NATO IN PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS: EFFICIENCY OF INTELLIGENCE AND PROPAGANDA IN BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA AND AFGHANISTAN A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY MURAT ASLAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JUNE 2017 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Tülin GENÇÖZ Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Özlem TÜR Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru BOYAR Supervisor Examining Committee Members Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru BOYAR (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Hüseyin BAĞCI (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Ünsal SIĞRI (Başkent U. DoH) Prof. Dr. Oktay TANRISEVER (METU, IR) Assist. Prof. Dr. Cenk AYGÜL (Atılım U. IR) I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Murat ASLAN Signature : iii ABSTRACT NATO IN PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS: EFFICIENCY OF INTELLIGENCE AND PROPAGANDA IN BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA AND AFGHANISTAN Aslan, Murat Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru BOYAR June 2017, 349 pages This thesis examines the efficiency of propaganda and affiliated intelligence functions of NATO in peace support operations. For this purpose, the research scrutinizes the context of peace support operations, NATO’s conceptualizations of propaganda and intelligence, their practice in the field, and the shifts that have occurred in these conceptualizations. In order to analyse such issues, the NATO operations in Bosnia- Herzegovina and Afghanistan are examined in detail as case studies. Both cases are used to pinpoint the discourse of propaganda and affiliated intelligence activities of NATO in peace support operations as well as challenges, which are encountered by NATO in such operations. It is argued that as NATO failed to shift its conventional thinking, stemmed from the Cold War environment, it is late to respond newly emerging threat types, actors, and the requirements of peace support operations. NATO’s experiences in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Afghanistan demonstrate to what extent NATO was unable to address the population centric concerns which peace support operations should have taken more interest in and to what extent intelligence and propaganda efforts of NATO in such operations proved to be successful in responding to the actual needs and necessities for (un)successfully completing peace support operations. Key Words: NATO, Intelligence, Propaganda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Afghanistan. iv ÖZ NATO VE BARIŞI DESTEK HAREKÂTLARI: BOSNA-HERSEK VE AFGANİSTAN MÜDAHALELERİNDE İSTİHBARAT VE PROPAGANDA ETKİNLİĞİ Aslan, Murat Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Doç.Dr. Ebru BOYAR Haziran 2017, 349 sayfa Bu tez; NATO’nun, barışı destek harekâtlarında icra edilen propaganda ve ilintili istihbarat fonksiyonlarının etkinliğini incelemektedir. Bu maksatla çalışma; barışı destek harekâtlarının kapsamını, NATO’nun propaganda ve istihbarat kavramlarını, sahadaki pratik ile bu kavramlardaki değişimi araştırmaktadır. Bu hususların analiz edilmesine yönelik olarak NATO’nun Bosna Hersek ve Afganistan’da icra ettiği harekâtlar birer vaka çalışması olarak detaylı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Her iki vaka, NATO’nun barışı destek harekâtlarındaki propaganda ve istihbarat süreçleri ile NATO’nun bu harekât tiplerinde karşılaştığı dirençler bağlamında irdelenmiştir. Yapılan çalışma sonucunda, NATO’nun Soğuk Savaş’tan kaynaklanan gelenekselliğinden kopamaması ile birlikte; ortaya çıkan yeni tehditlere, aktörlere ve barışı destek harekâtının gerekliliklerine cevap vermekte geç kaldığı görülmüştür. NATO’nun Bosna Hersek ve Afganistan tecrübeleri; barışı destek harekâtlarının ön plana çıkarttığı halk tabanlı kaygılara cevap vermekte ne kadar yetersiz kaldığını ve barışı destek harekâtlarının başarıyla sonlandırılmasında istihbarat ve propaganda faaliyetlerinin ihtiyaç ve gerekliliklerini karşılamakta ne derece başarılı olduğunu (veya olamadığını) ortaya koymaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: NATO, İstihbarat, Propaganda, Bosna Hersek, Afganistan. v To Teachers. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express her gratitude to his supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Boyar for her guidance and encouragements throughout the research. This thesis would not be concluded without Dr. Boyar’s precise contributions. I wish to thank the members of the dissertation committee for their constructive criticism and direction during the course of the dissertation. I appreciate the efforts of Herb Freidman, Ed Rouse, Ines Kuburovic and Sorin Christea since they provided original PSYOP products for this dissertation. Besides I thank all the interviewed individuals since they contributed the research by their incredible experiences. Finally, the author is deeply grateful to his family for their patience and tolerance. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ........................................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ............................................................................................................................................. v DEDICATION ........................................................................................................................ vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF SCHEMES .............................................................................................................. xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1. The Plan of the Thesis .................................................................................................. 7 1.2. Methodology .............................................................................................................. 10 2. THE CONTEXT OF PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS AND NATO .......................... 12 2.1 The Legal and Legitimacy Framework in Peace Support Operations ........................ 13 2.1.1 The UN’s Conceptualization of Peacekeeping Operations ................................ 16 2.1.2 NATO’s Peace Support Operations and Its Scope ............................................. 24 2.2 Challenges to NATO’s Peace Support Operations: The Environment ...................... 31 2.3 Challenges to NATO’s Peace Support Operations: The Actors ................................. 39 2.4 Probable Tasks in Peace Operations .......................................................................... 42 2.5 Challenges for NATO ................................................................................................ 43 2.6 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 48 3. NATO’S APPROACH AND CONCEPTUALIZATION OF INTELLIGENCE AND PROPAGANDA IN PEACE SUPPORT OPERATIONS ..................................................... 50 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 50 3.2 Contextualization of NATO’s Intelligence ................................................................ 51 3.2.1 Division on the Context of Definition and Theory ............................................ 51 3.2.2 Methodology of Intelligence .............................................................................. 55 3.2.3 Intelligence and Peace Support Operations ........................................................ 58 3.2.4 Socio-cultural Intelligence ................................................................................. 62 3.2.5 Shift in Contextualization of Intelligence .......................................................... 65 3.3 Propaganda in Peace Support Operations .................................................................. 67 viii 3.3.1 NATO’s Communication Conceptualizations and Propaganda ......................... 68 3.3.2 Strategic Communication ................................................................................... 75 3.3.3 Information Operations ....................................................................................... 82 3.3.4 Psychological Operations ................................................................................... 83 3.3.5 Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs ................................................................. 86 3.4 Influence, Persuasion and Propaganda ......................................................................