PUBLISHED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION JULY-AUGUST 2019 FACING A RISING CHINA MESSAGE FROM THE HILL THE LANGUAGE OF DRESS FOREIGN SERVICE July-August 2019 Volume 96, No. 6 Focus on Managing Competition with China 37 Dealing with the Dragon To reach a new understanding with Beijing, we need to appreciate China’s history—and the worldview and expectations that motivate its leaders. By Philip A. Shull 41 The United States and China at a Crossroads ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/NAUMAX Statesmanship and creativity are needed as Washington and 25 32 Beijing renegotiate a relationship Is American Diplomacy U.S.-China Trade: that is too big to fail. with China Dead? If We Get to Yes, By Henry M. Paulson Jr. China’s rise in a rapidly changing Will It Make Any world presents a challenge that Difference? 45 only strategic, patient, firm coalition A trade agreement with China diplomacy can meet successfully. will be good news in the short term, From the FSJ Archive: By Susan A. Thornton but the path to lasting improvement Sino-American Relations in the relationship, as well as political Through the Years success for President Trump, A sampling of the ups and downs is a narrow one. over the past century. By William A. Reinsch Message from Feature the Hill 48 13 The Language Support Our Diplomats of Dress to Maintain U.S. In Washington’s diplomatic Leadership community, fashion and By Representative diplomacy go hand in hand. Ann Wagner By Martha Thomas THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2019 5 FOREIGN SERVICE Editor-in-Chief, Director of Publications Shawn Dorman: [email protected] www.afsa.org Senior Editor Susan Brady Maitra: [email protected] Managing Editor CONTACTS Kathryn Owens: [email protected] AFSA Headquarters: ADVOCACY Associate Editors (202) 338-4045; Fax (202) 338-6820 Director of Advocacy Donna Gorman: [email protected] State Department AFSA Office: Kim Greenplate: [email protected] Cameron Woodworth: [email protected] (202) 647-8160; Fax (202) 647-0265 USAID AFSA Office: BUSINESS DEPARTMENT Publications Coordinator (202) 712-1941; Fax (202) 216-3710 Director of Finance and Facilities Dmitry Filipoff: [email protected] FCS AFSA Office: Femi Oshobukola: [email protected] Advertising Manager (202) 482-9088; Fax (202) 482-9087 Controller Allan Saunders: [email protected] Kalpna Srimal: [email protected] GOVERNING BOARD Controller, Accounts Payable and Art Director President Administration Caryn Suko Smith Hon. 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Opinions expressed in Raeka Safai: [email protected] advertisements are the views of the advertisers and do FAS Alternate Representative Senior Staff Attorneys not necessarily represent AFSA views or policy. Journal Thom Wright Zlatana Badrich: [email protected] subscription: AFSA member–$20, included in annual USAGM Representative Neera Parikh: [email protected] dues; student–$30; others–$50; Single issue–$4.50. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign airmail, Steve Herman Labor Management Counselor $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., APHIS Representative Colleen Fallon-Lenaghan: and at additional mailing offices. Indexed by the Public Jeffery Austin [email protected] Affairs Information Services (PAIS). Retiree Representatives Senior Labor Management Advisor Email: [email protected] Hon. Alphonse “Al” La Porta James Yorke: [email protected] Phone: (202) 338-4045 Philip A. Shull Labor Management Coordinator Fax: (202) 338-8244 Patrick Bradley: [email protected] Web: www.afsa.org/fsj STAFF Grievance Counselor Chief Operating Officer Heather Townsend: [email protected] © American Foreign Service Association, 2019 Russ Capps: [email protected] Law Clerk PRINTED IN THE U.S.A. Senior Adviser, Strategic Communications Benjamin Phillips: [email protected] Lynne Platt: [email protected] Postmaster: Send address changes to AFSA, Attn: Address Change Office Coordinator PROFESSIONAL POLICY ISSUES 2101 E Street NW Therese Thomas: [email protected] Director of Professional Policy Issues Washington DC 20037-2990 Staff Assistant Julie Nutter: [email protected] Allysa Reimer: [email protected] 6 JULY-AUGUST 2019 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FOREIGN SERVICE Perspectives 82 Local Lens Departments Ostia Antica, Italy 8 By Matthew L. Horner 11 Letters President’s Views Passing the Baton 15 Talking Points By Barbara Stephenson 65 In Memory 10 70 Books Letter from the Editor Facing a Rising China By Shawn Dorman 21 Marketplace Speaking Out Reforming State’s Personnel 74 Classifieds System Could Work This Time 76 Real Estate By Ronald E. Neumann 80 Index to Advertisers 81 Reflections The Paris Waiter: A Life Lesson By John Treacy AFSA NEWS THE OFFICIAL RECORD OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION 52 AFSA Welcomes Members Ahead 60 AFSA Rolls Out Economic Diplomacy of Foreign Service Day Animated Video 54 New Resources for AFSA Outreach 60 Moving? AAFSW Needs Your Books 54 Letters to the Editor Campaign Spreads and Other Donations Awareness 61 Meet the 2019 AFSA Merit Award Winners 55 Next Stage: FS Writers and Publishers Offer Advice 56 State VP Voice—Like a Rock 57 FCS VP Voice—A Small Player Generates Big Returns 57 Retiree VP Voice—Challenges Facing AFSA 58 AFSA Welcomes Newest Foreign Service Members 58 Retirees Tour Muse Vineyards 59 FSJ Wins for Publishing Excellence 59 Governing Board Meeting, May 2019 58 On the Cover—Managing Competition with China. Image by istockphoto.com/AnneCordon. Inset: iStockphoto.com/gawriloff THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JULY-AUGUST 2019 7 PRESIDENT’S VIEWS Passing the Baton BY BARBARA STEPHENSON or this, my 40th and final column first column about how within minutes The PDP requirement for at least two as your AFSA president, I sought of being sworn in with the Strong Diplo- greater hardship tours further compli- and received support from the macy board, we had the opportunity to cates bidding. And with so many Foreign FAFSA Governing Board to include a welcome the 183rd A-100 class to AFSA Service positions pulled from Moscow, message from AFSA’s incoming president, headquarters. We felt such pride in our Kabul, Baghdad, Erbil, Basra, Havana and Ambassador Eric Rubin. This gives me a profession that day, and in the continu- Caracas during the past two years, many chance to pass the baton to AFSA’s terrific ity of one generation to the next. of you struggle to find an onward assign- new leadership team, right up front, in the I spoke to that group of new FSOs ment overseas. opening pages of the FSJ. about what our pledge to worldwide During my presidency, AFSA pressed I am deeply honored that Ambas- availability means in practice. We commit relentlessly for a concerted effort to sador Rubin plans to continue with the to serve in remote corners of the globe, restore the position base at our overseas priorities set by the Governing Board often in unsafe and unhealthy conditions, missions. This is critical for rebalancing that I led for four years. I am so pleased where good schools for our kids and jobs the system and restoring a career path so that he chose to show this commitment for our spouses are scarce, where duty and members of the Foreign Service can get by adopting “Strong Diplomacy” as the danger go hand in hand. the experience they need to develop into name of his slate. I am also honored that We master diplomacy in large part tomorrow’s leaders. And it would solve Ambassador Rubin asked me to officiate through on-the-job training, moving to a the immediate need to get a full Foreign at the July 15 ceremony, swearing him in different job, often a different continent, Service team in the field to avoid losing as AFSA’s new president. He will then, in every two or three years, never able to fully ground to rising powers, such as China.