India in evolving shades of Globalization Maximizing benefits and minimizing costs Abhishek’s Take What is Globalization? Globalization is a process that encompasses the causes, courses, and consequences of transnational and transcultural integration of human and non-human activities. Today the word is used to describe the growing interdependence of the world's economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade in goods and services, technology, and flows of investment, people, and information. Economic Survey 2020 Inputs For more than three-fourths of known economic history, India has been the dominant economic power globally (Maddison, 2007). The country has historically been a major wealth creator and a significant contributor to world’s GDP. Economic dominance over such long periods manifests by design, and not by mere chance. Despite such a “rich” tradition of emphasizing wealth creation, India deviated from this model for several decades after independence. However, India returned back to these roots post economic liberalisation in 1991. The exponential rise in India’s GDP and GDP per capita post liberalisation coincides with wealth generation in the stock market Political Carrying Capacity of the West for Openness and Impact on India- Economic survey 2016-17 The first figure plots the trade-GDP ratio for the world since 1870 and highlights four phases. There were two phases of globalisation (1870- 1914, 1945-1985), one phase of hyperglobalisation (Subramanian and Kessler, 2014) between 1985-2008, and one phase of deglobalisation in the inter-war period. The question today is what is likely to happen going forward represented by the three arrows: further globalisation, deglobalisation, or stagnation? These will have potentially important consequences for Indian exports and growth. During the boom years between 2003-2011 India’s real GDP growth averaged 8.2 percent, and exports grew at an annual rate of between 20 and 25 percent (in real dollar terms, for goods and services). So, assume conservatively that India aims to grow at 8 percent for the next decade and that that requires growth in exports of goods and services of 15 percent, respectively India has tended to run a current account deficit, rather than a surplus; and while its service exports might also displace workers in advanced countries, their skill set will make relocation to other service activities easier; indeed, they may well simply move on to complementary tasks, such as more advanced computer programming in the IT sector itself. On the other hand, since skilled labour in advanced economies will be exposed to Indian competition, their ability to mobilize political opinion might also be greater. The political backlash against globalisation in advanced countries, and China’s difficulties in rebalancing its economy, could have major implications for India’s economic prospects .They will need to be watched in the year – and decade – ahead. Why Globalization in India? Peripheral Trigger point: external payment crisis consequent to the first gulf war Core reason: Realization that the economic philosophy that had guided India since independence – self-sufficiency, protection and public sector dominance- had run its course. Present Concern: Technological self-reliance #AtmanirbharBharat Reforms in the Nineties 1. De-reservation of the Industries 2. De-licensing of the Industries 3. Abolition of the MRTP Limit 4. Promotion to Foreign Investment 5. FERA Replaced by FEMA 6. Location of Industries 7. Compulsion of Phased Production Abolished 8. Compulsion to Convert Loans into Shares Abolished 9. Disinvestment 10. import restrictions were largely removed and tariff and non- tariff barriers were sharply scaled down 11. Market determined exchange rate Globalization- Emerging Market Experience Globalization comes with costs and benefits The latin American countries were the first to breakout of the low income trap and dependency syndrome by liberalizing their external sector. But throwing caution to the wind cost them heavily in the form of the Tequila crisis. The East Asian miracle, riding on exporting value-added goods to the world market and thus escaping the limitation of small home markets marks the positive side of globalization. On the other hand, the Asian financial crisis of the late nineties and the devastating toll it took on growth and welfare is a telling reminder of the pitfalls of misguided liberalization. India’s experience with Globalization From 1991-2016, India’s experience with Globalization has been consistent with that of our peer emerging market economies. India experienced unprecedented growth acceleration in the first decade of 2000s, clocking a real output growth of 9+% on average in the 5 year period 2003-8. The negative side of globalization caught up soon thereafter with the outbreak of global financial crisis in sept. 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. How exposed to globalized is India today? India is much more integrated into the global economy than we consciously recognized back in 2008 when we thought India wouldn’t get much affected by the crisis since exports are only a small proportion of India’s GDP. India’s two-way trade, as a proportion of the GDP more than doubled from 20% in 1998-99 to over 40% in 2008-09. This deep trade integration was accompanied by an even greater financial integration. Measured by the ratio of external transactions [in BoP account] to GDP, financial integration had more than doubled from 43% in 1998-99 to 111% in 2008-09. What this integration meant was that if global financial and economic conditions were in turmoil, India could not expect to remain an oasis of calm. Crux ? International experience, including that of India’s, shows that the adverse effects of globalization arose mostly out of financial globalization rather than trade liberalization. The focus therefore has to be on maximising the benefits and minimizing the costs. Benefits of Globalization Improved productivity Comparative advantage Higher exports Faster output growth Access to a more diversified and competitive resource base. Provides domestic investors with risk diversification by investing abroad Higher foreign investments expand production base, employment opportunities, access to better technology and management practices Costs of Globalization 1.Exports can suddenly lose estd. Markets because of : Abrupt and unforeseen supply-demand imbalances Innovation of new products and processes Periodic threats of protectionism International disasters/ pandemics [#Covid-19] 2. Capital flows, in particular, are notoriously fickle subject to sharp surges, sudden stops and abrupt reversals. 3. Taper tantrum triggered by US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke in May, 2013,popularly known as ‘quantitative easing’, that created exchange rate crisis for Indian rupee with 17% depreciation in just 3 months and a continued fall thereafter. 4. Domino effects Managing the costs and benefits of globalization- India’s Agenda Keep the fiscal and current account deficit in check Maintain macroeconomic stability Keep financial stability always on radar Improve productivity Improve ease of doing business Post-Covid-19 scenario #AtmanirbharBharat Addressing the nation on the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the necessity of a self-reliant India. Much has changed since the self-reliance model of the Nehruvian era, so a perspective for Indian self-reliance in science and technology (S&T) and industry in a globalized world is long overdue. Self-reliance in state-run heavy industries and strategic sectors in the decades following independence had placed India ahead of most developing countries. In the 1970s and 80s, however, India did not modernizem these industries to climb higher up the technological ladder. Self-reliant India: A technological aspect India completely missed out on the ‘third industrial revolution’ comprising electronic goods, micro- processors, personal computers, mobile phones and decentralized manufacturing and global value chains during the so-called lost decade(s). At the turn of the millennium, when India embarked on liberalization, privatization and globalisation, the very concept of self-reliance was rubbished, in the belief that it was tantamount to reinventing the wheel when advanced technologies could simply be bought from anywhere at lower costs How the successful did it? Learning from Japan’s post-war success, countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong took huge technological and industrial strides in the 1970s and 80s. South Korea, in particular, climbed determinedly up the technology ladder and value chains in electronic goods, consumer durables, automobiles, micro-processors, personal computers and heavy machinery. It emerged as a global powerhouse in manufacturing, but also in indigenously developed technologies. These self-reliant capabilities were enabled, among other factors, by planned state investments in R&D including basic research (3-5% of GDP), technology and policy support to private corporations, infrastructure and, importantly, education and skill development (4-6% of GDP). What can be India’s Way forward? Globalization is a double edged sword. It offers immense opportunities but also poses harsh challenges. Managing globalization boils down to keeping the borders largely open for flows of goods and services, and only cautiously open for financial flows. The challenge