The IDAHO POLITICAL FIELD GUIDE Randy Stapilus RIDENBAUGH PRESS RIDENBAUGH PRESS Carlton, Oregon 3 Introduction The first edition of the Idaho Political Almanac, from Ridenbaugh Press, came out in 1990 ± now 22 years ago. It was intended then as an update and expansion on the Idaho history Paradox Politics, which had come out two years before. Almanacs continued for a while, every two years through 1996. In 1998 we tried a different approach, the Idaho Yearbook/Directory, intended to be an annual publication covering of the same material and more besides. We continued it through 1991, but it began to be a lot of work. After a couple subsidiary projects in early 2002, on influential Idaho people and organizations, we called a halt. We're back now, more or less, with what we're calling the Idaho Political Field Guide (one of three, alongside Oregon and Washington editions), for a few reasons. One is that with the passage of a decade, the time seems right for a look back and a prospective look ahead. Another is technology: The availability of printing on demand, as opposed to printing in large quantities at once, makes it possible to keep these books precisely up to date without accumulating boxes of outdated editions. Our intent is to update this edition periodically, the idea being that whenever you order, you'll be getting a current edition. That's simply an option never available before, and attractive in coping with rapidly changing material like politics. Even Idaho politics. Randy Stapilus Carlton, Oregon March 2012 Acknowledging Lots of people helped with putting all this together. Some of them helped with gathering the statistics, some helping with providing an understanding of what they mean, some with helping point to other useful directions. As always, the Idaho Secretary of State's office was highly helpful (from individual assistance to its fine online resources), and county clerk's offices from one end of the state to the other helped a great deal in providing information and, within the limits of their professional responsibilities, helping me make sense of it. Everyone who has helped me get a better grasp of Idaho politics over the years and especially recently ± really, a list too long for this space ± is hereby thanked. And of course, Linda Watkins at Ridenbaugh Press. 6 1988 Michael Dukakis 147,272 36.01% George Bush 253,881 62.08% 1984 Walter Mondale 108,510 26.39% Ronald Reagan 297,523 72.36% 1980 Jimmy Carter 110,192 25.19% Ronald Reagan 290,699 66.46% 1976 Jimmy Carter 126,549 37.12% Gerald Ford 204,151 59.88% 1972 George McGovern 80,826 26.04% Richard Nixon 199,384 64.24% 1968 Hubert Humphrey 89,273 30.66% Richard Nixon 165,369 56.79% 1964 Lyndon Johnson 148,920 50.92% Barry Goldwater 143,557 49.08% 1960 John Kennedy 138,853 46.22% Richard Nixon 161,597 53.78% Counties. A look at the split of counties won by the contenders best focuses on those won by Democrats ± the shorter list. n 2008 ± Blaine, Latah, Teton. n 2004 ± Blaine. n 2000 ± Blaine. n 1996 ± Blaine, Latah, Nez Perce, Shoshone. n 1992 ± Benewah, Blaine, Bonner, Clearwater, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone. n 1988 ± Clearwater, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone. n 1984 ± none. n 1980 ± none. n 1976 - Clearwater, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce. n 1972 ± none. n 1968 ± Benewah, Clearwater, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone. n 1964 ± Adams, Bannock, Bear Lake, Benewah, Blaine, Boise, Bonner, Boundary, Butte, Caribou, Clearwater, Elmore, Fremont, Gem, Idaho, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Power, Shoshone, Valley, Washington. n 1960 ± Bannock, Benewah, Blaine, Bonner, Boundary, Butte, Camas, Clearwater, Custer, Elmore, Idaho, Kootenai, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone. In five of the last 10 presidential elections in Idaho, Republicans have won 43 or 44 of the state's 44 counties. On the presidential level, the strongest Democratic/weakest Republican county in recent cycles has been Blaine, though only since the 90s. Precincts (2008 presidential). Generally, as in many other cases, the best precincts for Democrats are among the most urban, the best for Republicans the most rural. The presidential contest requires some variation. Some of Democrat Obama's best precincts were in not only Boise but in the Wood River Valley, in the smaller-town (but urban-feeling) Ketchum and Hailey, and in the smallish Moscow (but in the university- influenced areas). 