,63,773 7,08,727 Loans & advances 2,28,187 2,69,924 3,26,365 4,01,767 5,10,081 Investments 71,617 1,06,682 1,11,852 1,22,550 1,50,678 Cash and Balance 17,402 33,697 31,933 23,311 29,797 Fixed Assets 4,470 4,480 4,831 5,437 6,119 Current & other assets 4,552 6,648 9,514 10,708 12,052 Total Assets 3,26,228 4,21,431 4,84,495 5,63,773 7,08,727 Source: Company data, I-Sec research 4 AU Small Finance Bank, March 17, 2021 ICICI Securities Table 3: Key ratios FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Growth (%): AUM 49.2 29.0 12.5 23.1 27.0 Loan book (on balance sheet) 72.2 19.0 19.5 23.1 27.0 Total Assets 73.2 29.9 14.3 16.4 25.7 Total Deposits 145.7 34.7 14.5 22.8 23.1 Total NDTL 80.2 31.1 8.6 16.8 27.8 Total Investments 134.8 49.0 4.8 9.6 23.0 Interest Income 66.9 45.4 16.0 18.0 21.3 Interest Expenses 94.3 48.0 10.7 10.7 21.6 Net Interest Income (NII) 42.7 42.3 22.6 26.2 21.0 Non-interest income 19.1 52.8 93.6 -34.6 26.2 Net Income 35.8 45.0 41.8 3.8 22.2 Total Non-Interest Expenses 52.1 39.3 -5.3 41.4 19.7 Pre provisioning operating profits (PPoP) 25.3 65.9 81.2 -17.7 23.8 PAT 30.7 76.9 75.9 -16.1 26.6 EPS 30.7 65.7 75.9 -16.1 26.6 CA 176.0 3.0 8.9 43.5 39.4 SA 44.0 6.6 48.3 25.9 24.4 Time deposits 192.7 48.9 15.9 22.7 23.1 Yields, interest costs and spreads (%) NIM on AUM 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.6 7.4 Yield on loan assets 11.0 12.5 12.1 12.3 12.3 Average cost of funds 7.4 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 Interest Spread on loan assets 3.6 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.6 Operating efficiencies Non interest income as % of net income 34.4 37.0 58.4 30.2 31.5 Cost to income ratio (%) 60.0 54.2 41.5 53.6 52.9 Op.costs/avg AUM (%)