University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK Theses and Dissertations 8-2012 The iS lent Arms Race: The Role of the Supercomputer During the Cold War, 1947-1963 David Warren Kirsch University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd Part of the Asian History Commons, European History Commons, History of Science, Technology, and Medicine Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Kirsch, David Warren, "The iS lent Arms Race: The Role of the Supercomputer During the Cold War, 1947-1963" (2012). Theses and Dissertations. 423. http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/423 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. THE SILENT ARMS RACE: THE ROLE OF THE SUPERCOMPUTER DURING THE COLD WAR, 1947-1963 THE SILENT ARMS RACE: THE ROLE OF THE SUPERCOMPUTER DURING THE COLD WAR: 1947-1963 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment Of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History By David Warren Kirsch University of Arkansas Bachelor of Arts in History, 1992 University of Arkansas Bachelor of Arts, Criminal Justice, 2001 University of Arkansas Master of Arts, University of Arkansas in Sociology, 2003 August 2012 University of Arkansas ABSTRACT One of the central features of the Cold War is the “Arms Race.” The United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist republics vied for supremacy over the globe for a fifty-year period in which there were several arms races; atomic weapons, thermonuclear weapons and various kinds of conventional weapons. However, there is another arms race that goes unsung during this period of history and that is in the area of supercomputing. The other types of arms races are taken for granted by historians and others, but the technological competition between the superpowers would have been impossible without the historically silent arms race in the area of supercomputers. The construction of missiles, jets as well as the testing of nuclear weapons had serious implications for international relations. Often perception is more important than fact. Perceived power maintained a deterrent effect on the two superpowers. If one superpower suspected that they, in fact, had an advantage over the other then the balance of power would be upset and more aggressive measures might have been taken in various fronts of the conflict, perhaps leading to war. Due to this, it was necessary to maintain a balance of power not only in weapons but in supercomputing as well. Considering the role that the computers played, it is time for closer historical scrutiny. This dissertation is approved for recommendation to the Graduate Council. Dissertation Director: ______________________________________ Dr. Alessandro Brogi Dissertation Committee: ______________________________________ Dr. Alessandro Brogi ______________________________________ Dr. Tricia Starks ______________________________________ Dr. Douglas James Adams DISSSERTATION DUPLICATION RELEASE I hereby authorize the University of Arkansas Libraries to duplicate this dissertation when needed for research and /or scholarship. Agreed ____________________________ David Warren Kirsch Refused ____________________________ David Warren Kirsch ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The topic of this dissertation is somewhat obscure. Few historians have taken on the subject of computer technology preferring to leave it to those in the field of computer scientists. In fact, in earlier works I was criticized for doing what was in the realm of that discipline. So in order to pursue my academic interests I have often had to present arguments as to how technology pertains to history and why it is important to examine in an academic environment. Considering the difficulty of creating justifications for my work I have some people I would like to thank. First, is my dissertation advisor Alessandro Brogi who has shown considerable patience while I completed this work. He also deserves sole credit for showing me a new way of looking at the history of the Cold War. Typically the Cold War is taught from a purely American perspective and so the information presented does not differ from any American history course. Professor Brogi changed this for me by widening the scope of events outside of the United States and to consider the impact of the Cold War upon other nations. Second, to be thanked are my early mentors in my academic career. Professors Donald W. Engels, Evan Burr Bukey, William F. Tucker, James S. Chase, and Lynda L. Coon who took a personal interest in me as a younger man and in their teachings uncovered my potential to be a student of history. To add to this are Professors Douglas James Adams, Gordon D. Morgan, Steven Worden, and Libby Newman who added to my academic repertoire by