The fight against terrorism Cost of Non-Europe Report STUDY EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Authors: Wouter van Ballegooij and Piotr Bakowski European Added Value Unit PE 621.817 - May 2018 The Cost of Non-Europe in the fight against terrorism Study Abstract In the wake of recent attacks, surveys show that combating terrorism while respecting individual freedom, remains one of the key concerns of EU citizens. The EU helps to fight terrorism through supporting national measures and exchanges to prevent radicalisation and recruitment, stronger measures against terrorist financing and the possession and acquisition of weapons and explosives, and strengthening security at the Union's external borders. It also supports operational cooperation between national law enforcement authorities, as well as harmonising terrorism related provisions in criminal law and procedure. This includes active cooperation with third countries and international organisations. This Cost of Non-Europe report identifies a number of gaps and barriers regarding accountability, oversight and the evidence provided to support policy and law-making, including counter-radicalisation programmes, the scope of action related to the disruption of terrorist financing, information sharing between Member States through various EU and national databases, the use of judicial cooperation tools and the capacities of EU agencies. EU action could address these effectiveness and fundamental rights protection gaps by developing an evidence-based EU criminal policy cycle involving the European Parliament and national parliaments. It is also argued that the effectiveness and fundamental rights compliance of counter-radicalisation programmes should be further monitored; the framework for countering terrorist financing needs to be further refined; and that finally, a European law enforcement culture should be fostered. Further EU action in the area is imperative since, besides the impact on victims and their families, terrorism has a negative effect on the wellbeing of the population as a whole, affecting people's life satisfaction, happiness, health, and trust within communities. It is estimated that since 2004, terrorism has cost the EU about €185 billion in lost GDP and around €5.6 billion in lost lives, injuries and damages to infrastructure. It also harms trade, foreign direct investment, and tourism. At the same time, certain measures taken to combat terrorism have had a disproportionate impact on suspects and wider groups within society, in violation of fundamental rights, as well as being counterproductive. EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Cost of Non-Europe Report AUTHORS The initial analysis was undertaken by Wouter van Ballegooij, of the European Added Value Unit, and Piotr Bakowski, of the Members' Research Service, both in the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). The annexed paper was produced by RAND at the request of EPRS. ABOUT THE PUBLISHER This paper has been drawn up by the European Added Value Unit of the Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value, within the Directorate–General for Parliamentary Research Services of the Secretariat of the European Parliament. The authors would like to thank Berten Kempen for his assistance. LANGUAGE VERSIONS Original: EN DISCLAIMER The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the authors and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. This document is available on the internet at: www.europarl.eu/thinktank Manuscript completed in May 2018. Brussels © European Union, 2018. PE 621.817 ISBN: 978-92-846-2949-7 DOI:10.2861/550497 QA-01-18-524-EN-N 4 The fight against terrorism Table of Contents Background and methodology 2 Executive summary 5 1. State of play, gaps and barriers in EU action and cooperation in the fight against terrorism 8 1.1. International standards 10 1.2. EU action and cooperation 13 1.2.1. Counterterrorism in post-Lisbon environment 13 1.2.2. The EU policy and legislative framework on counterterrorism 15 1.3. Barriers and gaps identified in effective fight against terrorism 18 1.3.1. Gaps in accountability, oversight and evidence-based policy and law making 19 1.3.2. Gaps in the evidence base for anti-radicalisation programmes 21 1.3.3. Barriers to disrupting terrorist financing 23 1.3.4. Lack of operational cooperation between law enforcement authorities 26 1.3.5. Lack of cooperation with EU agencies 29 2. Impacts of terrorism and counterterrorism measures 32 2.1. Impacts of terrorism 33 2.2. Impacts of counterterrorism measures 40 3. Options for action and cooperation at EU level that could address the gaps and barriers 44 3.1. Developing an evidence-based EU criminal policy cycle 44 3.2. Strengthening the effectiveness and fundamental rights compliance of counter-radicalisation programmes 46 3.3. Further refining the framework for countering terrorist financing 47 3.4. Moving towards a European law enforcement culture 49 Annex I - Research Paper on the Cost of Non-Europe in the Fight against Terrorism 55 List of tables Table 1: Impacts of terrorism and counterterrorism measures....................................... 33 Table 2: Estimated human and physical capital cost of terrorism in the EU-28 ............ 34 Table 3: Estimated GDP cost of terrorism in the EU-28................................................ 37 Table 4: Estimated total human capital, physical capital and GDP cost by EU Member State.................................................................................................................. 42 List of figures Figure 1: International passenger traffic flown by European airlines ............................ 39 1 Cost of Non-Europe Report Background and methodology The notion of the 'Cost of Non-Europe' was introduced by Michel Albert and James Ball in a 1983 report commissioned by the European Parliament. It was also a central element of a 1988 study carried out for the European Commission by the Italian economist Paolo Cecchini on the cost of non-Europe in the single market.1 This approach was revisited in a Cost of Non-Europe in the single market report of 2014.2 In the latest Interinstitutional Agreement on Better Law-making, it was agreed that analysis of the potential 'European added value' of any proposed Union action, as well as an assessment of the 'cost of non-Europe' in the absence of action at Union level, should be fully taken into account when setting the legislative agenda.3 Cost of Non-Europe (CoNE) reports are designed to examine the possibilities for gains and/or the realisation of a 'public good' through common action at EU level in specific policy areas and sectors. They attempt to identify areas that are expected to benefit most from deeper EU integration, and for which the EU's added value is potentially significant. On 4 October 2016, coordinators of the European Parliament Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE) requested that the European Added Value Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) produce a report on the Cost of Non-Europe in the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice. In response to that request, the European Added Value Unit is preparing a report that will give an overview of the current state of play in the main policy areas covered by the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ) within the competence of the LIBE Committee. The report will map the current gaps and barriers and estimate their impacts in terms of both economic impacts and impacts on individuals in terms of protecting their fundamental rights and freedoms.4 Finally, in accordance with the Treaties it will provide options for action at EU level to address the identified gaps and barriers together with an estimation of their potential costs and benefits. 1 Commission on the European Communities, Europe 1992, the Overall Challenge, SEC (1988) 524. 2 Zsolt Pataki, The Cost of Non-Europe in the Single Market, Cecchini Revisited, An overview of the potential economic gains from further completion of the European Single Market, EPRS, European Parliament, September 2014. 3 Interinstitutional Agreement between the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union and the European Commission on Better Law-Making, OJ L 123, 12 May 2016, p. 1–14. 4 Cf Claude Moraes, A Europe of Costs and Values in the Criminal Justice Area, EUCRIM 2016/2, p. 88. The author notes that 'Nowadays, in the context of global economic and humanitarian crises, many voices are questioning the role and the very existence of the Union. It is therefore time to look back on Professor Cecchini's report and reflect on the cost of non-Europe in the area of freedom, security and justice in order to calculate its economic value – not always an easy task – and the cost to citizens in terms of their fundamental rights and freedoms'. 2 The fight against terrorism The following areas will be covered in the report: 1. Asylum, migration, border control; 2. Police and judicial cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism; and 3. Fundamental rights. A number of relevant studies have already been published covering the added value of an EU mechanism to monitor and enforce democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights in the Member States and within EU institutions;5 the benefits of further EU action and cooperation to ensure free movement within the Schengen Area;6 enhanced police and judicial cooperation in the fight against organised crime and corruption;7 procedural rights and detention conditions;8 as well as equality and the fight against racism and xenophobia.9 A briefing summarising the interim results was produced in October 2017.10 This Cost of Non-Europe report specifically focuses on EU action and cooperation in the fight against terrorism.