8 25 Blaine 008 Hailey #3 261 458 35.18% 61.73% 6 Latah Absentee 1310 2168 37.03% 61.28% 19 Ada 87 588 983 36.43% 60.90% 6 Latah Moscow 13 144 244 35.91% 60.85% 6 Latah Moscow 15 230 389 35.94% 60.78% 16 Ada 33 536 893 36.31% 60.50% 2 Shoshone 2 Mullan 122 193 37.31% 59.02% 6 Latah Moscow 14 193 310 35.87% 57.62% 31 Bonneville 57 3 0 25.00% 0.00% Best precincts for Republican McCain, many of which are in rural areas. A variation: Many of his best precincts are in Madison County, very much a university as well as a farm area. But the difference in voting patterns shows the difference between the University of Idaho at Moscow and Brigham Young University-Idaho at Rexburg. 23 Owyhee 05 Pleasant Valley 63 1 98.44% 1.56% 27 Cassia 112 Elba 97 2 97.98% 2.02% 35 Butte Howe 156 6 96.30% 3.70% 31 Caribou Wayan 32 1 94.12% 2.94% 31 Caribou Freedom 57 2 93.44% 3.28% 27 Cassia 125 View 149 7 93.13% 4.38% 27 Cassia 110 Bridge 38 2 92.68% 4.88% 31 Franklin Banida-Winder #6 119 8 92.25% 6.20% 31 Bear Lake #5 Bennington 145 10 91.77% 6.33% 27 Cassia 118 Oakley 2 282 20 90.97% 6.45% 34 Madison 11 178 16 90.82% 8.16% 34 Madison 19 478 44 90.70% 8.35% 27 Cassia 109 Almo 77 7 89.53% 8.14% 34 Madison 3 742 76 89.08% 9.12% 27 Power 5 88 11 88.89% 11.11% 34 Madison 15 811 82 88.83% 8.98% 35 Clark #3 119 13 88.81% 9.70% 25 Lincoln Kimama #6 23 2 88.46% 7.69% 27 Cassia 114 Heglar-Yale 69 6 88.46% 7.69% 27 Oneida Holbrook 6 53 4 88.33% 6.67% 34 Madison 6 710 86 88.31% 10.70% 27 Cassia 116 Malta 211 12 88.28% 5.02% 23 Owyhee 12 Three Creek 15 2 88.24% 11.76% 34 Madison 13 127 15 88.19% 10.42% 21 Ada 125 44 4 88.00% 8.00% 31 Caribou Bancroft 311 30 87.85% 8.47% 34 Fremont 4 Drummond/ 92 13 87.62% 12.38% Lamont/Squirrel 10 the only county-level jurisdictions he has ever lost; he won all the 2nd district counties in 1994 and 1996. The seat. The seat has some Idaho history attached: It was held for four terms by Democrat Frank Church, the only Democrat in Idaho history ever re-elected to the Senate. Before Kempthorne's one term starting in 1992, it was held for two terms by Republican Steve Symms, who had defeated Church. Before Church, it was held by Republican (and Joe McCarthy ally) Herman Welker, and the term before that by Democrat Glen Taylor. It's in considerable contrast to the other Senate seat, which has been in Republican hands continuously for much longer. Sen Democrat Republican 2010 Tom Sullivan 112,057 24.90% Mike Crapo 319,953 71.20% 2004 - - - Mike Crapo 499,796 99.20% 1998 Bill Mauk 107,375 28.40% Mike Crapo 262,966 69.50% 1992 Richard Stallings 208,036 43.50% Dirk Kempthorne 270,468 56.50% 1986 John Evans 185,066 48.40% Steve Symms 196,958 51.60% 1980 Frank Church 214,439 48.78% Steve Symms 218,701 49.74% MICHAEL CRAPO, R-Idaho Falls Office: http://crapo.senate.gov/ Campaign: Background: Born, raised Idaho Falls. Attorney, Holden, Kidwell, Hahn & Crapo, 1979-1992. Attorney, Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher, 1978-1979. JD, Harvard University, 1977 BA, Political Science, Brigham Young University, 1973. Political: Elected to Idaho Senate 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990. Elected Senate president pro tem, 1988, 1990. Elected to U.S. House 2nd district, 1992, 1994, 1996. Elected to U.S. Senate 1998, 2004, 2010. Senate-Junior: Jim Risch (R) Jim Risch has been in electoral politics in Idaho longer than anyone else at a leading level, since 1972 as an Ada County county prosecutor and 1974 in the state senate. There have been a few losses along the way, but he has become one of the most successful political figures in Idaho history. A forestry major from Wisconsin at the University of Idaho, he made a late move to law school, becoming an attorney. Moving to Boise, he went to 13 government, governor and lieutenant governor, since they were first won by Batt. The last lieutenant governor to move up to governor, by the way, was Risch in 2006, when Governor Dirk Kempthorne left to become secretary of the interior. Symmetry: The last before that (in 1977) was Democrat John Evans, who became governor when Cecil Andrus became interior secretary. Before that, the last was Arnold Williams in 1945, who became governor after his predecessor, Charles Gossett, appointed himself to the U.S. Senate. (Gossett and Williams both lost election in 1946) Counties. In his first statewide elections, Little just barely missed a clean sweep. He won all 44 counties in his 2010 primary, but missed Blaine County in the general election.