Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs P.O. Box 4386 Kigali KN 3 Road – KN 1 Ave. – Pension Plaza Toll Free No.: 170 Email: [email protected] The National Risk Atlas Website: http://midimar.gov.rw Twitter: @MIDIMAR_gov of Rwanda The National Risk Atlas of Rwanda ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program An initiative of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group, funded by the European Union and managed by GFDRR THE NATIONAL RISK ATLAS OF RWANDA Copyright @ 2015, Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational, research and/or nonprofit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs (MIDIMAR) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication or article that uses this report as a source. No use of this publication or any of its contents may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing of the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs. This is a Government of Rwanda Publication. For bibliographic and reference purposes, this publication should be referred to as: “MIDIMAR (2015), The National Risk Atlas of Rwanda” To obtain copies of this publication, please contact: MIDIMAR P.O. Box 4386 Kigali KN 3 Road – KN 1 Ave. – Pension Plaza Toll Free No.: 170 Email: [email protected] Website: http://midimar.gov.rw Twitter: @MIDIMAR_gov Printed by: Printing: UNON, Publishing Services Section, Nairobi, ISO 14001:2004 – certified. Job No: 15-01898/ 200 copies Design and Layout: Jinita Shah/ UNON Cover Photos: Herve Villard Habonimana This report is co-financed by the EU-funded ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Financial and technical support including capacity building was provided by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Furthermore, the views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the agencies cooperating in this project. The designations employed and the presentations do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the MIDIMAR or any of the cooperating agencies. Mention of a commercial company or a product in this report does not imply endorsement by MIDIMAR. The use of information from this publication for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention of infringement on trademark or copyright laws. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made Table of Contents Foreword vi Acknowledgements vii Acronyms viii Production and Editorial Teams x List of Figures xi List of Tables xiv Executive Summary xvi Chapter I Introduction 2 1.1 Background 2 1.2 Objectives of the project 3 1.3 Scope of the project 3 1.4 Constraints and challenges 3 1.5 About the national risk atlas 3 1.6 Expected benefits to the nation 3 1.7 Beneficiaries and users 3 1.8 Stakeholders 4 1.8.1 Ministries 4 1.8.2 Governmental institutions 4 1.8.3 Regional organizations 4 1.8.4 United Nations agencies 5 1.9 Rwanda DRM context 5 1.10 Key definition of terms 6 1.11 Structure of the report 8 Chapter II Basic Data and Base Maps 9 2.1 Geography and administrative division 11 2.2 Population 13 2.3 Climate and topography 17 2.4 Land cover 18 2.5 Education 18 2.6 Health facilities 21 2.7 Transportation 23 2.8 Residential buildings 24 2.9 Employment and income 28 2.10 Poverty status 30 2.11 Agriculture and livestock 31 Chapter III Methodological Framework for Hazard and Risk Assessment 33 3.1 Methodology 33 3.1.1 Understanding country situation and baseline data compilation 33 3.1.2 Hazard assessment and mapping 33 3.1.3 Exposure assessment 33 3.1.4 Vulnerability assessment and estimation of economic cost 34 3.2 Limitations 34 III THE NATIONAL RISK ATLAS OF RWANDA Chapter IV Hazard Assessment and Mapping 36 4.1 Drought hazard assessment and mapping 36 4.1.2 Methodology for drought mapping 39 4.1.3 Data requirements and data sources 40 4.1.4 Drought hazard zonation maps 40 4.1.5 Drought hazard analysis 43 4.1.6 Application in disaster management and development planning 44 4.1.7 Limitations 44 4.1.8 Recommendations 44 4.2 Landslide hazard mapping 44 4.2.1 Background 44 4.2.2 Methodology for landslide hazard mapping 46 4.2.3 Data requirements and data sources 47 4.2.4 Slope susceptibility maps 55 4.2.5 Landslide hazard analysis 55 4.2.6 Application in disaster management and development planning 56 4.2.7 Limitations 56 4.2.8 Recommendations 56 4.3 Flood hazard mapping 56 4.3.1 Background 56 