introducing me to the discipline of Sociology and sharpening my thinking about the world around me. Third, my colleagues Scott Cashion, David Schieffler, Chet Cornell and especially Dr. Warren Paul Waren who have helped me often and have listened to me prattle on about this subject for several years and contributing their insights. Finally, I want to thank my parents and my family for offering their support in an ongoing academic career. DEDICATION To my wife Sonya T. Kirsch TABLE OF CONTENTS: Introduction 1 I. Precursors to the Cold War 12 Differential Equations 13 Isolationism and the Computer 15 The Differential Analyzer 16 Ballistics and Computing 18 World War II. 20 The Universal Machine 23 Enigma 26 Colossus and D-Day 29 American Code Breaking 31 American Progress 32 International Business Machines 33 Aiken and Mark I. 36 ABC Computer 41 Zuse’s Lie 43 Atomic Bomb 50 II. Kennan and the Machine 54 John von Neumann 57 Game Theory 58 Game Theory as Grand Strategy 60 Math and the Cold War 64 Digital Computers 65 The Report on the EDVAC 69 The Supercomputer Gap 71 Sergei Lebedev 73 Greece and Turkey 76 The Marshall Plan 78 IBM SSEC 80 Thermonuclear Calculations 81 The Berlin Airlift 82 Princeton Class Computers 85 Soviet Ideology and Computers 88 Joe I 91 Containment Crumbling 97 III. Into The Whirlwind 99 Containment vs. NSC 68 99 The Korean War and Turing 103 Engineering Reasearch and Associates 107 Soviet supercomputing and espionage 109 The Defense Calculator 114 The RAND Corporation 117 JOHNNIAC 122 RAND and NATO Vulnerability 124 Bull Computers 127 Whirlwind I 128 The Thermonuclear Era 132 IBM and Ike 134 UNIVAC 138 IV. Massive Retaliation and Some S.A.G.E.ly Advice 146 Stalin’s Death and Supercomputing 149 The Death of Analog Machines 152 Khrushchev’s Support of Supercomputing 154 Beria and Missed Opportunities 158 The “New Look” 160 Atoms for Peace 163 Computers and American Espionage 166 American Philosophy and Technology 170 The Darmstadt Conference 173 Open Skies 175 The Warsaw Pact 176 New Leaders and Linkage to Computer Science 179 Bulganin and Time-Sharing 179 SESM Propaganda 180 von Neumann’s Death 182 S.A.G.E. 186 Soviets catching up 191 Kissinger’s Critique of Technology 192 Sputnik and the Missile Gap 196 The Microchip 199 The National Defense and Education Act 201 IBM and Taiwan 203 Soviet Burst 204 Dulles Dies 207 U-2 and Corona 208 The Military Industrial Complex 209 V. Flexible Response I, The Dangers of Defection 214 Finally the Truth about the Missile Gap 215 The Optimal Solution 219 McNamara and RAND 221 The Bay of Pigs and Berlin 222 Soviet Defense Expands 225 Cuban Missile Crisis and Game Theory 228 Diplomacy to return to rationality 234 Controlled Nuclear War and Equivalency 236 CDC 6600 and Abrogation 240 Conclusion 246 Afterward 256 Bibliography 266 “Russia is sure to learn how to make the atomic bomb. I think Stalin has inherited Hitler’s ambition for world dictatorship. One must expect a war between U.S.A and U.S.S.R.” -John von Neumann, 1945 “The IBM Company owes half its money to Johnny von Neumann.” -Edward Teller Introduction The Silent Arms Race The central feature of the Cold War was the “Arms Race.” The United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics vied for supremacy over the globe for a fifty-year period in which there were several arms races: atomic weapons, thermonuclear weapons and various kinds of conventional weapons. However, there was another arms race that goes unsung during this period of history and that is in the area of supercomputing. The other types of arms races are taken for granted by historians and others, but the technological competition between the two superpowers would have been impossible without the historically silent arms race in the area of supercomputers. The construction of missiles, jets, as well as the testing of nuclear weapons had serious implications for international relations. Often perception is more important than fact. Perceived power maintained a deterrent effect on the two superpowers. If one superpower suspected it had an advantage over the other then the balance of power would be upset and more aggressive measures might have been taken in various fronts of the conflict, perhaps leading to war. Due to this, it was 1 necessary to maintain a balance of power not only in weapons but in supercomputing as well. Even before the Cold War it was apparent that computing had an important role to play. The onset of the digital age of computing was on the horizon, but not too far in the future. During the mid to late 1920s Vannevar Bush’s Differential Analyzer was the first step on the road of high-speed computing, creating mechanized methods for solving differential equations that were specific for targeting of weaponry. In the 1930s in Great Britain, Alan M.