Environmental impacts and impact on the electricity market of a large scale introduction of electric cars in Europe - Critical Review of Literature - ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2009/4 July 2009 Florian Hacker, Ralph Harthan, Felix Matthes, Wiebke Zimmer The European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) is a consortium of European institutes under contract of the European Environmental Agency RIVM UBA-B UBA-V IIASA NILU AEAT AUTh CHMI DNMI NTUA ÖKO IEP TNO UEA Front page photo: Ralph O. Harthan Author affiliation: Wiebke Zimmer, Florian Hacker, Ralph Harthan, Felix Matthes: Öko-Institut e.V., Berlin, Germany DISCLAIMER This ETC/ACC Technical Paper has not been subjected to European Environment Agency (EEA) member country review. It does not represent the formal views of the EEA. While every care has been taken by the EEA and its ETC/ACC in compiling the informa- tion and analysis, it does not assume any liability, express or implied, with respect to the consequences or uses of the information and analysis contained herein. Throughout this report, any graphs, diagrams, tables, etc. the source of which is a partner to a European Topic Centre (ETC), ETCs being consortia receiving grants from the EEA, are referenced in the following manner: 'ETC partner/ETC/EEA' Table of Contents 1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Context ..................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Structure of the paper................................................................................................................ 8 2 Electric vehicles................................................................................................................................ 11 2.1 Energy storage systems........................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Vehicle concepts..................................................................................................................... 32 2.3 Market overview EVs.............................................................................................................46 3 Market introduction of electric vehicles......................................................................................... 56 3.1 Business models for the introduction and operation of electric cars....................................... 56 3.2 EV potential with regard to use pattern and charging schemes .............................................. 61 3.3 Overview of market penetration scenarios for electric vehicles ............................................. 65 3.4 Policy issues ........................................................................................................................... 73 4 Environmental impacts.................................................................................................................... 91 4.1 Impact on CO2 emissions considering average emission factors............................................ 91 4.2 Impact on CO2 emissions taking into account interactions with the electricity market................................................................................................................................... 101 4.3 Impact on CO2 emissions taking into account interactions with current EU legislation.............................................................................................................................. 119 4.4 Impact on air quality and noise............................................................................................. 126 5 Summary......................................................................................................................................... 132 6 References....................................................................................................................................... 141 7 Glossary .......................................................................................................................................... 165 8 Appendix......................................................................................................................................... 166 8.1 Market overview of further EV/PHEVs ............................................................................... 166 3 List of Tables Table 1: Minimum battery requirements for battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle application with varying electric driving range (literature review) .............. 17 Table 2: Current status of battery technology (literature review) ........................................... 18 Table 3: Cost targets [€/kWh] for automotive battery technology (literature review)...................................................................................................................... 19 Table 4: Estimated material composition of lithium-ion battery system for automotive use (according to DHIN 2001, IPTS 2005)............................................ 23 Table 5: Energy efficiency of the electric propulsion system (plug-to-wheel)....................... 36 Table 6: Energy consumption of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles at different driving situations (literature review). ....................................... 38 Table 7: Selection of available and announced plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles (literature review). ...................................................................................... 49 Table 8: Selection of recently announced pilot projects and co operations between OEMs and utility companies (literature review)....................................................... 53 Table 9: Overview of large-scale charging infrastructure projects (literature review)...................................................................................................................... 58 Table 10: Selection of international initiatives and policies to stimulate the development and deployment of electric vehicles. ................................................... 86 Table 11: Overview of well-to-wheel GHG emissions of electric (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and their benefit compared to average conventional vehicles (CV) considering different average grid mix assumptions (literature review)................................................................................. 95 Table 12: Overview of potential impact of a large-scale introduction of EVs on energy demand and total CO2 emission reduction (literature review). ..................... 98 Table 13: Overview of available and announced plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles – prototypes, concept cars, test fleet and small-scale produced vehicles (literature review). .................................................................................... 166 Table 14: Overview of converted plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles (literature review). .................................................................................................. 168 Table 15: Further electric four-wheel concept vehicles (literature review). .......................... 169 4 List of Figures Figure 1: Power and energy density characteristics of different battery technologies for automotive application (Source: CARB 2007). .................................................. 13 Figure 2: Range of today’s specific cost and future cost targets for battery technology as stated in the literature......................................................................... 20 Figure 3: Global reserves of lithium and cobalt (Source: OEKO 2009). ................................. 24 Figure 4: Global mining and production of lithium and cobalt (Source: OEKO 2009)......................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 5: Range of the price premium of electric vehicles with 100 kilometres electric driving range (30 kWh battery) assuming different battery cost targets (based on literature review, own calculation). .............................................. 41 Figure 6: Energy density of some fuel types (Source: KING 2007). ....................................... 42 Figure 7: Impact of energy density characteristics of current and future (lithium- ion) battery technology on the total weight of batteries for automotive application (own calculations based on literature research). .................................... 44 Figure 8: American driving patterns. Average daily travel distance per vehicle, based on nationwide travel data (Source: WWF 2008). ........................................... 62 Figure 9: Overview of EV and battery technologies and their potential market introduction (Source: BERR 2008a)......................................................................... 68 Figure 10: Market penetration scenarios – share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles on new car sales (literature review). ........................................................... 69 Figure 11: Market penetration rates of different vehicle technologies during the last decades (Source: MIT 2007). ................................................................................... 70 Figure 12: Load profile on a Wednesday considering 20 million electric vehicles being charged starting from 6 p.m. during five hours (Source: [WWF 2009]) ....................................................................................................................