REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Communication has been developed by the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia with the funding of the Global 2020 Environmental Facility and support of the United Nations Development Programme in Armenia within the framework of the “Development of Armenia’s Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC and Second Biennial Update Report” project. 2020 UDC 551.58 Fourth National Communication on Climate Change. Yerevan․ UNDP Armenia, 2020.- 213p. COORDINATION TEAM Erik Grigoryan UNFCCC National Focal Point Dr. Irina Ghaplanyan Project National Director Dr. Diana Harutyunyan UNDP Climate Change Programme Coordinator, Editor Tatevik Vahradyan Project Assistant Anahit Ispiryan Project Assistant Editor: Naira Aslanyan Translator: Aramazd Galamkaryan; Armine Araksyan Designers: Edvard Martirosyan (internal pages layout); Peno Mishoyan (cover page) Photos: Provided by Dr. Karen Jenteredjian and Berta Martirosyan ISBN 978-9939-1-1101-8 Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia Address: Government Building #3 Republic Square, Yerevan 0010, Armenia Tel: (37411) 818500, (37410) 583932 Fax: (37411) 818501, (37410) 583933 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Website: www.env.am, www.nature-ic.am Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia FOREWORD Climate change is a complex issue that is both urgent and extremely serious. It poses a worldwide threat to human development and requires ambitious and bold collective climate action. To cope with the climate change crisis, the international community adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015, which went into force in November 2016. The Armenian Parliament ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017 and under this Agreement, together with all signatory countries, we work to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. With its First National Communication submitted in 1998, Armenia embraced a commitment to share the efforts and achievements in responding to climate change through regular development of national communications and later from 2012 to submit biennial update reports. The Fourth National Communication of Armenia reflects the country’s efforts and achievements in mitigating climate change through policies improving investment climate in renewable energy and energy efficiency, improving completeness and transparency of GHG Inventory, as well as reflecting challenges that the country face with vulnerability of economy and ecosystems to climate change. Armenia is committed to update country’s NDC in 2020, with an ultimate goal to identify realistic implementation strategy for limitation of greenhouse gas emissions and prioritization of adaptation measures for coping with risks to country’s sustainable development. Armenia is a country with ambitious climate change agenda and puts efforts devoted to low carbon development, increasing the share of renewable energy and promoting energy efficiency, preserving and enhancing forest covered areas. This year, for example, a pan-Armenian large- scale tree planting program will be held, as a result of which 10 million trees are expected to be planted. This is the first significant step taken by Armenia within the frames of the Paris Agreement. The Government of Armenia, adhering to the concept of protection of nature and ecosystems, through improving the environmental impact assessment, has also initiated other processes, such as the adoption of a decision on exemption of VAT for electric cars import, which contributed to significant increase in the number of electric cars imported to Armenia. On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, I express my acknowledgement to the Global Environmental Facility for financial support, to the United Nations Development Programme for assistance in the preparation of the Fourth National Communication, and to specialists in ministries, national experts and professional institutions for their contribution. Erik Grigoryan Minister of Environment Republic of Armenia LIST OF EXPERTS NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Dr. Mikhail Vermishev Coordination Dr. Simon Papyan (consultant) Naira Aslanyan Dr. Astghik Mirzakhanyan Aram Ter-Zakaryan Dr. Hovik Sayadyan (consultant) Dr. Davit Manukyan Climate Change Scenarios Dr. Hamlet Melkonyan Dr. Artur Gevorgyan GHG INVENTORY Coordination Agriculture Dr. Marina Sargsyan Dr. Samvel Avetisyan Zarmandukht Petrosyan Energy Dr. Ashot Hovhannisyan Tigran Sekoyan Dr. Tigran Gnuni Water resources Scientific Research Institute of Energy CJSC Dr. Levon Azizyan Dr. Liana Margaryan AFOLU Dr. Vahagn Tonoyan (consultant) Dr. Anastas Aghazaryan Dr. Ashot Hovhannisyan Settlements and Infrastructures Dr. Vahe Matsakyan Gohar Hovhannisyan Dr. Andrew Haywood (consultant) Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity Industrial Processes and Product Use Dr. Georgi Fayvush Vram Tevosyan Dr. Hunan Ghazaryan Anzhela Turlikyan Dr. Karen Jenteredjian Arshak Astsatryan Dr. Alla Aleksanyan Waste Human Health Martiros Tsarukyan Nune Bakunts Gohar Harutyunyan Uncertainty Assessment OTHER INFORMATION Dr. Marina Sargsyan Tigran Arzumanyan Data Management Serob Khachatryan Edvard Martirosyan Dr. Hamlet Melkonyan GAPS AND CONSTRAINS CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Dr. Marina Sargsyan Naira Aslanyan Tigran Sekoyan Dr. Diana Harutyunyan Dr. Hrant Gnuni Dr. Ashot Hovhannisyan Dr. Anastas Aghazaryan Martiros Tsarukyan Arshak Astsatryan Dr. Vahe Matsakyan Dr. Anna Sikharulidze TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .................................................................................................................................. v List of Experts .......................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... x Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY S-1. National Circumstances ............................................................................................... xvi S-2. GHG Inventory ............................................................................................................ xxiii S-3. Policies and Measures to Mitigate GHG Emissions .................................................... xxiv S-4. Projections of GHG Emissions and Assessment of Impact of Mitigation Policies and Measures ............................................................................................................. xxvi S-5. Climate Change Projections, Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures .. xxvii S-6. Other Information ...................................................................................................... xxxiv S-7. Gaps, Constraints and Capacity Development Needs for Implementation of the Convention ............................................................................................................... xxxvii NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1.1 State Structure ................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Geographical Location, Natural Conditions and Resources ........................................... 2 1.3 Population ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Economy ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Energy ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.6 Industry ......................................................................................................................... 12 1.7 Transport ....................................................................................................................... 13 1.8 Buildings ....................................................................................................................... 15 1.9 Agriculture and Forestry ................................................................................................ 15 1.10 Waste ............................................................................................................................ 17 1․11 Specific Indicators for GHG Emissions and Energy Intensity of GDP .......................... 19 1.12 Tourism ......................................................................................................................... 19 1.13 Legal Framework and Institutional Structure for Elaboration of National Communications ........................................................................................................... 20 1.14 Climate-targeted Funding ............................................................................................. 22 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 2.1 Basic Information on GHG Inventory ............................................................................ 26