4.3.2 Methodology for flood hazard mapping 59 4.3.3 Data requirements and data sources 60 4.3.4 Flood hazard zonation maps 60 4.3.5 Flood hazard analysis 67 4.3.6 Application in disaster management and development planning 67 4.3.7 Limitations 67 4.3.8 Recommendations 68 4.4 Earthquake hazard mapping 68 4.4.1 Background 68 4.4.2 Methodology for earthquake hazard mapping 69 4.4.3 Data requirements, sources and processing of the catalogue 70 4.4.4 Earthquake hazard maps 72 4.4.5 Earthquake hazard analysis 75 4.4.6 Application in disaster management and development planning 76 4.4.7 Limitations 76 4.4.8 Recommendations 76 4.5 Windstorm hazard mapping 77 4.5.1 Background 77 4.5.2 Methodology for windstorm hazard mapping 79 4.5.3 Data requirements and data sources 80 4.5.4 Windstorm hazard zonation maps 80 4.5.5 Windstorm hazard analysis 83 4.5.6 Application in disaster management and development planning 84 4.5.7 Limitations 84 4.5.8 Recommendations 85 IV Chapter V Exposure Assessment 86 5.1 Introduction 86 5.1.1 What is exposure? 86 5.1.2 Objective and scope of the exposure assessment 86 5.2 Methodology for exposure assessment 87 5.2.1 Selection of hazard scenarios 87 5.2.2 Targeted elements at risk 87 5.3 Thematic exposure profiles 87 5.3.1 Exposure to drought 87 5.3.2 Exposure to landslide 93 5.3.3 Exposure to earthquake 104 5.3.4 Exposure to windstorms 112 Chapter VI Vulnerability Assessment 116 6.1 Introduction 116 6.1.1 What is vulnerability assessment? 116 6.1.2 How to use the vulnerability profiles? 116 6.2 Thematic vulnerability profiles 116 6.2.1 Vulnerability to drought 116 6.2.2 Vulnerability to landslide 123 6.2.3 Vulnerability to earthquake 139 6.2.4 Vulnerability to windstorms 149 Chapter VII Estimation of Economic Cost 153 7.1 Introduction 153 7.2 Methodology for estimation of economic cost 153 7.3 Economic cost profiles by hazard 154 7.3.1 Economic costs of elements at risk due to drought 154 7.3.2 Economic costs of elements at risks due to landslide 155 7.3.3 Economic cost of elements at risk due to earthquake 158 7.3.4 Economic cost of elements at risk due to windstorm 159 7.4 Summary of key findings 159 Chapter VIII Applications of the National Risk Atlas 160 8.1 Application of the risk atlas in disaster management 160 8.2 Application of the National Risk Atlas in food security study 161 8.3 Application of the National Risk Atlas to urban development and settlement planning, land use and relocation of population from high-risk zones 162 Chapter IX Recommendations to Enhance Disaster Risk Assessment in Rwanda 163 References 167 Appendix A – National Hazard Profiles 171 Appendix B- National Exposure Profiles 172 V THE NATIONAL RISK ATLAS OF RWANDA Foreword In 2012, the Government of Rwanda through the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs started an assessment of hazards and development of a comprehensive disaster risk profiles of the Country. With a technical and financial support of UNDP Rwanda, the European Union-Africa-Caribbean and Pacific Programme (EU-ACP) through the Global facility for Disaster Risk Reduction of World Bank, MIDIMAR launched in 2013 a project entitled “Development of comprehensive disaster risk profiles for enhancing disaster management in Rwanda”. The objective of the project was to assist the Government of Rwanda to conduct a comprehensive and nationwide assessment of the existing risks with the view of developing a comprehensive disaster risk profiles for Rwanda. The project covered five (5) main hazards mostly impacting Rwanda namely: droughts, floods, landslides, earthquakes and windstorms, which were selected basing on their economic and social negative impacts on the development of our country. This report constitutes the first phase on national risk assessment process. The remaining hazards, both natural and man-made, will be assessed as soon as the requirements will be gathered. The project was largely implemented by a team of consultants in collaboration with different departments, governmental, civil society and private, UN agencies, which intervene in disaster risk management and related fields. The findings highlight main prone areas, and the potential losses in case of hazard occurring. The project produced robust information useful for the planning and necessary preparedness to those hazards and to mitigate the risks our country is facing.